Poling Disinformation

[Van]

RCP Average Date

Trump (R)
Harris (D)

Average Spread in Battleground States
10/23

T48.3 H 47.2
Trump +1.1

Arizona October 23rd
T49.1 H47.3 Trump +1.8

Nevada October 23rd
T47.8 H46.9 Trump +0.9

Wisconsin October 23rd
T48.3 H47.9 Trump +0.4

Michigan October 23rd
T48.4 H47.2 Trump +1.2

Pennsylvania October 23rd
T47.9 H47.1 Trump +0.8

North Carolina October 23rd
T48.0 H47.6 Trump +0.4

Georgia October 23rd
T48.9 H46.4 Trump +2.5

These figures feed the narrative the race is too close to call, and either side might win. Compare these figures with the results available on November 6, two weeks from today.

 

[kyredneck]

too close to call

...yea, but just close enough to cheat and get away with it.

 

[Van]

If you add up the polling numbers about 3.5% of those polled either said they were not voting, voting for another candidate, or they had not decided. At least one pollster thinks the election is baked in, and some of the 3.5% are Trump voters who chose to hide their preference. Of course on the other side, anyone who sees a "red wave" has a very short memory.

 

[Van]

Today, November 2, the RCP battleground polls says Mr. Trump has lost ground in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, but has gained ground or held steady in all the rest.

If these November 2 Polls are correct, and the actual results do not differ in VP Harris favor, Mr. Trump wins back the Presidency.
If, OTOH, Mr. Trump loses Pennsylvania, where he still holds a slight lead (.4%) he loses the election.

Thus, according to the RCP poll average, this election could be determined by the deep blue urban areas of Pennsylvania.
Popcorn?

 

[777]

I don't see that at all, all I'm seeing is a bunch of statistical ties, so it's going to depend on turnout if that's true. I'm more interested in the House races, pretty sure the Senate will turm R.

It would be a little harder for Kamala if she loses PA - more paths to victory for Trump if he lost. The fraud will be much harder this time.

 

[kyredneck]

I'm more interested in the House races

Wow, I didn't know it was so close.

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 House Of Representatives Election? | FiveThirtyEight

 

[Benjamin]

I've been thinking this is going to be like Reagan's victory and find any polls claiming a close race as unbelievable and suspect they are probably designed to cover up a last minute squeaker in hopes that some magical numbers can appear overnight and can be passed off as actually believable.

Rasmussen Head Pollster Predicts Major Trump Landslide Victory

However, honestly, I'm trying not to get my hopes up after what happened last tine but my confidence is high and I feel like a child waiting for Christmas morning awaiting the gift of a new President and a New Golden Age coming upon this great nation.

 

[percho]

I hope these people doing these close polls don't tell me it's raining.

How close to, "the truth,' do you believe the polls to be?

Methinks they are close for purpose.

 

[Van]

RCP Average Date

Trump (R)
Harris (D)

Average Spread in Battleground States
10/23

T48.3 H 47.2
Trump +1.1

Arizona October 23rd
T49.1 H47.3 Trump +1.8

Nevada October 23rd
T47.8 H46.9 Trump +0.9

Wisconsin October 23rd
T48.3 H47.9 Trump +0.4

Michigan October 23rd
T48.4 H47.2 Trump +1.2

Pennsylvania October 23rd
T47.9 H47.1 Trump +0.8

North Carolina October 23rd
T48.0 H47.6 Trump +0.4

Georgia October 23rd
T48.9 H46.4 Trump +2.5

These figures feed the narrative the race is too close to call, and either side might win. Compare these figures with the results available on November 6, two weeks from today.

Actual results as of November 6, 2024 (AP estimate)

Trump up
Arizona - 4.7% or plus 2.9% over poll
Nevada - 4.7% or plus 3.8% over poll
Wisconsin - .9% or plus .5% over poll
Michigan - 1.6% or plus .4% over poll
Pennsylvania - 2.3% or plus 1.5% over poll
North Carolina - 3.4% or plus 3.0% over poll
Georgia - 2.3% or minus .2% under poll.

According to these numbers, 3 polls were accurate (Wis, Mic, and Geo) but 4 were biased in favor of Harris by an average of
2.8%.

 

[777]

the later state polling wasn't so bad - if you look at it closely, most resultswerre within the margin of error, albeit always in Kamala's favor. I saw the other day that Trump was ahead in all or six of the seven battleground state, and he did win them. Polling is an unexact science and should be treated as such.