What I see is, contradicting polling data...
There are no contradictions. A vast majority of people like the promises being made ("more jobs", "lower prescription drug prices", etc), but don't think that the President is actually doing a good job. What the President says and does are two different things.
...just like we saw in the 2016 election.
No contradiction there either. Trump was unlikely to win the election, although he still had a modest chance to do so. Too many commentators assumed that the small chance of winning meant that there was no chance of winning. It just proves that many don't understand probability.
Trump was supposed to lose the electoral college in a landslide, and had a landslide victory.
Not quite a landslide, but it was a clear victory in the Electoral College. The Electoral College is designed to give a winner a substantial margin of victory, no matter what the raw vote tallies say. Candidate Trump lost the raw (aka popular vote) by a substantial amount.
The steel trade deal is going to win big. You watch.
I work for a company that designs and constructs huge projects. A memo went out to all employees yesterday that we are potentially going to have an unstable year until we see what happens to the price of steel. We have fixed-price contract out already for projects that have significant amounts of steel and aluminum in them that may cause us to lose millions of dollars in revenue because of the sudden and volatile effects of trying to artificially manipulate these commodities. So the steel and aluminum tariffs are likely to have a strongly NEGATIVE effect on the US economy over the next two years. I doubt our "stable genius" thought about that before he suddenly announced tariffs to the surprise of his own staff.
Historically, tariffs and trade wars end poorly for everyone.