Stocks Rise 108% during Obama Presidency

[Zaac]

Obama Stocks Among Best After Re-Election as Rally Tested

Even with the flawed roll out of health-care reform and uproar over spying, Barack Obama is enjoying one of the best stock markets for a re-elected president. Signs are building that it might not last.

This year’s 24 percent jump in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is the third-biggest annual rally after a president was returned to office since the 1930s, trailing Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The index has climbed 108 percent since Obama became president, adding more than $10 trillion in equity market value.

Record Federal Reserve stimulus, interest rates around zero percent and a doubling of corporate profits since they fell to a five-year low in 2008 helped sustain stock increases under Obama. The rally that began just after he took office now exceeds the average length of bull markets by almost a year and valuations are up 18 percent in 2013. Add to that prospects for the Fed to curtail stimulus, threatening higher borrowing costs, and the outlook for further gains under Obama is grimmer.

“The president came in at a highly unusual time with markets in complete disarray,” Chad Morganlander, a Florham Park, New Jersey-based portfolio manager at Stifel Nicolaus & Co., which oversees about $130 billion, said by phone Nov. 6. “After the rally this year, we’re fairly valued at best. The next stage of this will have to be an improving economic outlook and earnings outlook well above where we stand.”

Republican Returns
While history shows re-elected Republicans have had better stock-market performance, with an average 5 percent gain in the first year of their second terms compared with a 1.2 percent loss for Democrats, 2013 is on track for the best return in a decade. This year’s rally in the S&P 500 is the broadest ever, with shares of Assurant Inc., Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL) and 442 more companies rising, data since 1990 compiled by Bloomberg show.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...-after-re-election-as-bull-market-tested.html

Now NOBODY should be able to find anything negative about this. Right?:thumbsup:

 

[Alcott]

Wrong. My holdings have gone down. And what would it mean, but the one percent are richer?

 

[poncho]

Wrong. My holdings have gone down. And what would it mean, but the one percent are richer?

Yep. The title of this thread should read "The transfer of our national wealth to the transnational banking and corporate elite has increased by 108% during Obama's presidency."

 

[annsni]

Ours dropped significantly but then are just about back to where it was a few years ago.

 

[webdog]

Quantitative easing. There is a reason the fed left the rates where they were and didn't slow down bond buying. The market will crash worse than '08 if they did.

 

[thisnumbersdisconnected]

With quantitative easing being forced on the economy, most likely at the behest of the Great Pretender, it is no wonder the markets are up. In fact, they are up despite, rather than "because of" anything the reigning moron has done to the economy. The Dow is predicted by many to hit 5,000 before it hits 20,000. People are buying for no good reason, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy of "good times in the market." But there is no economy behind the "boom." There are only eager investors with money to spend, with no logical expectation that a bull market is going to continue. Typically they last five years. Guess how many years we're coming up on for this market?

To quote those idiotic commercials on TV, "buy gold."

 

[poncho]

With quantitative easing being forced on the economy, most likely at the behest of the Great Pretender, it is no wonder the markets are up. In fact, they are up despite, rather than "because of" anything the reigning moron has done to the economy. The Dow is predicted by many to hit 5,000 before it hits 20,000. People are buying for no good reason, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy of "good times in the market." But there is no economy behind the "boom." There are only eager investors with money to spend, with no logical expectation that a bull market is going to continue. Typically they last five years. Guess how many years we're coming up on for this market?

To quote those idiotic commercials on TV, "buy gold."

Better hurry before China buys it all.

 

[InTheLight]

Is the bond buying program helping the stock market? Yes. Is it the only thing propelling it? No.

The fact that the Federal Reserve is buying bonds to stimulate the economy and keeping interest rates low not a secret. That factor is already baked into the bull market. What is really propelling the stock market is corporate earnings, or profits. From the article:


Record Federal Reserve stimulus, interest rates around zero percent and a doubling of corporate profits since they fell to a five-year low in 2008 helped sustain stock increases under Obama.

The reason why QE is helping the stock market is because there is virtually no money to be made in interest bearing investments. Hence, investors are plowing money into the stock market.

The fact that the Federal Reserve will taper QE is also not a secret. When they start tapering the market will react with a correction, as expected, but we won't see a crash because corporate earnings are decent to very good.

 

[Don]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...-after-re-election-as-bull-market-tested.html

Obama Stocks Among Best After Re-Election as Rally Tested

Even with the flawed roll out of health-care reform and uproar over spying, Barack Obama is enjoying one of the best stock markets for a re-elected president. Signs are building that it might not last.

This year’s 24 percent jump in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is the third-biggest annual rally after a president was returned to office since the 1930s, trailing Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The index has climbed 108 percent since Obama became president, adding more than $10 trillion in equity market value.

Record Federal Reserve stimulus, interest rates around zero percent and a doubling of corporate profits since they fell to a five-year low in 2008 helped sustain stock increases under Obama. The rally that began just after he took office now exceeds the average length of bull markets by almost a year and valuations are up 18 percent in 2013. Add to that prospects for the Fed to curtail stimulus, threatening higher borrowing costs, and the outlook for further gains under Obama is grimmer.

“The president came in at a highly unusual time with markets in complete disarray,” Chad Morganlander, a Florham Park, New Jersey-based portfolio manager at Stifel Nicolaus & Co., which oversees about $130 billion, said by phone Nov. 6. “After the rally this year, we’re fairly valued at best. The next stage of this will have to be an improving economic outlook and earnings outlook well above where we stand.”

Republican Returns
While history shows re-elected Republicans have had better stock-market performance, with an average 5 percent gain in the first year of their second terms compared with a 1.2 percent loss for Democrats, 2013 is on track for the best return in a decade. This year’s rally in the S&P 500 is the broadest ever, with shares of Assurant Inc., Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL) and 442 more companies rising, data since 1990 compiled by Bloomberg show.

Now NOBODY should be able to find anything negative about this. Right?:thumbsup:

Oh, please. The whole article starts out with a "cautionary" note (see bolded). Further, the same article goes on to say:

“It’s unusual that we’ve gone so long without at least a correction,” Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC, said from Philadelphia in a Nov. 6 phone interview. His firm oversees $58 billion. “If you just look at this from a valuation perspective, the market is rich. That doesn’t mean we have to crash, but it does suggest that going forward, your return assumptions for U.S. equities should be much more muted than they have been.”
....
Wall Street strategists say the S&P 500 will fall in the next two months, slipping 2.4 percent to 1,728 this year, according to the average of 19 estimates compiled by Bloomberg. This year’s rally has made stocks more expensive, with the index trading at 16.8 times reported earnings, compared with about 14.2 in January.
....
“Clearly earnings growth has been slowing,” Walter Todd, chief investment officer at Greenwood Capital Associates LLC in Greenwood, South Carolina, said in a Nov. 7 phone interview. He helps manage $950 million. “We’re going to have to navigate that slowdown in earnings and monetary policy things like tapering. By definition it’s going to be harder to keep going higher like this.”

This isn't a "negative" report, or a "negative" reply. This article was written to show the positives of what's been happening; but also as a caution to expect higher-priced stocks, as well as muted returns on those stocks. In fact, one part of the article actually says:

...this period has been so mightily different because the Fed is doing a totally unconventional thing here.

 

[Bro. Curtis]

Zaac doesn't like to worry about temporal things. He's focused on Christ, remember. The politics of our economic situation is an evil diversion.

 

[Zaac]

Wrong. My holdings have gone down. And what would it mean, but the one percent are richer?

Does this change the truthfulness of the title though?

 

[Zaac]

Yep. The title of this thread should read "The transfer of our national wealth to the transnational banking and corporate elite has increased by 108% during Obama's presidency."

Hey it didn't say anything about where the increases have been. :laugh:

 

[Crabtownboy]

A question for Alcott and annasi ... do you select your own stock purchases or do you have an adviser or broker who dies this? If you would like to discuss investing I would be glad to do so, either in a thread or by private messages. Alcott, if you are allowing another person to make your decisions, fire them and start doing your own research. This year it has been a hard market to not make money.

Three industries to look at:

3D printing
Robotics
In-flight wireless communications.

I found early on that, at least for me, the fastest way to lose money was to go by the advise of brokers and advisers. So, I made a hard and fast rule to never buy something they recommend simply because they recommend it.

I do my own research and as I do not have a background to do fundamental analysis I read up on a company I am interested in and then go by the point and figure chart. This has served me very well over the years. I was never a highly paid employee as I was not in management.

To ToThisNumberDisconnected --- I am sure you can find those who make the prediction you made. However, that does not mean a lot. It ties in with my comments above about advisers and brokers. Ignore them. Do your own research.

The point and figure chart on the Dow Industrial give an upward projection of 16000. Will it go higher than that? I don't know and would not venture a prediction until I get another signal on the point and figure chart.

The following is from stockcharts.com

 

[Don]

CTB - your trend chart is meaningless without the division of time over which the increase occurred.

 

[Crabtownboy]

CTB - your trend chart is meaningless without the division of time over which the increase occurred.

Don, point and figure charts do not have timelines like many other charting methods. You see the time by looking at a column. Numbers 1 to 9 show the months January to September. The letters A, B, and C stand for the first move in the months of Oct., Nov., and Dec. If the stock does not vary enough to fill a new block, or does not reverse the value of 3 blocks, no mark is made. Many people are confused with no traditional timeline. Time is meaningless. The trend is what is important.

Currently for the Dow Industrial Average the value of a box is 50 points. If it hits 15,800 a new X will be placed in the current row. If it reverses to 15,600 a new row of O's will be made. In rows the X's are the price going up, the O's are the price going down.

This is the only charting method I know of that actually gives projections up and down. They are not always right, but they are good indicators.

I have found it a very useful charting method. One I have used for over 30 years. Go to stockcharts.com and read up on them.

 

[Revmitchell]

 

[InTheLight]

LOL! I saw that Miley was in the news this morning for smoking a joint on stage and was wondering how/why she's fallen so far and also what her dad thinks of her now

 

[Crabtownboy]

Don, and anyone else interested.

Here is a link where you can find instructions on point and figure charts. I have found P&F charts very valuable in selecting stocks to buy and when to sell.

http://support.stockcharts.com/forums/30077/entries/21293

 

[Don]

Thanks, CTB; I use trend lines in Excel based on time periods. I'll compare the two methods when I get some time.

 

[Bro. James]

Where will the stock market be when: "Babylon the Great is fallen, is fallen, and is become the habitation of devils..." See Rev. 18, the whole chapter. Chapter 17 is relevant as well.

Trusting in uncertain riches has never produced eternal rewards.

Invest in the kingdom of God--the rewards last forever. No 401ks in heaven.

Even so, come, Lord Jesus.

Bro. James

P.S. The P.I. really needs more help.