Support for Trump has plunged, giving Clinton a double-digit lead

[Crabtownboy]

Support for Donald Trump has plunged as he has alienated fellow Republicans and large majorities of voters overall in the course of a month of self-inflicted controversies, propelling Democrat Hillary Clinton to a double-digit lead nationally ina new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

The survey finds sweeping unease with the presumptive Republican nominee’s candidacy — from his incendiary rhetoric and values to his handling of both terrorism and his own business — foreshadowing that the November election could be a referendum on Trump more than anything else.

Roughly two in three Americans say they think Trump is unqualified to lead the nation; are anxious about the idea of him as president; believe his comments about women, minorities and Muslims show an unfair bias; and see his attacks on a federal judge because of his Mexican American heritage as racist.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...65bef6-3a31-11e6-a254-2b336e293a3c_story.html

 

[Jedi Knight]

Support for Donald Trump has plunged as he has alienated fellow Republicans and large majorities of voters overall in the course of a month of self-inflicted controversies, propelling Democrat Hillary Clinton to a double-digit lead nationally ina new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

The survey finds sweeping unease with the presumptive Republican nominee’s candidacy — from his incendiary rhetoric and values to his handling of both terrorism and his own business — foreshadowing that the November election could be a referendum on Trump more than anything else.

Roughly two in three Americans say they think Trump is unqualified to lead the nation; are anxious about the idea of him as president; believe his comments about women, minorities and Muslims show an unfair bias; and see his attacks on a federal judge because of his Mexican American heritage as racist.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...65bef6-3a31-11e6-a254-2b336e293a3c_story.html

 

[Jedi Knight]

It's ain't over till the fat lady is indited.

 

[Crabtownboy]

It's ain't over till the fat lady is indited. View attachment 691

And the Fat Lady is the Electoral College. Neither Trump nor Clinton will be indited.

 

[Zaac]

It's ain't over till the fat lady is indited indicted View attachment 691

Hold your breath. As much as silly Republicans want it to be the case, she hasn't done anything over which she will be indicted.

If some of you cared as much about people as you do some stupid emails, you might be half decent people.

 

[InTheLight]

Trump's response to this poll showing him losing by 12%?

It's rigged.

Sent from my Motorola Droid Turbo

 

[Zaac]

Trump's response to this poll showing him losing by 12%?

It's rigged.

Sent from my Motorola Droid Turbo

Straight from the mother ship. They decided about mid-last year that "rigged" was gonna be the word for this election cycle.

 

[777]

Well, the polls sure were wrong about Brexit, and this poll is highly suspect as well because:


“This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone June 20-23, 2016, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,001 adults, including 836 registered voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points, including the design effect, for the full sample, and 4 points for registered voters. Partisan divisions are 36-24-33 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents, in the full sample, 37-27-30 among registered voters.”

That's over-polling Democrats, under-polling Republican and greatly under-polling Independents. But that's what it must take to give Hillary a lead these days.

 

[InTheLight]

Partisan divisions are 36-24-33 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents, in the full sample, 37-27-30 among registered voters.”

That's over-polling Democrats, under-polling Republican and greatly under-polling Independents. But that's what it must take to give Hillary a lead these days.

So both Trump and Clinton are picking up 15% of voters outside their party. If I were a Dem, I'd be doing cartwheels.

Also consider that the percent of registered Dems is about 10% greater than Reps.

Sorry, but there's no way to spin this.

Sent from my Motorola Droid Turbo

 

[777]

No, now there's more Independents than either of them:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/188096/democratic-republican-identification-near-historical-lows.aspx

so the internals should read 29/26/43 instead of 36-24-33 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents.

Even when you push it, Democrats only have a 3 point lead in party ID. This poll is both push and spin.

 

[InTheLight]

No, now there's more Independents than either of them:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/188096/democratic-republican-identification-near-historical-lows.aspx

so the internals should read 29/26/43 instead of 36-24-33 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents.

Even when you push it, Democrats only have a 3 point lead in party ID. This poll is both push and spin.

Don't know why you say "no" to my statement and then mention there are more independents than either party. I never said anything about independents.

Anyway, here is a poll that shows Dems have a 9 point lead over Reps.

The biggest change in partisan affiliation in recent years is the growing share of Americans who decline to affiliate with either party: 39% call themselves independents, 32% identify as Democrats and 23% as Republicans, based on aggregated data from 2014.

http://www.people-press.org/2015/04/07/a-deep-dive-into-party-affiliation/

In your Gallup Poll the Dems still have a lead, not 9% as in the Pew Research Poll, but 3%. But 2015 was the lowest level for Democrats in a generation, probably ever. When you probe further into which way independents lean, you also see an advantage for Dems. Now consider that 48% of the Republicans would rather have someone else other than Trump running, I can foresee the gap widening back to 2008 levels or even wider when this poll is taken next year.

 

[777]

What my "no" was supposed to mean is that I don't agree at all that this poll is valid - they still got the D/R/I thing wrong even by your older Pew numbers.

Independents will continue to increase, Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders. Most of Bernie's supporters hate the Democratic Party now.

This IS a push poll, no doubt about it - does anybody really think that Hillary is wildly popular and has any chance of winning by twelve points? Twelve points??? These are the numbers you get with an incumbent running against an unknown, not with these two.

WaPo and ABC are either lying to their readers, themselves, or both. They could've weighed the respondents much better to reflect reality.

Just a hunch, but I think she's ahead nationally by about three points:

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-do...olina-wisconsin-colorado-battleground-states/

Most of them are well within the MoE, except maybe for Wisconsin and there is no way Hillary is up by three in Florida but up by 12 nationally. She would be up 10-15 points.

 

[Benjamin]

...does anybody really think that Hillary is wildly popular and has any chance of winning by twelve points? Twelve points???

God forbid!!!