The pie is falling! 1st Qtr statistical revisions show economy in freefall?

[church mouse guy]

In the words of Jimmy Carter, we are in a mayonnaise.

 

[Aaron]

You and your graph seem to forget, the only reason the markets are up is because of quantitative easement, which is coming to and end. You might want to see what the markets have done in the last 24 hours. That's proof the government is supporting the markets. There is no earthly reason, in the face of a revised 3% shrinkage of the economy, for the Dow to be up over 20 points, but it is.

The markets and the housing industry surges are frauds. The government is spending our money to make them happen. Your S&P index is a lie, just like the Dow and the NASDAQ.

Yep..............

 

[thisnumbersdisconnected]

...some economists are predicting 4% growth for Q2.

This administration has been predicting that kind of growth for five and a half years, and we've yet to to see anything over 1.7%, after other such "adjustments" as were made a couple days ago. There is no defending the economy. It's stagnant, and getting worse, not better. That is illustrated by over 15 million people literally dropping out of the job market since 2009. That is illustrated by the stagnant investment in business expansion -- which begs the question, if the markets are doing so well, why aren't business and industry seeing the benefit?

The answer is simple. The markets are doing nothing but moving paper. Paper profit, paper expansion, paper economy. No jobs, no new production, no consumption. Its all invisible wealth, and when the bubble in housing, stocks and long-term investment bursts ...

... all I can say is, you better have hip waders and an inflatable boat, cause its gonna get waist deep pronto.

Take William Devane's advice: Buy gold. Put it in a wall safe. Leave it there until needed. Which won't be long.

 

[InTheLight]

if the markets are doing so well, why aren't business and industry seeing the benefit?

Stock markets always lead any direction in the economy. That's why when it crashed in the fall of 2008 the effects weren't realized in people's lives for 6 months or longer afterwards. Also, unemployment always is the last thing to recover.

The answer is simple. The markets are doing nothing but moving paper. Paper profit, paper expansion, paper economy. No jobs, no new production, no consumption. Its all invisible wealth, and when the bubble in housing, stocks and long-term investment bursts ...

Nope. Corporate earnings are up. Consumer confidence is up. People are starting to buy houses and cars again. It's not fake. There is some hoarding of cash and some earnings are inflated because companies are squeezing efficiency out of workers and slashing costs, but earnings are what drive stock market advances and there are earnings.

Take William Devane's advice: Buy gold. Put it in a wall safe. Leave it there until needed. Which won't be long.

LOL! Dig up some mineral out of the ground then put it in a box and guard it. Yeah, that's a recipe for real wealth growth.

 

[thisnumbersdisconnected]

Stock markets always lead any direction in the economy. That's why when it crashed in the fall of 2008 the effects weren't realized in people's lives for 6 months or longer afterwards. Also, unemployment always is the last thing to recover.

You lifted this out of Jim Carney's old media notes, right?

That's the most absurd nonsense I've seen posted here lately.

One, for the last 20 years or more, the markets have not been a true economic indicator, not since the small private investor started monkeying around in the market with a brokerage buffer between him and his money.

Two, you obviously aren't in the home building business, because when the markets crashed, it was because of the panic among lenders because of the pending housing bubble burst crashed home sales overnight. The markets recovered in eighteen months. Nothing else -- corporate earnings, consumer confidence, housing, autos, etc. -- has, except on paper. I've already told you about your fake wealth, so I won't go into that again.

Three, unemployment hasn't recovered either. In fact, what you've totally ignored since I said it is the fact that 15 million people have disappeared from the job market since Obama took office. Employment recovers on the heels of consumer confidence, which recovers only when Mom and Pop America feel comfortable investing in something new and big, like a car or a house. That has never happened since the depression of 2009, regardless of the artificially "upbeat" housing market right now. More on that later in the post.

Nope. Corporate earnings are up.

Since when??? First quarter earnings, the only ones reported this year, were flat to down slightly, as has been the for the last six quarters. All the major corporations downsized expectations a week before releasing their quarterlies. When you make statements like that, it makes me wonder if you really know what you're talking about.

Consumer confidence is up.

Again, since when??? Because of this?

People are starting to buy houses and cars again. It's not fake.

Your insistence that it isn't fake is indicative of the fact you know it is. It isn't fake because people are really not buying houses -- believe me, even as a very small builder, I know they are buying. But why are they buying? Again, because of cheap money created by artificially low interest rates set by Fannie and Freddie and copied by the private lenders because, if the privates don't match the rates, the Feds will get all the business, since they have virtually no high-end limits on loan amounts anymore.

There is some hoarding of cash and some earnings are inflated because companies are squeezing efficiency out of workers and slashing costs, but earnings are what drive stock market advances and there are earnings.

Your statement proves the fallacy of the supposed corporate earnings and consumer confidence statements. You just admitted the markets are driven by a fake balloon in earnings, a balloon created not by production, but by paper shuffling.

Real consumer confidence is based on the availability of cheap products, made cheap by the ability of companies to produce surpluses, which are possible because of solid investment influx. We have no surpluses because the markets are not up due to investment in products. They are up because of investment in paper. The whole market system right now is nothing more than a futures exchange, with investors not caring whether Ford or Apple get money to invest that will be returned as dividends, but are chasing other investors and the paper they buy and sell. The alleged increase in corporate earnings is achieved on paper, just like all the other fake economic "stability" and "earnings" are achieved. There is no "there" there, ITL. And you are joining the mindless greenback chasers trying to catch imaginary fortunes that are going to disappear in a flash any day now.

My sympathies would be much more heartfelt and real if you weren't one of the major Kool-Aid drinkers I've spoken with on this issue.

LOL! Dig up some mineral out of the ground then put it in a box and guard it. Yeah, that's a recipe for real wealth growth.

Let me know, after all your paper wealth vanishes, how much gold is costing you when you so desperately need it to buy groceries and gas, 'K?

 

[poncho]

Along with Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity, leading conservative radio host Mark Levin reaches tens of millions of listeners weekly, and what he talked about recently on his nationally syndicated show has sent shivers down the spines of many of them.

A few years ago this was fringe theory, restricted only to the sphere of alternative (conspiracy) news.

Warnings of a massive economic collapse, government stockpiling of weaponry, and the idea that Americans could be broadly classified as terrorists and then detained indefinitely or killed often fell upon deaf ears.

Today, as more information ‘leaks’ into the mainstream, it is no longer just conspiracy theory. We now have some of the most influential journalists and commentators in the country alerting Americans to the possibility that everything the government has been preparing for the last several years may soon be realized.

Read More At: http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/mark-levin-government-is-simulating-the-collapse-of-our-financial-system-the-collapse-of-our-society-and-the-potential-for-widespread-violence_03082013

Stone Cold Proof That Government Economic Numbers Are Being Highly Manipulated

How in the world does the government expect us to trust the economic numbers that they give us anymore? For a long time, many have suspected that they were being manipulated, and as you will see below we now have stone cold proof that this is indeed the case. But first, let's talk about the revised GDP number for the first quarter of 2014 that was just released. Initially, they told us that the U.S. economy only shrank by 0.1 percent in Q1. Then that was revised down to a 1.0 percent contraction, and now we are being informed that the economy actually contracted by a whopping 2.9 percent during the first quarter. So what are we actually supposed to believe? Sometimes I almost get the feeling that government bureaucrats are just throwing darts at a dartboard in order to get these numbers. Of course that is not actually true, but how do we know that we can actually trust the numbers that they give to us?

Read More At: http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/stone-cold-proof-that-government-economic-numbers-are-being-highly-manipulated

 

[InTheLight]

One, for the last 20 years or more, the markets have not been a true economic indicator, not since the small private investor started monkeying around in the market with a brokerage buffer between him and his money.

The amount of money and therefore influence that the small investor has on the market compared to institutional investors is negligible.

Three, unemployment hasn't recovered either. In fact, what you've totally ignored since I said it is the fact that 15 million people have disappeared from the job market since Obama took office.

This has been hashed over and over again. Anywhere from 50%-90% of these 15 million people are retirees. 10,000 baby boomer A DAY are retiring, read: no longer looking for work.

Since when? First quarter earnings, the only ones reported this year, were flat to down slightly, as has been the for the last six quarters. All the major corporations downsized expectations a week before releasing their quarterlies. When you make statements like that, it makes me wonder if you really know what you're talking about.Again, since when???

S&P 500 profits beat analyst estimates by 4.1 percent last quarter and have avoided a contraction every quarter since 2009, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Analysts project they’ll climb 10 percent in 2014 and 2015. Corporate earnings reached a record $2.1 trillion for the quarter ending June 30, more than twice the $1 trillion at the end of 2008, according to data since 1947 from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...-after-re-election-as-bull-market-tested.html

Again, because of cheap money created by artificially low interest rates set by Fannie and Freddie and copied by the private lenders because, if the privates don't match the rates, the Feds will get all the business, since they have virtually no high-end limits on loan amounts anymore.

To borrow a phrase: That's the most absurd nonsense I've seen posted here lately.

<snip rest of diatribe>

 

[Magnetic Poles]

So many neocons and tea partiers delight in, any Fox News spin that halfway can be twisted to make the current POTUS appear in a negative light, despite any facts and rationality. Confirmation bias at its finest.

 

[thisnumbersdisconnected]

This has been hashed over and over again. Anywhere from 50%-90% of these 15 million people are retirees. 10,000 baby boomer A DAY are retiring, read: no longer looking for work.

And 20,000 millennials are attempting to get into the job market every day! The 15 million is a net loss!! If you're gonna quote statistics, get a clue!

S&P 500 profits beat analyst estimates by 4.1 percent last quarter and have avoided a contraction every quarter since 2009, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Bloomberg used to be reliable. Then people actually started listening to them. Since then? Just another shill for the NYSE.

Analysts project they’ll climb 10 percent in 2014 and 2015.

These are the same analysts who have been predicting 4% growth for six years, too. Let me know when they tire of being wrong.

Corporate earnings reached a record $2.1 trillion for the quarter ending June 30 ...

Please take note, you're using a report that's nine months old!!!!. See if we can stick to this year, please.

To borrow a phrase: That's the most absurd nonsense I've seen posted here lately

Yeah, why would you want to take the word of a home builder who knows the source of his customer's money??

You're a waste of time on this subject, ITL. Not to mention Bloomberg in a current year, Forbes and Businessweek!! Done here.

 

[Revmitchell]

This has been hashed over and over again. Anywhere from 50%-90% of these 15 million people are retirees. 10,000 baby boomer A DAY are retiring, read: no longer looking for work.

And you have ben wrong every time. I, in fact, have posted on more than one occasion reports that show the overwhelming majority unemployed are those who have just given up on finding a job. The retiree thing is being overy emphasized.Those who have given up loking for work are being completely ignored. The real unemployment rate is pver 12 %.

 

[InTheLight]

get a clue!

Since then?

Just another shill for the NYSE.

See if we can stick to this year, please.

Yeah, why would you want to take the word of a home builder who knows the source of his customer's money??

You're a waste of time on this subject, ITL.

Done here.

Thank you, it's a relief. Your snide comments are tiring.