atpollard
Well-Known Member
I just enjoyed an interesting Geopolitical analysis of the Iran war that concluded Iran had already lost the war (irrespective of the ultimate military outcome or the peace talks). The government of Iran had already fallen, it just did not know it yet (and it has nothing to do with US military actions).
Iran, like Venezuela before it, it ultimately a US attack on China. Not directly, but indirectly. As the world’s manufacturing powerhouse, China is desperately dependent on vast oil imports to support its economic machine. Oil currently flows into China from 3 places: Venezuela, Iran and Russia. The US shut off the flow of Venezuelan Oil via regime change. A regime change in Iran would cut off oil from Iran. That would force Russia and China into a closer alliance as China became more dependent on Russian oil. China and Russia have long standing historic natural tensions between them that would likely lead to internal conflicts in any close alliance. That is a multi-decade goal to weaken China.
How can regime change in Iran happen? The current war will never result in regime change except as an unimaginable unrealistic outcome of a people dominated by religious fanaticism. However, Iran can be viewed as a bank robber with a hostage (the straights of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb). As long as Iran THREATENED to stop the flow of oil through these choke points (but never actually did), they were appeased by their oil producing neighbors. Now that the Iran government has actually stopped the flow of oil, they have (in the bank robber analogy) “shot the hostage”. Once the hostage is dead, the man holding the gun has lost most of his power.
Following the last Hormuz embargo, Saudi Arabia constructed a 7 million barrel per day pipe line across the country to allow oil to bypass both the straights of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb and travel directly to the Suez Canal. With Iran attacking its neighbors and blockading all oil but their own, they have forced the other Oil Producing countries to pour their limitless money into expanding the pipeline to allow all oil to bypass the Iran controlled chokepoints. It may take 5 years, but Iran has forced itself into a position of irrelevance.
In addition, Iran has now become SUCH a threat to its neighbors that the unthinkable (Abraham Accords) are now the lesser evil. This allows Saudi Arabia to build a second oil pipeline to the Mediterranean Coast in Israel and bypass even the Suez Canal (avoiding a future choke point). This planned line will then be extended underwater to Greece and then into the EU. Iran has literally FORCED an Arab-Israel-EU Oil Pipeline and Economic/defense pact into existance.
The unrest in Iran before the war (that prompted the war in the first place) was caused by a DROUGHT and Water Shortage and Economic Collapse in Iran. Whatever the result of the Peace Talks, Iran will return to all those exact same pre-war conditions and social unrest. The difference now is that the importance of Iran to Russia and China for its ability to impact Oil Prices and harm the West will quickly diminish in the years to come. It is not a matter of “IF” the regime in Iran will fall … only “WHEN”. (and it has NOTHING to do with the US or military power). Iran chose a strategy that ultimately destroyed itself in the long term by “killing the hostage”.
Iran, like Venezuela before it, it ultimately a US attack on China. Not directly, but indirectly. As the world’s manufacturing powerhouse, China is desperately dependent on vast oil imports to support its economic machine. Oil currently flows into China from 3 places: Venezuela, Iran and Russia. The US shut off the flow of Venezuelan Oil via regime change. A regime change in Iran would cut off oil from Iran. That would force Russia and China into a closer alliance as China became more dependent on Russian oil. China and Russia have long standing historic natural tensions between them that would likely lead to internal conflicts in any close alliance. That is a multi-decade goal to weaken China.
How can regime change in Iran happen? The current war will never result in regime change except as an unimaginable unrealistic outcome of a people dominated by religious fanaticism. However, Iran can be viewed as a bank robber with a hostage (the straights of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb). As long as Iran THREATENED to stop the flow of oil through these choke points (but never actually did), they were appeased by their oil producing neighbors. Now that the Iran government has actually stopped the flow of oil, they have (in the bank robber analogy) “shot the hostage”. Once the hostage is dead, the man holding the gun has lost most of his power.
Following the last Hormuz embargo, Saudi Arabia constructed a 7 million barrel per day pipe line across the country to allow oil to bypass both the straights of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb and travel directly to the Suez Canal. With Iran attacking its neighbors and blockading all oil but their own, they have forced the other Oil Producing countries to pour their limitless money into expanding the pipeline to allow all oil to bypass the Iran controlled chokepoints. It may take 5 years, but Iran has forced itself into a position of irrelevance.
In addition, Iran has now become SUCH a threat to its neighbors that the unthinkable (Abraham Accords) are now the lesser evil. This allows Saudi Arabia to build a second oil pipeline to the Mediterranean Coast in Israel and bypass even the Suez Canal (avoiding a future choke point). This planned line will then be extended underwater to Greece and then into the EU. Iran has literally FORCED an Arab-Israel-EU Oil Pipeline and Economic/defense pact into existance.
The unrest in Iran before the war (that prompted the war in the first place) was caused by a DROUGHT and Water Shortage and Economic Collapse in Iran. Whatever the result of the Peace Talks, Iran will return to all those exact same pre-war conditions and social unrest. The difference now is that the importance of Iran to Russia and China for its ability to impact Oil Prices and harm the West will quickly diminish in the years to come. It is not a matter of “IF” the regime in Iran will fall … only “WHEN”. (and it has NOTHING to do with the US or military power). Iran chose a strategy that ultimately destroyed itself in the long term by “killing the hostage”.
