Trump winning the evangelical vote

[TCassidy]

New poll finds Cruz retains huge lead over Trump in Texas. 15 point lead. Cruz 35%, Trump 20%.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box...1-poll-cruz-leads-trump-by-15-points-in-texas

 

[Salty]

...If Trump continues to take about 30% of the delegates in the primaries with proportional delegate allocation, but he loses the "winner take all" states of Florida (Rubio's home state) and/or Ohio (Kasich's home state) he won't have enough delegates to lock up the nomination on the first ballot at the convention. ....

Latest Real Clear Political poll for the Fla primary gives Trump 40.0% of the vote (winner take all)
Latest Real Clear Political Poll for the Ohio primary give Trump 31% & Kasich 26 %
Latest Real Clear Political poll for the TX primary gives Cruz 32.3 & Trump 26.3

 

[777]

Yeah, but there's other polls out there that has Ted doing a lot worse in Texas. Might as well grab them:

http://www.wfaa.com/news/politics/elections/cruz-trump-tied-in-wfaa-texas-poll/55007805

^ tied supposedly, but don't forget the MoE factor

this one, Ted's up by eight:

http://www.newsmax.com/Headline/ted-cruz-increases-lead-donald-trump/2016/02/24/id/715986/

this has it about a virtual three-way tie:

http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_df82cdf7f0414137bbc532fd0b0caaa7.pdf

Makes your head spin, which ones are right and which ones are wrong? Ted has also pointed out that over 500k Texans have already voted in the GOP primary, probably a good sign for him.

I still think a brokered convention is unlikely, but I think I get what InTheLight is saying. I still doubt they would agree to waive the infamous Rule 40 but they could right before the convention, since it was a "standing rule" back when they changed it four years ago but now it's a "temporary rule". You know, they rigged the game in 2012 so they wouldn't have to deal with the Paulbots, but Donald Trump is no Ron Paul. He would go third party if the RNC convention nullified all those primary votes and he would probably lose but the Republican candidate certainly would.

 

[kyredneck]

If Trump continues to take about 30% of the delegates in the primaries with proportional delegate allocation, but he loses the "winner take all" states of Florida (Rubio's home state) and/or Ohio (Kasich's home state)

Poll: Trump crushes Rubio in Florida

"Marco Rubio is getting clobbered by Donald Trump in home state of Florida, where a Quinnipiac University poll shows the frontrunner is polling at an all-time high in the Republican race for president.

Trump's 44-28 percent lead over Rubio reflects the momentum of the New York billionaire’s string of first-place finishes in the last three early state races, and it blunts the Florida senator's argument that he's the only candidate who can defeat the frontrunner in a one-on-one race.

Also, the results give more ammunition to Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Ohio Gov. John Kasich — running a distant third and fourth in the Florida survey — to say that Rubio should leave the race because they're doing better in polls of their home states than Rubio is in his.

"It’s hard to see how Senator Rubio can win his party’s nomination without winning his home state," said Peter A. Brown, director of the Quinnipiac poll.

Poll: Donald Trump tops John Kasich in Ohio

"Despite his immense popularity in Ohio, Gov. John Kasich trails Donald Trump there, a new poll finds.

The Quinnipiac University survey released Tuesday shows GOP presidential front-runner Trump beating Kasich 31% to 26% in Ohio, which will holds its primary on March 15 in a winner-take-all contest. ...."

 

[InTheLight]

kyredneck, it's a bit more complicated than simply looking at the polls. Trump has peaked. He's not gaining any new supporters. Meanwhile Rubio is leading all candidates in picking up undecideds in the days/hours leading to actual voting.

Tonight's debate is going to be ewe-idge. I predict that Cruz and Rubio will attack Trump and fluster him. All one needs to ask Trump is "How?" How you going to make America great again? Saying you will "get the best experts, you know we will, it's what I do, you know that," is not going to cut it anymore. I see Trump stumbling badly tonight.

Super Tuesday is coming up. I'm sticking with my predictions that Trump might win 3 or 4 of these states, mostly the traditionally blue states. It will be the beginning of the end of the Trump campaign.

 

[InTheLight]

Cruz did poorly among evangelicals in South Carolina and Nevada. Now there are reports that many of his backers are ready to jump ship to Rubio's campaign if Cruz does poorly on Super Tuesday.
-----------

A group of conservative activist leaders that voted late last year to endorse Ted Cruz over Marco Rubio held a conference call Tuesday to re-evaluate their positions based on new developments in the Republican presidential race, according to multiple sources familiar with the situation. The upshot: If Cruz is not successful on Super Tuesday — by carrying his native Texas at the least — some of his prominent backers are prepared to defect to Rubio.

The call was held by members of The GROUP, a secretive cabal of prominent conservatives led by the Family Research Council’s Tony Perkins and the Senate Conservatives Fund’s Ken Cuccinelli. The outfit has endeavored since late 2014 to coalesce “the movement” of grassroots activists nationwide behind a single GOP candidate, hoping to prevent a splintering of the conservative vote that would allow a more moderate Republican to clinch the nomination.

Rubio’s backers inside The GROUP, who by rule have remained publicly silent due to Cruz winning a supermajority of their fellow members, have not yet pushed for release from their vow of non-support. But they are laying the groundwork for a mass defection to Rubio should Cruz collapse on Super Tuesday. Particular attention is being paid to Texas, Cruz’s make-or-break home state, where an Emerson poll Wednesday showed him ahead — but Trump and Rubio within the margin of error. If Cruz doesn’t at least deliver Texas on Tuesday, sources involved with the discussions say, there is a chance that some high-profile conservatives will begin jumping ship to Rubio and pressuring Cruz to exit the race.

Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/431857/conservative-leaders-hedge-support-cruz

 

[kyredneck]

I see Trump stumbling badly tonight.

Lol! You and a multitude of others have been saying that for six months now.

He's actually 'stumbled' many times but yet his support keeps growing.

 

[InTheLight]

Lol! You and a multitude of others have been saying that for six months now.

He's actually 'stumbled' many times but yet his support keeps growing.

His support does not keep growing. He's stagnated. Again, his vote totals do not live up to his poll numbers. They are consistently lower than the polls.

Also, Rubio and Cruz have never really attacked Trump. I expect them to do that tonight. I figure Cruz will shred Donald Trump.

 

[kyredneck]

Also, Rubio and Cruz have never really attacked Trump. I expect them to do that tonight. I figure Cruz will shred Donald Trump.

I intend to watch it; I still think the possibility of Rubio or Kasich becoming 'running mate' hinders either of them from outright attacking Trump, at this time. We'll see.

 

[carpro]

Cruz did poorly among evangelicals in South Carolina and Nevada. Now there are reports that many of his backers are ready to jump ship to Rubio's campaign if Cruz does poorly on Super Tuesday.
-----------

A lot of democrats are voting for Trump in the republican primary in Texas. Crossover voting is rampant. We'll see how that turns out.

 

[InTheLight]

I intend to watch it; I still think the possibility of Rubio or Kasich becoming 'running mate' hinders either of them from outright attacking Trump, at this time. We'll see.

No way will Trump pick any of the guys running against him, except possibly Ben Carson. Trump has said many times that the VP pick has to be someone so terrible that no one would want to assassinate the president. I give you Dan Quayle and Joe Biden as examples.

 

[InTheLight]

A lot of democrats are voting for Trump in the republican primary in Texas. Crossover voting is rampant. We'll see how that turns out.

Which means the Dems view Trump as the easiest Republican to defeat in November and/or they don't want Cruz to win Texas.

 

[Revmitchell]

The Dems are scared to death of Trump.

 

[Revmitchell]

Donald Trump is leading Florida Sen. Marco Rubio in the Sunshine State by double digits, according to a poll released Thursday. The Quinnipiac University poll has Trump in the lead with 44 percent, Rubio following behind with 28 percent, and Sen. Ted Cruz in third with 12 percent. In fourth is Gov. John Kasich with 12 percent, and Carson is in last with 4 percent.





Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2016/02/25/trump-leads-rubio-in-florida-by-double-digits/#ixzz41DMjWX5i

 

[InTheLight]

Donald Trump is leading Florida Sen. Marco Rubio in the Sunshine State by double digits, according to a poll released Thursday. The Quinnipiac University poll has Trump in the lead with 44 percent, Rubio following behind with 28 percent, and Sen. Ted Cruz in third with 12 percent. In fourth is Gov. John Kasich with 12 percent, and Carson is in last with 4 percent.

Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2016/02/25/trump-leads-rubio-in-florida-by-double-digits/#ixzz41DMjWX5i

Yep, a month ago it was Trump 41%, Rubio 18%

The Florida vote is in 19 days. A lot can change in that time.

 

[carpro]

Which means the Dems view Trump as the easiest Republican to defeat in November and/or they don't want Cruz to win Texas.

Both.

 

[Salty]

All one needs to ask Trump is "How?" How you going to make America great again? Saying you will "get the best experts, you know we will, it's what I do, you know that," is not going to cut it anymore. I see Trump stumbling badly tonight.

Super Tuesday is coming up. I'm sticking with my predictions that Trump might win 3 or 4 of these states, mostly the traditionally blue states. It will be the beginning of the end of the Trump campaign.

1) and I trust that Rubio and Cruz will also answer their questions with a "This is how I am going to...."

2) I think Trump will win at least half of the States/Commonwealths on Super Tuesday.
Cruz will probably win Texas - but less than 10% margin of victory over Trump- and since Tx is a proportional State - Trump will pick up several delegates.


Tonight should be the first interesting Debate - since there will only be 5 on stage.