No crash, such a notion is all hype. But I have some news for ya, we cant pay our debt now. My point is nothing will be any different.
I'm not so sure 'nothing' will happen. If social security payments are not made, and military payroll does not go out, we are looking at about 8-10% of GDP being removed from the economy. Millions of people would not have money to spend.
If anyone reading this thinks that is 'nothing', you are sadly mistaken. Of course, this presumes that social security payments would be missed. Even if they continue, and the government prioritizes payments using existing revenues, there will be money removed from the system and that will have a huge effect on the economy .
Also, if you think 'nothing' will happen, you better adjust your argument against raising taxes on the wealthy. Because if you think that raising taxes on the top 2% of earners will cause the economy to falter because the rich won't be spending and investing that additional slice of income if the top rate went up from 35% to 39.6%, you've got to believe that removing the entire entitlement incomes from millions of people SIMULTANEOUSLY would have a devastating effect on the economy.
Just think about it--most retired people would immediately switch to survival mode, their spending on things besides food and household utilities would virtually cease.
Also, there would be no safe haven for your investments. Suppose you are ahead of the game and you want to get out of the stock market, you want to switch your 401k elections out of the equity markets and into something safe, where are you going to put your money? The traditional safe haven is U.S. Treasuries, but if the U.S. defaults how safe are those U.S. Treasuries?
The more I look at this issue, the worse it looks. Don't you think foreign governments are wondering about alternative places to invest besides U.S. Treasuries?