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We aren't disagreeing. He says wages will stagnate becuase businesses wouldn't increase them and that is correct. I was saying that to fill the void and entice Americans the wages would have to increase to make the jobs more attractive. I am fully aware that a business owner is not going to do this, I was talking more about trying to sell Americans on jobs they consider beneath them. ITL and I are on the same page here.

Nice try though.

 

If there is no shortage of workers, employers would see no need for wage increases.

You simply said there would be across the board wage decreases due to a shortage of workers. That is an incorrect statement and most economists disagree with you.

Until the so called labor shortage is alleviated by people being forced to work for benefits and guest workers returning, there would be upward pressure on wages.

But you're changing the setting. Now you say, since those workers have been replaced, there would be no wage increases. Are you now admitting that wages would have to increase until those workers are replaced. You can't have it both ways.

 

If you're going to be ITL's cheerleader, you need to pay attention. That's not what he said at all and not what i responded to. It's also not what you just said.

So let's see, you've changed what ITL said and now you deny you said what you said. And you do it all in one sentence.

Man, you are a piece of work.

 

Here's one of the biggest things I hate about conversations like this...apparently, if you don't believe we should allow people to break the law by illegally crossing international borders, and then we should use the police power of the federal government to take money from people who are legal, law-abiding citizens and give it to the illegally, law-breaking citizens, then you just don't care.

 

Let's recap shall we.

You orginially said.

"Case in point...if there truly is a shortage of labor, wages will increase, not decrease. That's just the way it works."

Then I said,

"Yes, wages will have to increase and small businesses will have to shut down."

ITL said,

Let's see....millions of workers disappear. With all these consumers absent there will be an abundance of goods. Lower demand relative to high supply means prices will drop. Americans are not going to take on these landscaping jobs, cleaning jobs, roofing jobs, farm labor jobs, entry levels jobs. Wages will stagnate because people are not going to leave their current jobs to pick produce and clean hotel rooms. There's no reason for employers to give out wage increases. Unless you think Holiday Inn is going to start paying people $25 an hour to vacuum carpet.

Notice how we both just said that businesses would not pay a higher wage due to the vacuum in the labor force.

 

That's what I said, all right.

I wonder why I said that. Just pulled it out of the blue, I guess. SMH

I wonder if it could be because ITL said:

And you later said to me:

Looks more like you agree with me. Until you didn't.

Now let's have your next insult.

 

Again,

Let me say this in the most simple way possible. Wage increases would be the only way to fill the work force void BUT THIS IS NOT HAPPENING BECAUSE BUSINESSES ARE SHUTTING DOWN INSTEAD. There will be no true wage increase because no business will pay increased wages to do simple tasks. They choose to fold instead. I don't know how else to explain it to you.

You are essentially trying to say that the labor void is somehow a win/win scenario for businesses and the unemployed alike. That is the crux of the disagreement here.

 

There is no "again" until you make your stance clear.

ITL says the shortage of workers caused by sending the illegals home would cause a decrease in wages. You say wages would increase in such an event.

Yet you say you are in agreement with ITL.

Looks to me like you are in agreement with me. Make up your mind.

Which is it?

 

The iron law of wages says that wages will be depressed to a subsistence level. They are already. Here in this area, jobs in warehouses are very low-paying and retail stores also pay low. We have a great deal of unemployment nevertheless.

The US Chamber of Commerce is leading the drive for more cheap labor. They have bribed the GOP with campaign contributions and bribed the Dems with the prospect of a one-party country with countless millions of easy votes from Catholics who favor Papa Government.

 

You bolded the part that supports your position while ignoring my point about businesses closing. The wages are not increasing because businesses can't find cheaper labor. Wages cannot go up to entice unemployed Americans when the business simply shuts it's doors.

Church Mouse Guy brought up the good point about wages already being low in his area with the unemployment rate still high. If you are a business owner and you lose your cheap labor force you have two choices. Shut it down or try to recruit a labor force with either a substantial benefit package or a higher wage rate. I think we see what is happening on a large scale.

 

You have no point until you clarify your position on wages.

Do you agree with ITL or not? You said you did. But there is this:

Which is it? Do you agree or not?

If you do, one of you has changed his position.

You or ITL? Of course I know the answer. I just want to see if you can , for once, be honest about something.

 

Actually, around here most folks won't hire a teenage boy off the street to cut their grass because they are afraid of liability issues in our extremely litigious society. :BangHead:

 

He is talking Macroeconomics after the initial shock of losing a labor force of that size in such a small amount of time and AFTER the small businesses shut down. He is talking after effects and what would happen to wages after all of this happens. I was talking about SMALL BUSINESSES and what they would have to do to survive. I'm not even saying wages are going up in small businesses, what is happening in reality is that owners are not going this route and are shutting down. There is a difference but you are missing the main point which is that shocking the market like that would be harmful to the economy as a whole.

 

Thank you for the kind words on a cold day! The iron law of wages says that wages will be pressed to the floor. That is what is happening to the glee of the US Chamber of Commerce.

 

It's been beautiful around Virginia Beach during the afternoons. The nights get a little chilly though. What is the temp down too in your neck of the woods?

 

I have no idea why you are talking about the "iron law of wages" in relation to 10 million people leaving the workforce. The iron law of wages basically says that an employer will pay a worker the bare minimum in order to keep them employed. The iron law would apply to the illegal immigrants, not to mainstream Americans.

I might as well lay out my reasoning for why I think wages would stagnate and/or go down if 10M people were to leave the economy.

The exodus of this many consumers would mean there would be an incredible excess amount of goods available for purchase. Higher supply, lowered demand. Prices on goods would fall. This is deflation.

Not only would prices fall but people would put off buying stuff expecting prices to continue to fall. They've already dropped 20%, lets say, why not wait until they drop to 30%? People would slow their spending.

This is the trap of deflation. In this sort of an economic condition, where people are holding off buying things one of the last things that would happen is wage increases. If products aren't selling, meaning companies aren't making good profit margins and earnings are depressed, why in the world would they increase wages? Where would they get the money to do that if their products aren't selling and earnings are down? It's also likely that people with manufacturing jobs and other sectors are having reduced work hours. Wages are not going to go up in this environment.

Now, there would certainly be a shortage of minimum wage workers. Yes, business owners in these sectors would have to increase wages to lure people to take these jobs. But these are crappy jobs. No one is going to leave their job as a dental assistant to flip burgers (for example). Increasing wages in these entry level jobs would increase prices on the products produced by these jobs. If most things in the economy were getting cheaper but certain fruits and vegetables were getting more expensive, or the price of re-roofing your house was going up, or fast food was going up, or the cost of a hotel room was increasing, for example, consumers would simply not buy as much fruit, wouldn't get their roof redone, wouldn't go to fast food joints, and would curtail traveling.

 

It is a ridiculous notion that should illegals leave it would hurt the economy. There are millions of people wanting to get into the country legally every year. Send illegals home and replace them with those who will come in legally. This is not rocket science.

 

But can this occur in a manner expedient enough to offset? We have no such system in place to handle the pure volume of deporting so many people or processing those legally.