• Welcome to Baptist Board, a friendly forum to discuss the Baptist Faith in a friendly surrounding.

    Your voice is missing! You will need to register to get access to all the features that our community has to offer.

    We hope to see you as a part of our community soon and God Bless!

Illegal stats

Use of Time

Well-Known Member
Site Supporter
I have no idea why you are talking about the "iron law of wages" in relation to 10 million people leaving the workforce. The iron law of wages basically says that an employer will pay a worker the bare minimum in order to keep them employed. The iron law would apply to the illegal immigrants, not to mainstream Americans.

I might as well lay out my reasoning for why I think wages would stagnate and/or go down if 10M people were to leave the economy.

The exodus of this many consumers would mean there would be an incredible excess amount of goods available for purchase. Higher supply, lowered demand. Prices on goods would fall. This is deflation.

Not only would prices fall but people would put off buying stuff expecting prices to continue to fall. They've already dropped 20%, lets say, why not wait until they drop to 30%? People would slow their spending.

This is the trap of deflation. In this sort of an economic condition, where people are holding off buying things one of the last things that would happen is wage increases. If products aren't selling, meaning companies aren't making good profit margins and earnings are depressed, why in the world would they increase wages? Where would they get the money to do that if their products aren't selling and earnings are down? It's also likely that people with manufacturing jobs and other sectors are having reduced work hours. Wages are not going to go up in this environment.

Now, there would certainly be a shortage of minimum wage workers. Yes, business owners in these sectors would have to increase wages to lure people to take these jobs. But these are crappy jobs. No one is going to leave their job as a dental assistant to flip burgers (for example). Increasing wages in these entry level jobs would increase prices on the products produced by these jobs. If most things in the economy were getting cheaper but certain fruits and vegetables were getting more expensive, or the price of re-roofing your house was going up, or fast food was going up, or the cost of a hotel room was increasing, for example, consumers would simply not buy as much fruit, wouldn't get their roof redone, wouldn't go to fast food joints, and would curtail traveling.

What are your thoughts on what would happen to service based business?
 
Last edited by a moderator:

InTheLight

Well-Known Member
Site Supporter
It is a ridiculous notion that should illegals leave it would hurt the economy. There are millions of people wanting to get into the country legally every year. Send illegals home and replace them with those who will come in legally. This is not rocket science.

Even if the legal process could be expedited, the ones that want to get in here legally are not the type of people that will take a job at McDonald's or climb up on a roof to shingle a house..
 

Jedi Knight

Well-Known Member
Site Supporter
2112295589_i_might_be_illegal_answer_6_xlarge.jpeg

He thinks it says WHERE IS MY FREE HEALTHCARE,DRIVERS LICENCE,TAX FREE JOB?
 
Last edited by a moderator:

carpro

Well-Known Member
Site Supporter
He is talking Macroeconomics after the initial shock of losing a labor force of that size in such a small amount of time and AFTER the small businesses shut down. He is talking after effects and what would happen to wages after all of this happens. I was talking about SMALL BUSINESSES and what they would have to do to survive. I'm not even saying wages are going up in small businesses, what is happening in reality is that owners are not going this route and are shutting down. There is a difference but you are missing the main point which is that shocking the market like that would be harmful to the economy as a whole.

I am missing nothing. The economy would recover. It's kinda fun to watch you scramble around and then attempt to explain ITL's post to make you look a little less ridiculous.

He really should explain his own, but I believe he would have if he needed to. Be interesting to see if he bails you out. Based on the context of the conversation I was having with ITL, you are making no sense.

You really should quit while the hole you've dug yourself is too small to bury you and throw away the shovel.

Consider this your opportunity. Last words are killing you.
 

carpro

Well-Known Member
Site Supporter
I have no idea why you are talking about the "iron law of wages" in relation to 10 million people leaving the workforce.

This time you're the one exaggerating.

There aren't 10,000,000 illegals in the work force. :thumbs:

But I get your point anyway.
 

carpro

Well-Known Member
Site Supporter
Now, there would certainly be a shortage of minimum wage workers. Yes, business owners in these sectors would have to increase wages to lure people to take these jobs.

I see you've changed your tune.

We are now in agreement on what would happen to wages.
 

Use of Time

Well-Known Member
Site Supporter
I am missing nothing. The economy would recover. It's kinda fun to watch you scramble around and then attempt to explain ITL's post to make you look a little less ridiculous.

He really should explain his own, but I believe he would have if he needed to. Be interesting to see if he bails you out. Based on the context of the conversation I was having with ITL, you are making no sense.

You really should quit while the hole you've dug yourself is too small to bury you and throw away the shovel.

Consider this your opportunity. Last words are killing you.

Whatever man. I said the term "Small Business" in the first post that started this whole sleigh ride. It's there for everyone to see. I know this because I work with them every day in the contracting field.

ITL actually did just explain his post a little while ago.

The last word thing is exactly what you are trying to do. You are more concerned with getting the better of me or trapping me then moving the conversation forward.
 

carpro

Well-Known Member
Site Supporter
It is a ridiculous notion that should illegals leave it would hurt the economy. There are millions of people wanting to get into the country legally every year. Send illegals home and replace them with those who will come in legally. This is not rocket science.

Neither would happen overnight, but that's the effect the doomsayers want everyone to assume.. You're talking moving up to 22,000,000 people.

It would take time. Months, perhaps years. With such a gradual process, the hit on the economy would be considerably less than the doomsayers think. Maybe none at all.
 

carpro

Well-Known Member
Site Supporter
Whatever man. I said the term "Small Business" in the first post that started this whole sleigh ride. It's there for everyone to see. I know this because I work with them every day in the contracting field.

ITL actually did just explain his post a little while ago.

The last word thing is exactly what you are trying to do. You are more concerned with getting the better of me or trapping me then moving the conversation forward.

Somebody take the shovel away from this guy! :BangHead:

There's no trap. You shot your mouth off without reading the thread and are paying the price. That's the way it goes.

Now is the time for your "whatever".
 

InTheLight

Well-Known Member
Site Supporter
What are your thoughts on what would happen to service based business?

If there are a fair number of illegals working in the service industry and they were displaced the search would be on to replace them. Employers would need to increase the wages of these jobs, but again, I don't think there are people lining up to take them, certainly not people who would leave their current job to take them, even if the money were better.

What sorts of service industries? Taxi drivers, maids, landscaping, hospitality (bar, restaurant, hotels), personal grooming, child care, construction (carpeting, roofing), car washes.

I suppose prices for these services would rise a little bit, but if they went too high consumers would use their discretion and not purchase them. I would guess a lot of these businesses would fail. They wouldn't be able to attract workers or if they did, they would need to raise prices to cover the workers wages and people would forego using the service.

What service industries do illegals spend on? I'm drawing a blank. Auto repair, I suppose. Child care. Personal grooming.
 

InTheLight

Well-Known Member
Site Supporter
I see you've changed your tune.

We are now in agreement on what would happen to wages.

You cherry picked a sentence or two out of a lengthy post about why wages would stagnate or go down. I haven't changed my tune.

Wages would rise in these particular industries (which are at rock bottom already, so the effect would be negligible), but in the rest of the employment world wages would stagnate or decline.
 

Use of Time

Well-Known Member
Site Supporter
If there are a fair number of illegals working in the service industry and they were displaced the search would be on to replace them. Employers would need to increase the wages of these jobs, but again, I don't think there are people lining up to take them, certainly not people who would leave their current job to take them, even if the money were better.

What sorts of service industries? Taxi drivers, maids, landscaping, hospitality (bar, restaurant, hotels), personal grooming, child care, construction (carpeting, roofing), car washes.

I suppose prices for these services would rise a little bit, but if they went too high consumers would use their discretion and not purchase them. I would guess a lot of these businesses would fail. They wouldn't be able to attract workers or if they did, they would need to raise prices to cover the workers wages and people would forego using the service.

What service industries do illegals spend on? I'm drawing a blank. Auto repair, I suppose. Child care. Personal grooming.

Yeah I'm thinking more of illegals that perform these services than those that procure them. I suppose your examples of the service based jobs you listed is probably in line with the kind of work they are doing. My whole point earlier was the sudden absence of these workers would create a labor vacuum that their employees couldn't fill. I agree that a lot of Americans probably wouldn't rush to fill this void leaving the businesses with a tough decision. CMG even mentioned unemployment remains high where he is because in some cases even unemployment is better than to those people than performing menial labor.

As far as the services illegals spend on, I got nothing. I don't recall any study on that particular question but I would be interested in seeing those results. I'm guessing they couldn't afford many services other than child care as that one is a killer these days.
 

carpro

Well-Known Member
Site Supporter
You cherry picked a sentence or two out of a lengthy post about why wages would stagnate or go down. I haven't changed my tune.

Wages would rise in these particular industries (which are at rock bottom already, so the effect would be negligible), but in the rest of the employment world wages would stagnate or decline.

I took issue with one over the top and obviously false statement. Not that unusual for either of us. You should have admitted way before now that you misspoke. It's on you that you didn't.
 

InTheLight

Well-Known Member
Site Supporter
This time you're the one exaggerating.

There aren't 10,000,000 illegals in the work force. :thumbs:

But I get your point anyway.

Yeah, probably not 10M, but it's got to be close. How many total illegal immigrants do you think there are?

Googling around I get anywhere from 10M to 20M. Of course not all adults, but I'd guess 2/3's of whatever number is chosen are adults and are likely in the workforce. Why else would they be here? Most of them work here and send money home. So if there are 11M in the country there would be 7.4M working.

The head of this border patrol group says there are 20M illegals in the U.S. If so, there could easily be 10M workers.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/sep/9/nearly-20m-illegal-immigrants-us-ex-border-patrol/
 

InTheLight

Well-Known Member
Site Supporter
As far as the services illegals spend on, I got nothing. I don't recall any study on that particular question but I would be interested in seeing those results. I'm guessing they couldn't afford many services other than child care as that one is a killer these days.

I suppose they spend on money transfer services. Ha.

I would guess they trade child care services within their community as much as possible. "You watch my kid while I work, I'll watch yours when you work" sort of thing. Maybe they do the same thing with auto repair, grooming, yard work, etc. They are underground workers, rather than go to a legit business and possibly risk discovery, maybe they use the barter system.
 

carpro

Well-Known Member
Site Supporter
I suppose they spend on money transfer services. Ha.

I would guess they trade child care services within their community as much as possible. "You watch my kid while I work, I'll watch yours when you work" sort of thing. Maybe they do the same thing with auto repair, grooming, yard work, etc. They are underground workers, rather than go to a legit business and possibly risk discovery, maybe they use the barter system.

There is a lot of home sharing among families. In such an environment, they naturally share child care duties as well. They don't mind going to a legit (have a building and a sign) business to get their cars repaired. A lot of those business owners are illegal as well and pay no federal income taxes. They're not going to report anyone at all for anything.
 

Salty

20,000 Posts Club
Administrator
Neither would happen overnight, but that's the effect the doomsayers want everyone to assume.. You're talking moving up to 22,000,000 people.

It would take time. Months, perhaps years. With such a gradual process, the hit on the economy would be considerably less than the doomsayers think. Maybe none at all.

For many who would have to leave -they would only be taking personal effects (wonder if Mexican authorities would charge custom taxes)

For what's its worth - back in 1966 President DeGaulle ordered all foreing troops out of France. He gave them only one year to evucate. Naturally, the US accomplished the mission of moving, troops, dependents, personal and military equipment out of France. I could not find the exact number of troops moved, but according to this link, there were at least 11 MAJOR US Air Force Bases. The Army unit I was in (HQ, MATCOM-then known as S&MA) actually operated out of trains until settling in their new home in Zweibruecken (from our Hill - we could actually see France - just a few klicks away)
A guessmation 50,000 troops + dependents were required to be moved. Material and supplies from just Army Depots (at least 8) had to be moved, not to mention all other equipment from other Army and AF bases.
 

church mouse guy

Well-Known Member
Site Supporter
It is a ridiculous notion that should illegals leave it would hurt the economy. There are millions of people wanting to get into the country legally every year. Send illegals home and replace them with those who will come in legally. This is not rocket science.

Yes, and it has already been established that illegals are overloading the public service sectors such as schools and hospitals, not to mention police and jails. With Ebola floating around and terrorism on the march, it is necessary to close the borders for a few decades.

The President of Mexico, a demagogue, complains that we discriminate against Mexicans but Mexico is very inhospitable to Americans. An example is the Marine in jail for 6 months. We need to send all Mexican felons home to Mexico and jam up Mexican prisons with their own people. I would like to ask why Catholic countries are so dysfunctional?
 
Top