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Featured one more day: Trump +5 LAT, +2 IBD

Discussion in 'Political Debate & Discussion' started by Calminian, Nov 7, 2016.

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  1. Calminian

    Calminian Well-Known Member
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    #1 Calminian, Nov 7, 2016
    Last edited: Nov 7, 2016
  2. InTheLight

    InTheLight Well-Known Member
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    Can't wait for Wednesday, er, won't take that long. Can't wait til Tuesday night at about 9:35 eastern time.
     
    #2 InTheLight, Nov 7, 2016
  3. Calminian

    Calminian Well-Known Member
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    Late surge is showing Trump. Early voting turnout for dems down, for republicans up.

    You might be in the for the shock of your life. Did you know Reagan was supposed to lose to Carter by 9 points?
     
    #3 Calminian, Nov 7, 2016
  4. InTheLight

    InTheLight Well-Known Member
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    The capacity for self-delusion is limitless.

    No, Carter never led Reagan by 9 points, and if he did it would have been before the conventions (June, for example) or thereabouts. Certainly not in October or November of 1980.
     
    #4 InTheLight, Nov 7, 2016
  5. Calminian

    Calminian Well-Known Member
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    Nope, it was one week before the election on the final poll. The media was shocked!
     
    #5 Calminian, Nov 7, 2016
  6. Benjamin

    Benjamin Well-Known Member
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    Baloney! Reports on the news right before the election that Reagan was to going lose big is what drove me to vote for my first time. This is very likely to be a repeat type of situation...


    Whatever...Ducky. ;)
     
    #6 Benjamin, Nov 7, 2016
  7. Calminian

    Calminian Well-Known Member
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    I'm talking polls, not reports. You have reports from all kinds of sources that Trump could win big. I think he's going to win big. Look at this crowds.

    I'm listening to Limbaugh, and he quoted a 9pt. poll just 1 week out. He said it was a final poll. He's pretty accurate.

    And I found this:

    [​IMG]
     
    #7 Calminian, Nov 7, 2016
  8. Benjamin

    Benjamin Well-Known Member
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    It was a long time ago but I assume all those reports were based on the polls.

    I'd say the "reports from all kinds of sources" you refer to are based on the evidence of enthusiasm which is similar to the time of Reagan, but as far as the polls its reported to be pretty even and generally an uphill battle for Trump on the electorate. Yes, I think its likely the pollsters may be in for repeat shock as in the days of Reagan. I'll say this, if its close and Trump were to lose by a small margin by states where illegal alien voter fraud is expected I know I will not be willing to accept the results and I will predict a BIG problem that will dwarf the ugliness leading up to this election!
     
    #8 Benjamin, Nov 7, 2016
  9. InTheLight

    InTheLight Well-Known Member
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    Making stuff up in your head again, I see. Must be lovely in there...
     
    #9 InTheLight, Nov 7, 2016
  10. Calminian

    Calminian Well-Known Member
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    On that we agree. Which is why I'm glad Trump didn't take the bait from Chris Wallace.
     
    #10 Calminian, Nov 7, 2016
  11. InTheLight

    InTheLight Well-Known Member
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    Yeah that sure looks like a NINE POINT LEAD IN THE POLLS!!

    That 45% to 39% poll was taken before the Reagan-Carter debate (shown in your photo)
     
    #11 InTheLight, Nov 7, 2016
  12. Calminian

    Calminian Well-Known Member
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    I didn't say that was the final poll. Rush Limbaugh just reported that Carter held a 9 point lead in the final poll. I'm I'm showing you mid October polls which could be 2-3 weeks out.

    I've heard this from many sources. Reagan was down by a lot in many polls at the end just like Trump is. And ironically, Trump is winning the most accurate poll from the last presidential election. The momentum toward him in YUGE!
     
    #12 Calminian, Nov 7, 2016
  13. Calminian

    Calminian Well-Known Member
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    #13 Calminian, Nov 7, 2016
  14. InTheLight

    InTheLight Well-Known Member
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    Rush Limbaugh is wrong. (I know that's hard to believe.)

    Here are the Gallup polls from 1980

    1980-Polls.jpg



    I was a keen observer of that election. I lived through it. Reagan was not "down by a lot in many polls at the end".
     
    #14 InTheLight, Nov 7, 2016
  15. InTheLight

    InTheLight Well-Known Member
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    Then who wrote this? Your secret identity?

     
    #15 InTheLight, Nov 7, 2016
  16. Calminian

    Calminian Well-Known Member
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    Here is some final polling I found from Wikipedia on the 1980 election.

    Reagan......Carter
    40%...........44%
    39%...........45%
    47%...........44%

    Notice the sudden correction of polls at the last minute. This is all October polling. Cater was winning most of the time. Kind of reminds me of modern polls.
    Actual result Reagan 51% Carter 41% Reagan wins by 10 pt. blowout.

    I believe Cadell has said this election looks a lot like Reagan/Carter.

    And I think I know why Limbaugh got that 9 point margin. He may have confused Anderson's percentage immediacy following Carter's lead and thought it was the margin.
     
    #16 Calminian, Nov 7, 2016
  17. Zaac

    Zaac Well-Known Member

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    Hilarious. He's got a problem with suppressing the "Christian" vote but is all for the GOP shenanigans to suppress the Black and Latino vote.:rolleyes:
     
    #17 Zaac, Nov 7, 2016
  18. Zaac

    Zaac Well-Known Member

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    Man please. You do recall that whole Iran Hostage thing that Reagan interfered with , don'tcha?
     
    #18 Zaac, Nov 7, 2016
  19. Calminian

    Calminian Well-Known Member
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    Zaac your hero Hillary may lose after all. You're going to be heartbroken. :rolleyes:
     
    #19 Calminian, Nov 7, 2016
  20. Calminian

    Calminian Well-Known Member
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    yeah it kind of reminds me of Hillary getting investigated for selling the State Dept. and mishandling classified information.
     
    #20 Calminian, Nov 7, 2016
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