Covid-19 Patterns (No Need to Quarantine)

[JonC]

98%r recovery all of this shutdown is useless

Where do we get 98% recovery?

In the US about 50,000 have recovered and about 29,000 have died. Worldwide worldwide about 526,000 have recovered with about 137,000 deaths. How does this equate to a 98% recovery rate>

(Not debating, just asking to show the math because I can't see how it is determined).

 

[KenH]

shutdown is useless

Probably not useless in metropolitan areas such as NYC, Detroit, Chicago, etc. Other than any still existing hot spots it’s time to reopen come May 1. No reason that restaurants couldn’t reopen at half capacity, barber shops with face coverings, small businesses, etc.

 

[KenH]

Where do we get 98% recovery?

“Over the last two weeks, German virologists tested nearly 80 percent of the population of Gangelt for antibodies that indicate whether they'd been infected by the coronavirus. Around 15 percent had been infected, allowing them to calculate a COVID-19 infection fatality rate of about 0.37 percent. The researchers also concluded that people who recover from the infection are immune to reinfection, at least for a while.

For comparison, the U.S. infection fatality rates for the 1957–58 flu epidemic was around 0.27 percent; for the 1918 Spanish flu epidemic, it was about 2.6 percent. For seasonal flu, the rate typically averages around 0.1 percent. Basically, the German researchers found that the coronavirus kills about four times as many infected people than seasonal flu viruses do.

The German researchers caution that it would be wrong to extrapolate these regional results to the whole country. But they also believe these findings show that lockdowns can begin to be lifted, as long as people maintain high levels of hygiene to keep COVID-19 under control.“

Preliminary German Study Shows a COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rate of About 0.4 Percent

 

[JonC]

“Over the last two weeks, German virologists tested nearly 80 percent of the population of Gangelt for antibodies that indicate whether they'd been infected by the coronavirus. Around 15 percent had been infected, allowing them to calculate a COVID-19 infection fatality rate of about 0.37 percent. The researchers also concluded that people who recover from the infection are immune to reinfection, at least for a while.

For comparison, the U.S. infection fatality rates for the 1957–58 flu epidemic was around 0.27 percent; for the 1918 Spanish flu epidemic, it was about 2.6 percent. For seasonal flu, the rate typically averages around 0.1 percent. Basically, the German researchers found that the coronavirus kills about four times as many infected people than seasonal flu viruses do.

The German researchers caution that it would be wrong to extrapolate these regional results to the whole country. But they also believe these findings show that lockdowns can begin to be lifted, as long as people maintain high levels of hygiene to keep COVID-19 under control.“

Preliminary German Study Shows a COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rate of About 0.4 Percent

So it is an educated guess applied to the group that is infected but has not recovered or died? (based on those infected but have developed antibodies and will probably not get sick or at least will probably recover)? Or are we counting people who tested for developed antibodies with the positive cases that will recover (or that have recovered)?

 

[KenH]

So it is an educated guess applied to the group that is infected but has not recovered or died?

After 2 weeks aren’t people usually getting better or dead by then?

 

[JonC]

After 2 weeks aren’t people usually getting better or dead by then?

I only know of four cases personally. Three were healthy people and one had health issues (he is not doing well and it's been about 8 weeks). The other three have been sick - bad but not enough to be hospitalized (they are in the same home). Last I heard they were not over it after two weeks but they were feeling much better.

I was just wondering if the numbers were a hypothesis (based on time) rather than based on hard data. The amount in "limbo" (those who still text positive but are not recovered and are not dead) are the wrench in the data being given us. But I do not know that we can count them as "recovered".

 

[Revmitchell]

Where do we get 98% recovery?

In the US about 50,000 have recovered and about 29,000 have died. Worldwide worldwide about 526,000 have recovered with about 137,000 deaths. How does this equate to a 98% recovery rate>

(Not debating, just asking to show the math because I can't see how it is determined).

Doctors: 98% of coronavirus patients survive, but many others could have contracted it and not known

Coronavirus: Facts vs. Fear


An Advantaged Disease, Indeed | RealClearPolitics

 

[Reformed1689]

And of course, the data is imperfect as you point out. There are other issues like age and the possibility COVID-19 was not actually the cause of death, ect.

Exactly!

 

[JonC]

Doctors: 98% of coronavirus patients survive, but many others could have contracted it and not known

Coronavirus: Facts vs. Fear


An Advantaged Disease, Indeed | RealClearPolitics

So these "survived" but are not counted as "recovered"?

The numbers seem accurate if we look at the number of cases minus the number of deaths.

It does not really matter much to me. I can just add this to the list of those things I do not get.

 

[KenH]

I can just add this to the list of those things I do not get.

We are in an active situation. I’m sure there will a plethora of medical studies about this over the next 2-3 years that will be more complete.

 

[Earth Wind and Fire]

Looks like this quarantine business my be a worthless endeavor after all...

Israeli Professor Shows Virus Follows Fixed Pattern

Tell Itzy to come to NYC so we can put him in front line hospital so he can collect more data for his research. And if he drops dead we will put him in the refrigerated morgue... bag him & tag him and have him sent back to Israel along with his bs study.

 

[Reformed1689]

Tell Itzy to come to NYC so we can put him in front line hospital so he can collect more data for his research. And if he drops dead we will put him in the refrigerated morgue... bag him & tag him and have him sent back to Israel along with his bs study.

What is "bs" about the study? These are statistics, numbers, objective data.

 

[Earth Wind and Fire]

What is "bs" about the study? These are statistics, numbers, objective data.

Right... BS

 

[KenH]

I really don’t understand how any Christian can be a doom-and-gloomer and just bash any hopeful news or thoughts, even during a pandemic. I don’t think that is the way we are supposed to live in Christ.

 

[Earth Wind and Fire]

I really don’t understand how any Christian can be a doom-and-gloomer and just bash any hopeful news or thoughts, even during a pandemic. I don’t think that is the way we are supposed to live in Christ.

We are not supposed to be sissies either. We have real problems out here on the front lines. So if you want to do something useful, stick out your neck and do something useful and lend a hand. Pollyanna statistical bs be damned.

 

[KenH]

“Rejoice in the Lord always; again I will say, rejoice. Let your reasonableness be known to everyone. The Lord is at hand; do not be anxious about anything, but in everything by prayer and supplication with thanksgiving let your requests be made known to God. And the peace of God, which surpasses all understanding, will guard your hearts and your minds in Christ Jesus.” - Philippians‬ ‭4:4-7‬ ‭ESV‬‬

“I have said these things to you, that in me you may have peace. In the world you will have tribulation. But take heart; I have overcome the world.” - John‬ ‭16:33‬ ‭ESV‬‬

 

[Reformed1689]

Right... BS

Can you give an objective response and not an emotional one please?

 

[Reformed1689]

We are not supposed to be sissies either. We have real problems out here on the front lines. So if you want to do something useful, stick out your neck and do something useful and lend a hand. Pollyanna statistical bs be damned.

Ok, let's be objective here, there are 213,779 confirmed cases in New York. That is only 1% of the population of the state. It is not as bad as you are making it out to be or the media is making it out to be.

 

[Earth Wind and Fire]

“Rejoice in the Lord always; again I will say, rejoice. Let your reasonableness be known to everyone. The Lord is at hand; do not be anxious about anything, but in everything by prayer and supplication with thanksgiving let your requests be made known to God. And the peace of God, which surpasses all understanding, will guard your hearts and your minds in Christ Jesus.” - Philippians‬ ‭4:4-7‬ ‭ESV‬‬

“I have said these things to you, that in me you may have peace. In the world you will have tribulation. But take heart; I have overcome the world.” - John‬ ‭16:33‬ ‭ESV‬‬

you quote scripture when all the while you are shuttered into your comfortable home oblivious to what is happening out in the real world.

So what’s going on here, is something disrupting your comfortable retirement life, perhaps concerns for your nest egg, what insecurities do you have that your not sharing?

you see, there are people hurting.... take a look around.

Ok, let's be objective here, there are 213,779 confirmed cases in New York. That is only 1% of the population of the state. It is not as bad as you are making it out to be or the media is making it out to be.

you been there?

 

[Reformed1689]

you see, there are people hurting.... take a

Not even sure what this means here...