Death rate 0.5% not 3 or 4% for covid-19, WHO numbers were absurd

[Scott Downey]

0.5 or even lower such as 0.1% depending on how many are infected, because the more infected the lower the death rate.
Looks Like Trump Was Right About The Coronavirus Fatality Rate

While this data is preliminary, it is backed up by another study in Los Angeles that found 40 times more people had carried the virus then were previously known. This dropped the fatality rate in LA from 4.5 percent to .1-.3 percent.

It is difficult to stress how important these findings are. The 5-week lockdown that has destroyed the American economy was put in place by contemplating what looks to be rather absurd numbers by the WHO.

 

[Scott Downey]

We Didn't ‘Flatten The Curve,’ We Flattened The U.S. Health Care System

The surge of patients sick and needing to go to hospital, which was one reason for shuttering the economy so hospitals could deal with the 'epidemic', never happened.

 

[just-want-peace]

We Didn't ‘Flatten The Curve,’ We Flattened The U.S. Health Care System

The surge of patients sick and needing to go to hospital, which was one reason for shuttering the economy so hospitals could deal with the 'epidemic', never happened.

Best thing ever for the [Democrat Party] (At least in their power-hungry thoughts.)

 

[church mouse guy]

Now there is a new study from Miami backing up the 2 from California and the 1 from New York. There is another study from Germany and 2 more soon to be published from Stanford University. Denmark is working on a study--I don't know the status of it. And there are many more underway.

Tens of millions of Americans had this Chinese virus and didn't know it. The cases started in January. The Chinese Communist Party lied about everything.

Will you buy anything from Communist China again?

 

[Gold Dragon]

Stat: Coronavirus 'serosurvey' results are coming. Here's how to kick their tires

This is a great article that can help understand how to interpret the hoardes of serological testing data that is coming out. Also mentions the NY study quite a bit.

But in the rush to get answers, the market has been flooded with a vast number of tests, most of which haven’t been validated. Some of the serological studies have also been more rigorous than others. Epidemiologists and statisticians have criticized some of the early headline-generating surveys for how they recruited participants and analyzed the data.

Some highlights include:
1. Yes there will be many undetected cases that will lower the calculated death rates

2. Most of these tests have not been validated yet because they were rushed to market so may be very inaccurate or are picking up non-covid19 coronavirus. There are also methodology problems with getting random representative samples in some of the studies.

3. Results are a snapshot of a certain place and time and difficult to extrapolate to other places and times. Results are more accurate in places like NY where there are many cases but less accurate in places where there have been very few cases and small errors in the tests are amplified.

4. Serology testing in Europe has suggested that only small proportions of their populations have yet to be exposed.

5. Positive serology showing some antibodies does not tell whether someone has enough antibodies to be immune and for how long. Mild infections seem to produce very low levels of antibodies.



And I will repeat my point that even though we know there are high levels of unconfirmed cases that lowers the death rate, that does not decrease the severity of the disease or the need for lockdowns. And in fact tells us that our control strategies are not effective at controlling infectivity which is a main problem of covid19, in addition to its hospitalization rate. However politically motivated sources will be trying fool themselves and others who are not good at math that this data means covid19 is no big deal. Don’t let them fool you.

 

[Gold Dragon]

A note about the California (Santa Clara and USC) tests.

New Covid-19 Antibody Study Results Are In. Are They Right?

The firm that makes the test, Hangzhou Biotest Biotech, was previously identified by NBC as among those recently banned from exporting Covid-19 tests because its product hasn’t been vetted by China’s equivalent of the FDA.

...

On Monday, a USC spokesperson emailed WIRED a statement from Neeraj Sood, the lead researcher, acknowledging the test’s origins and noting they were exported legally, prior to the ban.)

The NY and european data do look more reasonable. There are still questions about the NY data in terms of which test they used and its error rates.

 

[church mouse guy]

Stat: Coronavirus 'serosurvey' results are coming. Here's how to kick their tires

This is a great article that can help understand how to interpret the hoardes of serological testing data that is coming out. Also mentions the NY study quite a bit.



Some highlights include:
1. Yes there will be many undetected cases that will lower the calculated death rates

2. Most of these tests have not been validated yet because they were rushed to market so may be very inaccurate or are picking up non-covid19 coronavirus. There are also methodology problems with getting random representative samples in some of the studies.

3. Results are a snapshot of a certain place and time and difficult to extrapolate to other places and times. Results are more accurate in places like NY where there are many cases but less accurate in places where there have been very few cases and small errors in the tests are amplified.

4. Serology testing in Europe has suggested that only small proportions of their populations have yet to be exposed.

5. Positive serology showing some antibodies does not tell whether someone has enough antibodies to be immune and for how long. Mild infections seem to produce very low levels of antibodies.



And I will repeat my point that even though we know there are high levels of unconfirmed cases that lowers the death rate, that does not decrease the severity of the disease or the need for lockdowns. And in fact tells us that our control strategies are not effective at controlling infectivity which is a main problem of covid19, in addition to its hospitalization rate. However politically motivated sources will be trying fool themselves and others who are not good at math that this data means covid19 is no big deal. Don’t let them fool you.

You have little idea about what is happening in the USA. The death rate is very low, 1 or 2 per thousand, according to our medical science.

 

[Gold Dragon]

We Didn't ‘Flatten The Curve,’ We Flattened The U.S. Health Care System

The surge of patients sick and needing to go to hospital, which was one reason for shuttering the economy so hospitals could deal with the 'epidemic', never happened.

in Australia, we are celebrating that lockdowns and social distancing measures kept that from happening which was the goal. Only politically motivated sources trying to fool people into thinking that covid19 is no big deal would say that is a bad thing that hospitals were not overwhelmed.

 

[Gold Dragon]

You have little idea about what is happening in the USA. The death rate is very low, 1 or 2 per thousand, according to our medical science. Your scaremongering is boring.

Yes we have known for 3 months that death rates for covid19 are low compared to some infectious diseases and will be lower when you account for undetected cases. That was never the main problem with covid19 or the reason for lockdowns.

 

[church mouse guy]

Yes we have known for 3 months that death rates for covid19 are low compared to some infectious diseases and will be lower when you account for undetected cases. That was never the main problem with covid19 or the reason for lockdowns.

The Chinese Communists can spin this all they want but I don't think anyone wants to do business with them again.

Taiwan showed that lockdowns are not necessary. I imagine that Australia has ruined a lot of peoples lives so that the rich can buy up eveything cheap.

 

[church mouse guy]

0.5 or even lower such as 0.1% depending on how many are infected, because the more infected the lower the death rate.
Looks Like Trump Was Right About The Coronavirus Fatality Rate

While this data is preliminary, it is backed up by another study in Los Angeles that found 40 times more people had carried the virus then were previously known. This dropped the fatality rate in LA from 4.5 percent to .1-.3 percent.

It is difficult to stress how important these findings are. The 5-week lockdown that has destroyed the American economy was put in place by contemplating what looks to be rather absurd numbers by the WHO.

As you know, WHO is a wholly owned subsidiary of the Chinese Communist Party. The Tedros guy at the head of WHO is aligned with the Ethiopian communist party. He is big friends with Xi Jinping, aka ratso. Missing is the head of the Wuhan Institute, Shi Zhengli, an evil woman who may have manufactured this virus.

 

[church mouse guy]

The German study found a .37% death rate.

Taiwan had 6 deaths total as of yesterday and they never had a lockdown because they were prepared for a pandemic with N95 masks for everyone.

This is more or less a hoax.

 

[Gold Dragon]

4. Serology testing in Europe has suggested that only small proportions of their populations have yet to be exposed.

Correcting a typo. This should have said, European testing suggests only small proportions of their populations have so far been exposed.

 

[church mouse guy]

Correcting a typo. This should have said, European testing suggests only small proportions of their populations have so far been exposed.

Europe is also handicapped by socialistic medical systems controlled not by medical doctors and others seeking to provide first-class care but also by an EU that refused to help places like Italy that had a collapsed socialistic medical system. I don't know what kind of system Germany has, but with German wealth and attention to detail, they calculated a death rate of .37%.

South Africa has a lockdown but they are unable to enforce it in the townships so one would think that it has been abandoned even if in place officially although it is destroying the economy there according to ex-patriates.

 

[Gold Dragon]

The German study found a .37% death rate.

This sounds about right. It is still almost 4x the death rate of influenza.

Taiwan had 6 deaths total as of yesterday and they never had a lockdown because they were prepared for a pandemic with N95 masks for everyone.

Lockdowns are necessary to control infection rates when social distancing measures are unable to control exponential spread. Taiwan is an excellent example of how taking this disease seriously with aggressive, early measures were able to keep cases and infectivity low and avoid lockdowns. They had a pretty gradual closing of travel from China but were very aggressive with testing, communication and preparing its population. Countries that didn't take Covid19 seriously and were slow to act ran out of options and had to resort to lockdowns.

Here is a timeline of their actions from their CDC
Jan 6: All travellers from Wuhan with symptoms to report cases
Jan 9: Screen and potentially test all passengers on flights from Wuhan and masks for all symptomatic within 14 days
Jan 21: First case. Wuhan travel level 3: avoid all non-essential travel. Preparation for epidemic: quarantine measures in all ports, communication across govt agencies and public, battling fake news and panic to avoid mask shortages, preparing hospitals.
Jan 24: No air travel to Wuhan. All healthy people regardless of travel to practice hygeine and avoid crowded places. Regardless of travel stay home, wear mask and avoid public places if sick.
Jan 25: expand testing and reviews to all symptomatic travellers arriving in Taiwan
Jan 28: All of China travel level 3. Home isolation, contact tracing of all cases (8 confirmed)
Jan 29: Guidance for public transport, education, public gatherings to reduce infection rates
Jan 30: Domestically produced masks requisitioned and distributed by govt by need.
Feb 2: All travellers from China are to avoid health care facilties and health care workers for 14 days, particularly health care workers returning from China.
Feb 2: Start of school postponed 2 weeks.
Feb 3: All business people evacuated from Wuhan placed in single room isolation for 14 days.
Feb 4: Some stores cannot sell masks. Pharmacies distribute masks for govt, limiting masks to 2 per health care card per week at a fixed price. Masks not needed for healthy people unless visiting hospital or has chronic illnesses, to ration use.
Feb 5: Cruise ships from high risk places or with suspected cases banned from docking.
Feb 6: All Chinese nationals banned from entering. HK and Macau travellers self quarantine for 14 days.
Feb 10: 14D quarantine of all travellers from china and suspension of all flights from China except for a few major airports.
Feb 15: 14D quarantine travellers from all countries with endemic covid19
Feb 24: Mobile phone quarantine tracking required for all travellers from China
Mar 5: Public gatherings guidance.
Mar 14: Europe level 3 travel restriction
Mar 18: US, Canada, Australia, NZ level 3 travel restriction
Mar 22: All air travel suspended
Apr 1: Social distancing phase one. 1.5m. Masks in public. Avoid public events (ie entertainment) Preparation for phase 2.
Apr 3: 14D quarantine all travellers. Designated vehicles for return travellers getting home.
Apr 6: 14D quarantine for people who went to any crowded tomb sweeping festival sites.
Apr 7: expanding testing and hospital capacity
Apr 8: mobile phone quarantine app voluntarily for all in quarantine.
Apr 9: close all host/hostess clubs and ballrooms
Apr 10: crowd control measures in popular sites

 

[Gold Dragon]

I don't know what kind of system Germany has, but with German wealth and attention to detail, they calculated a death rate of .37%.

Taking covid19 seriously with early aggressive testing, isolating and contact tracing were key to Germany's approach, just like Taiwan. Germany, Australia and NZ all did a good job of early public health measures but still needed lockdowns because of how infective covid19 is. Higher numbers of undetected cases will tell us that covid19 is even more infective than previously calculated and justify the need for lockdowns even more, not less.

 

[church mouse guy]

The people of Taiwan are really our World War II allies. They know the communists in China very well since before World War II whenever Mao started a civil war. Franklin Delano Roosevelt is responsible for letting Mao have the Chinese mainland. We spent a lot of blood and gold flying over the Himalaya Mountains and building the Burma Road to supply China against the Japanese.

Taiwan/Formosa knows that the Chinese Communist Party is just murderous gangsters and they prepared medically after Sars but Obama did not.

Taiwan is more advanced medically than we are on this point. They are our old friends.

 

[Gold Dragon]

Lockdowns are necessary to control infection rates when social distancing measures are unable to control exponential spread.

Correction.

This should have said lockdowns are necessarily to control infections rates when public health measures are unable to control exponential spread. Public health measures can include social distancing. And the goal of lockdowns is not to prevent all death and infections but to reduce infection rates to the point where health systems are not overwhelmed and other public health measures can keep the infection rate under control. Once you get to that point, the lockdowns should be lifted in a phased way.

Trump's Opening Up America plan is a good starting point to guide states as to when and how they can safely do this. They could offer some more detailed guidance and clarification for some of the criteria, which they have since I first looked at it, but overall it is a good plan based on good public health principles. The hard part will be getting states to follow it.

 

[church mouse guy]

Correction.

This should have said lockdowns are necessarily to control infections rates when public health measures are unable to control exponential spread. Public health measures can include social distancing. And the goal of lockdowns is not to prevent all death and infections but to reduce infection rates to the point where health systems are not overwhelmed and other public health measures can keep the infection rate under control. Once you get to that point, the lockdowns should be lifted in a phased way.

Trump's Opening Up America plan is a good starting point to guide states as to when and how they can safely do this. They could offer some more detailed guidance and clarification for some of the criteria, which they have since I first looked at it, but overall it is a good plan based on good public health principles. The hard part will be getting states to follow it.

Actually Taiwan took steps in December to combat the Chinese Virus.

Social distancing is ineffective all over the world. It was widely disobeyed by Muslims worldwide. It is being disobeyed by Blacks in the Townships of South Africa. It is ignored in Latin America, especially in tje starving communist countries. It is being ignored with impunity by Blacks in the USA.

N95 masks are the answer. The lockdown should end here. Our hospitals are closed, our undertakers have too many empty caskets, Amazon is shortchanging the Post Office, and rich white Democrats are trying to buy up everything cheap.

Our medical system can now handle whatever is left as hot weather sweeps the country.

UK, Hong Kong, New Zealand, Canada, and Australia can continue with their heavy-handed march to police states with a disarmed public and arrests for those saying Trudeau and the Chinese communists stink.

 

[Scott Downey]

Actually Taiwan took steps in December to combat the Chinese Virus.

Social distancing is ineffective all over the world. It was widely disobeyed by Muslims worldwide. It is being disobeyed by Blacks in the Townships of South Africa. It is ignored in Latin America, especially in tje starving communist countries. It is being ignored with impunity by Blacks in the USA.

N95 masks are the answer. The lockdown should end here. Our hospitals are closed, our undertakers have too many empty caskets, Amazon is shortchanging the Post Office, and rich white Democrats are trying to buy up everything cheap.

Our medical system can now handle whatever is left as hot weather sweeps the country.

UK, Hong Kong, New Zealand, Canada, and Australia can continue with their heavy-handed march to police states with a disarmed public and arrests for those saying Trudeau and the Chinese communists stink.

For some reason some people have an axe to grind regarding covid virus. My thinking is they are socialists looking at this as an opportunity for the state to gain more power and grow bigger, and strip more power from individual freedoms.