Death rate 0.5% not 3 or 4% for covid-19, WHO numbers were absurd

[Gold Dragon]

The more testing is done, they find the % death rates continue to fall dramatically.
https://www.realclearscience.com/ar...erd_immunity_from_the_coronavirus_111374.html
Real infection death rates in Europe is 0.37%

These findings correspond with a case fatality rate of ~0.36% (or about four deaths in every 1,000 infected). This number is remarkably close to the case fatality rate of 0.37% reported recently from a seroprevalence study in Gangelt, Germany, and consistent with studies in Finland. It is much lower than the official case fatality rate of about 13% in the UK, Italy and France, which is well recognised to be a substantial overestimate owing to the very restrictive testing performed in most countries.

That sounds about right. It is still almost 4 times the fatality rate of influenza.

The CFR for countries with very few cases and lots of testing is somewhere round 1%. Assuming you miss around half of cases that are asymptomatic or very mildly symptomatic, you should get an IFR around 0.5%.

The fatality rate of influenza is around 0.1%.

 

[Scott Downey]

My sense is this, since this is a new (novel) virus, the death rate is skewed to the upside compared to the flu as no one had any prior experience with this, either medically or immunologically.

However it will not be a new novel virus after this season is over.
Then the death rate will fall to the levels of the regular respiratory flu virus.
So the higher death rate is temporary.

So I have written, so shall it be.
Stop setting public policies on panic and fake news from what I think of as craven fear mongering..

And in future seasons of this disease, if people are susceptible to dying from flu, they will be susceptible to dying from covid 19, there wont be any significant difference.

 

[Gold Dragon]

So I have written, so shall it be.
Stop setting public policies on panic and fake news from what I think of as craven fear mongering..

And in future seasons of this disease, if people are susceptible to dying from flu, they will be susceptible to dying from covid 19, there wont be any significant difference.

With a God-complex like that and thinking you already know the future. It makes sense now why you think you can actually understand scientific papers.

With these undetected cases, it shows that covid19 is much more infective than previously thought, making lockdowns even more important. The purpose of lockdowns is to control the infection rate of covid19. The purpose of researching treatments is to control its mortality rate.

 

[Scott Downey]

https://www.realclearscience.com/ar...source=spotim&utm_medium=spotim_recirculation

Death % heading lower again, down down again.

 

[InTheLight]

https://www.realclearscience.com/ar...source=spotim&utm_medium=spotim_recirculation

Death % heading lower again, down down again.

It's not the death rate. I don't know how many times this has been mentioned. It's the infectious nature of the virus and its ability to overwhelm our hospitals and health care workers.

That said, it looks like the curve has been flattened in most parts of the country. Let's start opening up.

 

[Scott Downey]

It's not the death rate. I don't know how many times this has been mentioned. It's the infectious nature of the virus and its ability to overwhelm our hospitals and health care workers.

That said, it looks like the curve has been flattened in most parts of the country. Let's start opening up.

Since 80 to 90% of people who the doctors put on ventilators in the ICU, die, their medical care saves a small percentage of people alive after treatment. Since there are no approved treatments, supportive care is all they can offer, except for the experimental drugs. My point is, the hospitals and doctors are not good at saving people dying of covid, and if you don't need the ICU, then you dont need the hospital to recover. People were going to hospital saying they cant breathe, doctors intubated them, and up to 90% of them died. They may have lived if not intubated., or may not, but only 12% of them who doctors intubated needed it or they were dead, that leaves many who got intubated who did not need it and died. I can imagine lawyers and families will flood the courts with wrongful death and malpractice lawsuits in the future.

 

[InTheLight]

Since 80 to 90% of people who the doctors put on ventilators in the ICU, die, their medical care saves a small percentage of people alive after treatment. Since there are no approved treatments, supportive care is all they can offer, except for the experimental drugs. My point is, the hospitals and doctors are not good at saving people dying of covid, and if you don't need the ICU, then you dont need the hospital to recover. People were going to hospital saying they cant breathe, doctors intubated them, and up to 90% of them died. They may have lived if not intubated., or may not, but only 12% of them who doctors intubated needed it or they were dead, that leaves many who got intubated who did not need it and died. I can imagine lawyers and families will flood the courts with wrongful death and malpractice lawsuits in the future.

Not one thing you said addressed my point, which was if you have hundreds of people going to the ER you will overwhelm the health care system, infect health care workers, and cause a terrible situation of having to make innumerable triage decisions.

Social distancing and stay at home orders have flattened the curve. The hospitals are not being overrun. It's time to sensibly open up the economy.

 

[Gold Dragon]

Since 80 to 90% of people who the doctors put on ventilators in the ICU, die, their medical care saves a small percentage of people alive after treatment. Since there are no approved treatments, supportive care is all they can offer, except for the experimental drugs.

The 80-90% figure is for NY where they were overrun. The numbers are similar in Italy and Wuhan.

But when the infection rate is controlled, the mortality rate may be close to 50% like in Seattle and as low as 30% in this Atlanta data undergoing peer review. Interestingly in Atlanta they had early ventilation as part of their guidelines so the jury is still out on the best time to initiate. Remember that the other study that your articles quoted advised delaying ventilator use because it is a scarce resource, not because it increases mortality.

medRxiv COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 preprints from medRxiv and bioRxiv

In some of the earliest reports of COVID 19 from Wuhan, mortality rates among those admitted to ICUs ranged from 52 - 62%, and increased to 86 –97% among those requiring invasive mechanical ventilation. In more recent data from the United Kingdom, 67% of those who had received mechanical ventilation died, as compared to 22% of patients intubated with viral pneumonia in the preceding three years. Early reports of smaller cohorts from Seattle, where some of the first COVID 19 outbreaks occurred in the United States, indicated that 50 - 67% of patients admitted to the ICU and 71 –75% of those receiving invasive mechanical ventilation died. A recently published report from New York also found high mortality of 88.1% among those who required mechanical ventilation
...
Further, while an analysis of the impact of clinical interventions on survival is beyond the scope of this brief report, our internal guidelines emphasized early intubation and standard lung - protective ventilation strategies.
...
Conclusion

In a cohort of critically ill adults with COVID 19, we report an early mortality rate of 25.8% overall and 29.7% for patients who received mechanical ventilation. While there may be a several factors underlying these findings, these results suggest that most patients with acute respiratory failure from COVID 19 may recover, even with severe disease requiring intubation and mechanical ventilation.

 

[RighteousnessTemperance&]

The 80-90% figure is for NY where they were overrun....

Are you certain NY was overrun? Seems the latest admission is that was never true, that they never needed more "vents" than they had and certainly not the 30-40k Cuomo originally demanded.

 

[Scott Downey]

Are you certain NY was overrun? Seems the latest admission is that was never true, that they never needed more "vents" than they had and certainly not the 30-40k Cuomo originally demanded.

Absolutely true, why do people try to make up such fake news

 

[Gold Dragon]

Cuomo Mocks FEMA Shipment: ‘You Want A Pat On The Back For Sending 400 Ventilators?’

The number of cases in New York is growing at a faster and more alarming rate than first expected, with the rate of infection now doubling every three days, Cuomo said.
...
Cuomo openly mocked a recent shipment from FEMA: “You want a pat on the back for sending 400 ventilators?” he angrily said at the press conference. “What are we going to do with 400 ventilators when we need 30,000?”
...
Cuomo urged the government to release its stockpile of ventilators and utilize the Defense Production Act to have companies make more, given that New York is in the greatest need right now: “We need the federal help and we need the federal help now,” he said.

Cuomo's 30,000 ventilator statement was made on March 24. At that time, the NY case numbers were doubling every 3 days with 26,000 confirmed cases. When you are in the middle of the exponential growth portion of the curve, it is impossible to predict when that exponential growth will slow down as the first minute of this video explains. Would a good leader only prepare for the best case scenario and say that everything is fine and only act after it is apparent they were underprepared? Or would they prepare for all scenarios, including the worst case scenario being played out at the same time across the pond in Italy?

It is good that social distancing, lockdowns and mobilizing other resources (central park field hospital, USNS Comfort, Javits Centre, relocating patients and expanding capacity, ventilator donations/loans/requisitions from China, other states, private groups and other parts of NY state) averted that worst case scenario. The Comfort and Javits treated so few patients because of their very strict transfer criteria.

Q: Was this change in procedure a result of some of the negative press surrounding the small number of patients that the USNS Comfort has taken since arriving in NYC? A: This is a complex situation that required us to continually assess the situation on the ground and the needs of the New York City hospitals. In order to admit more patients and relieve the pressure on the hospitals, it was necessary that we reassess our patient admission criteria to see how we could take on more patients. In order to protect our providers and our patients, we looked at ways to increase our patient population while mitigating the chance of transmitting COVID-19 on board.

But hospitals in NY were defintely "overrun" in that many hospitals were overwhelmed with covid19 patients in a short period of time that was beyond their capacity to manage and they needed outside help which for the most part they usually were able to get. Fortunately that period of time was short because lockdown measures were taken early enough. In 2 months there have been 959,000 cases, 67,800 hospitalizations, 18,900 deaths in the state.

Virus Deaths Mount, but N.Y. Avoids Predicted Surge at Hospitals So Far

Two weeks later, however, with an unprecedented shutdown of public schools, countless businesses and most of outdoor life, New York has managed to avoid the apocalyptic vision that some of the forecasters predicted.

The daily death toll has still been staggering, approaching 800 for a third straight day on Friday, and some hospitals continue to teeter on the brink of chaos.

But the number of intensive care beds being used declined for the first time in the crisis, to 4,908, according to daily figures released on Friday. And the total number hospitalized with the virus, 18,569, was far lower than the darkest expectations.
...
Mr. Cuomo has relied on several models in making his decisions, and while each is slightly different, they all convinced him that the wisest course of action was to plan for the worst while hoping for the best.
...
The governor also said that the discrepancy between the predictions and the actual statistics was because of the behavior of New Yorkers themselves. With some exceptions, New Yorkers have managed to follow the restrictions on movement and socializing.

Dr. Deborah Birx, the White House coronavirus response coordinator, seemed to agree and congratulated Mr. Cuomo and his counterparts on Friday for having slowed the tide of infections in their states.

“That has dramatically changed because of the impact of what the citizens of New York and New Jersey and across Connecticut and now Rhode Island are doing to really change the course of this pandemic,” Dr. Birx said.
...
The main objective in “flattening the curve” of the outbreak, apart from keeping people from dying, is to slow the spread enough to keep hospitals functioning.

And from the start of the coronavirus emergency, Mr. Cuomo has repeatedly taken the position that he would rather be prepared for a dire scenario that never came to pass than to blithely put his faith in optimistic forecasts.

 

[RighteousnessTemperance&]

Cuomo Mocks FEMA Shipment: ‘You Want A Pat On The Back For Sending 400 Ventilators?’


Cuomo's 30,000 ventilator statement was made on March 24. At that time, the NY case numbers were doubling every 3 days with 26,000 confirmed cases. When you are in the middle of the exponential growth portion of the curve, it is impossible to predict when that exponential growth will slow down as the first minute of this video explains. Would a good leader only prepare for the best case scenario and say that everything is fine and only act after it is apparent they were underprepared? Or would they prepare for all scenarios, including the worst case scenario being played out at the same time across the pond in Italy?

It is good that social distancing, lockdowns and mobilizing other resources (central park field hospital, USNS Comfort, Javits Centre, relocating patients and expanding capacity, ventilator donations/loans/requisitions from China, other states, private groups and other parts of NY state) averted that worst case scenario. The Comfort and Javits treated so few patients because of their very strict transfer criteria.


But hospitals in NY were defintely "overrun" in that many hospitals were overwhelmed with covid19 patients in a short period of time that was beyond their capacity to manage and they needed outside help which for the most part they usually were able to get. Fortunately that period of time was short because lockdown measures were taken early enough. In 2 months there have been 959,000 cases, 67,800 hospitalizations, 18,900 deaths in the state.

Virus Deaths Mount, but N.Y. Avoids Predicted Surge at Hospitals So Far

I am interested in the truth here, not in excuses as to why something wasn't or isn't true though claimed to be at the time. The truth is that they were not overrun, but that they were expecting a far worse scenario than materialized.

It is possible that while he was publicly panicking or posturing for the camera, Cuomo failed to actually prepare for the onslaught, so that some areas were not as well prepared as they should have been at the outset, but that is an entirely different matter, one of human incompetence or negligence within the state.

 

[Wingman68]

BREAKING: New CDC Coronavirus Data Cuts American Death Toll Nearly In HALF

 

[Gold Dragon]

I am interested in the truth here, not in excuses as to why something wasn't or isn't true though claimed to be at the time. The truth is that they were not overrun, but that they were expecting a far worse scenario than materialized.

Cuomo tells you his reasoning which makes absolute sense in the uncertainty of March 24. The truth is they were overrun AND they were preparing for a far worse scenario that didn’t materialize but very well could have given what was happening in Italy. And it took some historic actions by many people to avoid it.

 

[RighteousnessTemperance&]

Cuomo tells you his reasoning which makes absolute sense in the uncertainty of March 24. The truth is they were overrun AND they were preparing for a far worse scenario that didn’t materialize but very well could have given what was happening in Italy. And it took some historic actions by many people to avoid it.

No, you are ignoring the original issue and the reason for the comments. They were not overrun, or if they were, then it was due to their own incompetence, as they had all they ever needed when it was needed.

Cuomo was simultaneously sitting on ten thousand ventilators in storage in a warehouse in NJ and politically whining when he needed to be preparing and distributing, or else they were prepared and were not overrun. You cannot have it both ways.

 

[Scott Downey]

No, you are ignoring the original issue and the reason for the comments. They were not overrun, or if they were, then it was due to their own incompetence, as they had all they ever needed when it was needed.

Cuomo was simultaneously sitting on ten thousand ventilators in storage in a warehouse in NJ and politically whining when he needed to be preparing and distributing, or else they were prepared and were not overrun. You cannot have it both ways.

Corrupt administration.
Will corruption convictions stick to Cuomo? Don’t bet on it