Originally posted by npetreley:
14 I am the good shepherd; and I know My sheep, and am known by My own. 15 As the Father knows Me, even so I know the Father; and I lay down My life for the sheep. 16 And other sheep I have which are not of this fold; them also I must bring, and they will hear My voice; and there will be one flock and one shepherd.
In other words, Jesus talks about His sheep among all nations, not just Israel, in the same way "as I said to you." He says His sheep hear His voice and follow Him. So if it comes down to who His sheep are, and who aren't, and the principle applies to "other sheep not of this fold," that puts your hypothesis in a real pickle.
Who are His sheep? You said it yourself: Those who hear his voice and follow Him. That is the point of Jesus' entire analogy. He is pointing to the fact that His sheep can hear him and follow him.
Now here is a question: Who during this time could not hear and follow? Hardened Israel
Who could hear and follow? The Remnant and later when the message was brought to them so could the Gentiles.
He is speaking to a group of Pharisees, these people who want to kill him, these people who would crucify him and many of which later in Acts chapter 2 and 3 believe in Him through Peter's message, therefore, this passage can't be saying you will never be my sheep, but that you are not my sheep now, and because of your hardened hearts you cannot believe (John 12:37-41).
If you read the text objectively you will see the the point of this analogy was to point out the fact that there were some who could hear the shepherd and follow him and others who could not. Therefore, sheep were those who could hear and follow the rest were not sheep because they were apparently hardened as taught just two chapters later. This is not an analogy that is striving to teach the Calvinistic doctrine of "total inability" or "election" as you are attempting to make it.
It's an analogy that is teaching the same thing that the rest of the NT is teaching and that is the mystery of the gospel, which is that God is in Christ reconciling the world to himself. He is no longer dealing with Israel exclusively he is now making the message known to the Gentiles as well, to do this He has sent Christ who had to die for the sins of the world and in order to accomplish that God had to temporarily hardened most of Israel until the Gentiles were grafted in.
In light of that truth, this analogy only makes sense if the sheep being referred to in this passage are those who have not been temporarily hardened.
So this passage is saying, The sheep will hear and believe but you can't believe right now because you are not my sheep. Meaning you are not able to hear, see, understand or believe. You have been deafened, blinded and given a hardened heart to ensure that you won't believe in order that God will fulfill His purpose through your disobedience.
So this passage is simple if you understand this:
Sheep = Those who are not temporarily hardened that have the ability to hear the voice of the shepard and be saved.
NOT Sheep = Those who are temporarily hardened by God (or continually hardened by their own rebellion) who are unable to see, hear, understand and believe.