Is the Death Rate really 6%? Does truth matter?

[Calminian]

We have a poster here who adamantly touts 6%, and another who scolds me when I bring this up, saying death ratio doesn't matter. Only the totals matter.

My view: data matters and truth matters.

The WHO director very early on told the world the death rate was 3.4% (I don't even think he would consider 6%). He also warned the virus was multiplying many times faster than known flu viruses. That part was true.

If the kill rate is anywhere near 3-6%, and multiplying many times faster than normal flu, I can see why the world is panicking and shutting everything down. I can see why Cuomo thought he'd need so many ventilators! You'd almost be crazy not to panic.

But the truth is, the kill rate is nowhere near these numbers, and we've known this for a long time. .2% would be a high estimate from one study. Other studies show it's closer to .1%, with 28 million Americans infected, another showing infections are 50 to 80 fold underestimated.

The WHO Lied, IHME Lied, Fauci Bought the Lies: Latest International Study Shows COVID-19 Mortality Rate at 0.2% Not 3.4% – Why Was The Gateway Pundit the Only One to Catch This?​

If this is true (and we know it is), strategies need to change. We now need to be much more worried about triggering a nationwide (and global) economic depression.

To those who argue the death totals are alarming, I agree. The President would agree. We have one city in dire straights that accounts for half the deaths. Otherwise, the rest of the country is doing relatively well. Hopefully we can learn why NY is such an anomaly.

Bottom line, let's not allow the cure to be worse than the disease. We have to open up the country.

 

[37818]

To know the actual death rate one would have to know the number of deaths do to the C19 and the number of the population having been infected by it. rate = 100 x ( deaths ÷ infected).

 

[Reformed1689]

New Study Shows Coronavirus Infections Much Higher, Death Rate Much Lower Than Reported

 

[JonC]

To know the actual death rate one would have to know the number of deaths do to the C19 and the number of the population having been infected by it. rate = 100 x ( deaths ÷ infected).

And to really know we would have to be done with the virus (the number of cases without a conclusion us a moving target).

 

[Martin Marprelate]

But a 0.2% mortality rate would still mean around 700,000 dead Americans if no precautions were taken, right?

 

[Calminian]

But a 0.2% mortality rate would still mean around 700,000 dead Americans if no precautions were taken, right?

We have less than 40K at this point, and the deaths are dropping pretty fast.


New York Lowest Death Toll in Two Weeks

So maybe .02 is too high.

 

[Nicolaus Mourer]

But a 0.2% mortality rate would still mean around 700,000 dead Americans if no precautions were taken, right?

You're assuming everyone in the country will contract the virus.

 

[church mouse guy]

The death rate is like that of normal flu--1 or 2 per thousand. Early studies are showing that.

 

[37818]

And to really know we would have to be done with the virus (the number of cases without a conclusion us a moving target).

One thread here on the BB indicated 1/3 of a sample population was said to show evidence of already having that virus. What was the sample size? Now what was the known number of deaths in the group from that virus? What was the size of this affected population from which the sample was taken? Now with those numbers an real estimate can be made and a statistician can calculate a +- probable error value.

 

[JonC]

One thread here on the BB indicated 1/3 of a sample population was said to show evidence of already having that virus. Now what was the known number of deaths in the group from that virus? What was the size of this affected population from which the sample was taken? Now with those numbers an real estimate can be made and statistician can calculate a +- probable error value.

What is the recovery rate using the same method (recovered/cases)?

It is 25.6% worldwide.

 

[church mouse guy]

"A team of researchers from Stanford University and other California colleges recruited volunteers in Santa Clara County to take blood tests and the stunning results show that 50 times more people than projected have had the coronavirus and now possess the antibodies that makes them immune."

CA Study: 50 Times More People Than Projected Have Had Coronavirus

These results are coming in from studies in other places but there have not been very many studies yet. Major League Baseball is allowing studies of their teams this summer.

The death rate is now thought to be like the normal flu--1 or 2 per thousand. Apparently many have had it and didn't even know it. It's time to go back to work.

 

[atpollard]

But a 0.2% mortality rate would still mean around 700,000 dead Americans if no precautions were taken, right?

Another statistical point to take into consideration is that only 60% of a population can become infected before a concept called “herd immunity” takes effect. At 60% the virus in unlikely to find a new host to spread to during the period when it can be transferred, so the virus dies out. That places 0.2% of 60% of 300,000,000 people in the US as an absolute upper limit. Based on previous pandemics, about 90,000,000 Americans would be infected so 180,000 deaths is a real projection for something like a Spanish Influenza Pandemic. A normal “flu season” is over 30,000 deaths. They just don’t report each and every flu death on TV every hour broken down by state and city.

The “shut everything down” solution made sense for a prediction of 2.2 million deaths in the US, but more data has shown that we are looking at a 40,000-60,000 death flu season instead of a 30,000 death flu season in the US. The deaths caused world wide from starvation and malnutrition due to the economic damage will dwarf the SARS-CoV-2 deaths as this international economic bust plays out.

 

[church mouse guy]

Another statistical point to take into consideration is that only 60% of a population can become infected before a concept called “herd immunity” takes effect. At 60% the virus in unlikely to find a new host to spread to during the period when it can be transferred, so the virus dies out. That places 0.2% of 60% of 300,000,000 people in the US as an absolute upper limit. Based on previous pandemics, about 90,000,000 Americans would be infected so 180,000 deaths is a real projection for something like a Spanish Influenza Pandemic. A normal “flu season” is over 30,000 deaths. They just don’t report each and every flu death on TV every hour broken down by state and city.

The “shut everything down” solution made sense for a prediction of 2.2 million deaths in the US, but more data has shown that we are looking at a 40,000-60,000 death flu season instead of a 30,000 death flu season in the US. The deaths caused world wide from starvation and malnutrition due to the economic damage will dwarf the SARS-CoV-2 deaths as this international economic bust plays out.

Yeah, the idea that 700,000 Americans will die of this flu is incorrect. If 20 or 25 million have already had this flu, then the death rate is just slightly higher than regular flu or much like regular flu. It is more contagious, however, but for every reported case 50 more have had this flu and didn't even know it until tested. It is time to go back to work. The problem is in nursing homes and places like New York City. It is not a problem in rural Indiana. It is time to go back to work.

 

[Benjamin]

We have a poster here who adamantly touts 6%, and another who scolds me when I bring this up, saying death ratio doesn't matter. Only the totals matter.

My view: data matters and truth matters.

The truth is that the flu doesn’t send people running to the hospital anywhere near that of the effects of COVID-19. No comparison!

The truth is the seasonal flu doesn’t threaten to overrun our hospitals. Again, there is no comparison.

The truth is that the only reason our hospitals aren’t being overrun at this time is BECAUSE of the mediation of social distancing. To just suddenly drop it now and let the disease run its course is insanity.

The truth is that if we are not very careful, do it slowly and take many precautions that many millions of people could become infected and 20% of those would likely need hospital care and could still easily overrun our hospitals.

The truth is we know when the virus arrived in the USA and shortly after it arrived we started seeing people showing up at the hospital, so those people so desperately insistent that there are hundreds of thousands of asymptomatic people which drastically change the number of cases in order to try to deflate the death rate and the seriousness of this disease are hypocritically trying to manipulate the numbers on nothing more than wishful thinking because we do not yet know the number of people who been infected.

The truth is we have just started doing tests for antibodies, that the test has just been approved and the experts that developed this test are saying we need to be cautious about the results until they are verified and those claiming we have large numbers of people tested that have antibodies are lying to feed their narrative.

The truth is we need a lot more test available for antibodies and active viral infections in order to manage a system to safely open up the country and that is why we have to take it slow and do it in phases.

The truth is that so many people are being tested for active COVID-19 in the USA because they fear they might have symptoms that 95% are coming up negative so the current testing does carry some weight to amount of positive cases.

The truth is if you divide the number of cases being reported by the number the number of deaths being reported in the USA:

That 39,014 deaths is 5.3% of the 738,830 cases reported in the USA.
United States Coronavirus: 738,913 Cases and 39,015 Deaths - Worldometer

That 160,757 deaths is 6.9% of the 2,330,987 reported cases worldwide.
Coronavirus Update (Live): 2,331,085 Cases and 160,759 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

…and this death rate has not been declining with more test becoming available but on the contrary this death rate has been steadily climbing!

The truth is that the “Herd Immunity” idea takes 2/3rds of a population to be infected to be effective in stopping the spread and defeating the virus. Simple math of 2/3rds of our population is 220,000,000 people would have to be infected and even a 3% death rate that would mean 6,600,000 in this country could die in a short time!!!

The truth is that this disease is so infectious, way more infectious than the Spanish flu, that if left unchecked and allowed to run to its course it would infect 100s of millions of people.

The truth is that our mitigation is working to give us time to deal with this disease and to simply stop social distancing without a very controlled and slow opening up and to risk having to rely on a Herd Immunity resolution because of panicking over the economy is the agenda of fools!!

 

[church mouse guy]

The truth is that for every case reported there are about 50 more who never even knew they were infected. So that makes the death rate about the same as regular flu or 1 or 1 per 1,000.

Time to get back to work.

 

[Benjamin]

The truth is

that for every case reported there are about 50 more who never even knew they were infected.

NO! That is absolutely not the truth! That is wishful thinking, an unverified lie and a very dangerous and ignorant false claim to justify your mindless conclusion!

 

[Benjamin]

"A team of researchers from Stanford University and other California colleges recruited volunteers in Santa Clara County to take blood tests and the stunning results show that 50 times more people than projected have had the coronavirus and now possess the antibodies that makes them immune."

BTW, this study was an un-vetted joke. If you read their study they don't even have a reliable blood test, it is unproven and they even admit this at the end of their report, ...YET it is being reported as some kind of fact! Fake news, my man!

 

[InTheLight]

We have a poster here who adamantly touts 6%, and another who scolds me when I bring this up, saying death ratio doesn't matter. Only the totals matter.

The truth is that only the total number of deaths matter.

The truth is in the last 8 hours another 1,000 Americans have died of Covid-19.

Huh. That's right about the 3,000 per day rate that Benjamin said we would reach.

Is 3,000 people dying per 24 hours not alarming to you?

The total number of Americans dead from Covid-19 is now 38,664. One month ago the total number of Americans dead was 58. Let that sink in.

But go ahead and cite unvetted studies of infection rates really being 0.1% AS IF THAT MATTERS.

When there are 100,000 people dead you going to cling to the idea that it's the infection rate, not the deaths that is the real truth here?

 

[church mouse guy]

BTW, this study was an un-vetted joke. If you read their study they don't even have a reliable blood test, it is unproven and they even admit this at the end of their report, ...YET it is being reported as some kind of fact! Fake news, my man!

You know I doubt if you are a research scientist. It is one study but the Germans have about the same results.

The CDC is not doing any research--that has been left to places like the Hoover Institution.

For evey person reported, there are 50 showing antibodies. That means 1 or 2 deaths per 1,000. If we had had N95 masks, there would be no shut down. America was unprepared. The CDC is a Democrat joke. They were working on racism and Islamaphobia and had no plan for a pandemic.

 

[church mouse guy]

The truth is that only the total number of deaths matter.

The truth is in the last 8 hours another 1,000 Americans have died of Covid-19.

Huh. That's right about the 3,000 per day rate that Benjamin said we would reach.

Is 3,000 people dying per 24 hours not alarming to you?

The total number of Americans dead from Covid-19 is now 38,664. One month ago the total number of Americans dead was 58. Let that sink in.

But go ahead and cite unvetted studies of infection rates really being 0.1% AS IF THAT MATTERS.

When there are 100,000 people dead you going to cling to the idea that it's the infection rate, not the deaths that is the real truth here?

Regular flu killed 40,000 this year. This is another flu but it is more contagious but the death rate is about the same. It is mild in many people--we may have all had it and not known. Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Kentucky, and Indiana are in a group trying to decide when to go back to work. I think the worse states are Illinois, Michigan, and Indiana.

The IRS is having trouble delivering the $1200 to people. It's just time to go back to work.