Is the Death Rate really 6%? Does truth matter?

[Yeshua1]

We have a poster here who adamantly touts 6%, and another who scolds me when I bring this up, saying death ratio doesn't matter. Only the totals matter.

My view: data matters and truth matters.

The WHO director very early on told the world the death rate was 3.4% (I don't even think he would consider 6%). He also warned the virus was multiplying many times faster than known flu viruses. That part was true.

If the kill rate is anywhere near 3-6%, and multiplying many times faster than normal flu, I can see why the world is panicking and shutting everything down. I can see why Cuomo thought he'd need so many ventilators! You'd almost be crazy not to panic.

But the truth is, the kill rate is nowhere near these numbers, and we've known this for a long time. .2% would be a high estimate from one study. Other studies show it's closer to .1%, with 28 million Americans infected, another showing infections are 50 to 80 fold underestimated.

The WHO Lied, IHME Lied, Fauci Bought the Lies: Latest International Study Shows COVID-19 Mortality Rate at 0.2% Not 3.4% – Why Was The Gateway Pundit the Only One to Catch This?​

If this is true (and we know it is), strategies need to change. We now need to be much more worried about triggering a nationwide (and global) economic depression.

To those who argue the death totals are alarming, I agree. The President would agree. We have one city in dire straights that accounts for half the deaths. Otherwise, the rest of the country is doing relatively well. Hopefully we can learn why NY is such an anomaly.

Bottom line, let's not allow the cure to be worse than the disease. We have to open up the country.

Current US deasth rate at about 1 percent!

 

[Salty]

New York State
11 counties.......... 0 deaths
29 counties...........1-9 deaths
11 counties...........10-40 deaths
5 counties...........50-400 deaths
3 Counties.........800-1400 deaths
NY City................10,657 deaths......140,000 cases = 7.61%..........population 8.2 million = 1.7% infected....= 0.12% deaths of population
+ 57 counties.........4,171 deaths......112,000 cases = 3.72%...........................11.2 million = 1.0% infected....=0.03% death of population
Grand total...........14,828 deaths......252,000...........= 5.88%...........................19.4 million = 1.29%..............= 0.07% death of population

Note:
1. There are 5 counties within NY City
2. Most of the 8 counties w/ 50+ deaths are adjacent to NY City

Total of 62 counties:

Link for NY State info
Should be easy to find the stats for your State/commonwealth

 

[Reformed1689]

The truth is that the flu doesn’t send people running to the hospital anywhere near that of the effects of COVID-19. No comparison!

The truth is the seasonal flu doesn’t threaten to overrun our hospitals. Again, there is no comparison.

The truth is that the only reason our hospitals aren’t being overrun at this time is BECAUSE of the mediation of social distancing. To just suddenly drop it now and let the disease run its course is insanity.

The truth is that if we are not very careful, do it slowly and take many precautions that many millions of people could become infected and 20% of those would likely need hospital care and could still easily overrun our hospitals.

The truth is we know when the virus arrived in the USA and shortly after it arrived we started seeing people showing up at the hospital, so those people so desperately insistent that there are hundreds of thousands of asymptomatic people which drastically change the number of cases in order to try to deflate the death rate and the seriousness of this disease are hypocritically trying to manipulate the numbers on nothing more than wishful thinking because we do not yet know the number of people who been infected.

The truth is we have just started doing tests for antibodies, that the test has just been approved and the experts that developed this test are saying we need to be cautious about the results until they are verified and those claiming we have large numbers of people tested that have antibodies are lying to feed their narrative.

The truth is we need a lot more test available for antibodies and active viral infections in order to manage a system to safely open up the country and that is why we have to take it slow and do it in phases.

The truth is that so many people are being tested for active COVID-19 in the USA because they fear they might have symptoms that 95% are coming up negative so the current testing does carry some weight to amount of positive cases.

The truth is if you divide the number of cases being reported by the number the number of deaths being reported in the USA:

That 39,014 deaths is 5.3% of the 738,830 cases reported in the USA.
United States Coronavirus: 738,913 Cases and 39,015 Deaths - Worldometer

That 160,757 deaths is 6.9% of the 2,330,987 reported cases worldwide.
Coronavirus Update (Live): 2,331,085 Cases and 160,759 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

…and this death rate has not been declining with more test becoming available but on the contrary this death rate has been steadily climbing!

The truth is that the “Herd Immunity” idea takes 2/3rds of a population to be infected to be effective in stopping the spread and defeating the virus. Simple math of 2/3rds of our population is 220,000,000 people would have to be infected and even a 3% death rate that would mean 6,600,000 in this country could die in a short time!!!

The truth is that this disease is so infectious, way more infectious than the Spanish flu, that if left unchecked and allowed to run to its course it would infect 100s of millions of people.

The truth is that our mitigation is working to give us time to deal with this disease and to simply stop social distancing without a very controlled and slow opening up and to risk having to rely on a Herd Immunity resolution because of panicking over the economy is the agenda of fools!!

I honestly believe if there wasn't the media hype half of the people that are rushing to the hospital with COVID wouldn't rush to the hospital because of it.

 

[JonC]

But a 0.2% mortality rate would still mean around 700,000 dead Americans if no precautions were taken, right?

Again, how did you come up with that number?

We cannot evaluate your post if you are ashamed to answer for yourself.

The reason I ask is you make a statement and then ask for agreement. How can we know if you shy away from explaining your thought process?

Do all who are exposed to the COVID-19 virus develop the COVID-19 disease? Are you considering all would be exposed?

 

[Reformed1689]

Do all who are exposed to the COVID-19 virus develop the COVID-19 disease? Are you considering all would be exposed?

Point of clarification, there is no Covid-19 virus, that is only the name of the disease. Sars-Cov-2 is the virus.

 

[JonC]

Point of clarification, there is no Covid-19 virus, that is only the name of the disease. Sars-Cov-2 is the virus.

Thank you.

I notice the CDC speaks of the "virus" that causes the COVID-19 disease.

Do you know if people get the Sars-Cov-2 virus but not COVID-19?

 

[Reformed1689]

Thank you.

I notice the CDC speaks of the "virus" that causes the COVID-19 disease.

Do you know if people get the Sars-Cov-2 virus but not COVID-19?

That I do not know. My guess would be yes, but I don't know.

 

[Yeshua1]

Point of clarification, there is no Covid-19 virus, that is only the name of the disease. Sars-Cov-2 is the virus.

Were both created by China?

 

[JonC]

But a 0.2% mortality rate would still mean around 700,000 dead Americans if no precautions were taken, right?

MM, are you still unable to explain how you come up with that number?

It is important when we tell what we think that we are capable and willing to explain how we arrived at our conclusions. There are several things that I wonder about when it comes to this virus, perhaps you can shed some light rather than adding to the confusion.

 

[JonC]

Were both created by China?

He's saying the virus, created in Chrna (Sars-Cov-2) is what causes the disease (COVID-19).

I had been referring to the virus as COVID-19 wrongly.

 

[Gold Dragon]

"A team of researchers from Stanford University and other California colleges recruited volunteers in Santa Clara County to take blood tests and the stunning results show that 50 times more people than projected have had the coronavirus and now possess the antibodies that makes them immune."

CA Study: 50 Times More People Than Projected Have Had Coronavirus

These results are coming in from studies in other places but there have not been very many studies yet. Major League Baseball is allowing studies of their teams this summer.

The death rate is now thought to be like the normal flu--1 or 2 per thousand. Apparently many have had it and didn't even know it. It's time to go back to work.

While it is generally agreed that serology tests will show us there are a lot of previously undetected cases and then lower the calculated death rate, there are some problems with the Stanford and USC studies, one of which is their actual test which I thought you would be interested to know is from China from a company with a bit of a checkered past.

New Covid-19 Antibody Study Results Are In. Are They Right?

“The comparison with the flu can be polarizing. I hope that’s not the headline,” Eran Bendavid, an infectious disease professor at Stanford and a coleader of the study, said at a press conference Friday, where he stressed that the seriousness of the pandemic shouldn’t be understated. Of course, for many—especially those who think the pandemic is overblown—that was the headline.

All of that might be moot if the testing devices used in both surveys turn out to be flawed. The results come amid widespread concerns about the accuracy of blood antibody tests—especially the rapid lateral flow tests like the ones used in this study. The Stanford preprint referred to a test from Premier Biotech, based in Minneapolis, but that company is only a distributor. The firm that makes the test, Hangzhou Biotest Biotech, was previously identified by NBC as among those recently banned from exporting Covid-19 tests because its product hasn’t been vetted by China’s equivalent of the FDA. A representative for Premier Biotech confirmed to WIRED that the same test was used by the Stanford and USC researchers. (On Monday, a USC spokesperson emailed WIRED a statement from Neeraj Sood, the lead researcher, acknowledging the test’s origins and noting they were exported legally, prior to the ban.)

At Stanford, the researchers performed their own validation of the tests and found only false negatives, not false positives. But, as a chorus of statisticians have noted (including one who concluded his analysis by demanding an apology from the researchers for wasting everyone’s time), even a low false positive rate would wipe out the significance of their results. Representatives for Stanford declined to make the researchers available for follow-up questions, including whether they planned to retest the positive individuals.

As more studies are done with actually validated tests, we will get a better idea of the true numbers and I expect there to be quite a lot of undetected cases. Which as I have said before, does not make covid19 is any less serious of a disease, and possibly more serious. The Stanford and USC data did look a bit unreasonable.

 

[church mouse guy]

While it is generally agreed that serology tests will show us there are a lot of previously undetected cases and then lower the calculated death rate, there are some problems with the Stanford and USC studies, one of which is their actual test which I thought you would be interested to know is from China from a company with a bit of a checkered past.

New Covid-19 Antibody Study Results Are In. Are They Right?





As more studies are done with actually validated tests, we will get a better idea of the true numbers and I expect there to be quite a lot of undetected cases. Which as I have said before, does not make covid19 is any less serious of a disease, and possibly more serious. The Stanford and USC data did look a bit unreasonable.

Nice try. Stanford University just has too good of a reputation. Also, New York showed about the same results. And then there is Germany and more tests are on the way.

 

[Yeshua1]

Nice try. Stanford University just has too good of a reputation. Also, New York showed about the same results. And then there is Germany and more tests are on the way.

See how the world is falling apart from Covid, what will be happening when the "virus" of Revelation is unleashed?

 

[church mouse guy]

See how the world is falling apart from Covid, what will be happening when the "virus" of Revelation is unleashed?

The Democrat Party is trying to abolish the Bill of Rights. They are running Joe Biden, accused of rape and known to put his hands all over little girls, and they are using their ignorant reporters to smear honest people just as Mussolini used to beat respectable people up and then pour liquor all over them to discredit them. The media is like the NBA--they take their marching orders from the Chinese Communist Party. Yeah, this Chinese Virus is essentially defeated but our 50 Governors are still washing their hands and asking what the truth is.

 

[Yeshua1]

The Democrat Party is trying to abolish the Bill of Rights. They are running Joe Biden, accused of rape and known to put his hands all over little girls, and they are using their ignorant reporters to smear honest people just as Mussolini used to beat respectable people up and then pour liquor all over them to discredit them. The media is like the NBA--they take their marching orders from the Chinese Communist Party. Yeah, this Chinese Virus is essentially defeated but our 50 Governors are still washing their hands and asking what the truth is.

Only bright news is that God still in control. and what they try for evil, God can turn it around for His glory and good!

 

[Gold Dragon]

Nice try. Stanford University just has too good of a reputation. Also, New York showed about the same results. And then there is Germany and more tests are on the way.

Just in case it got lost. Here are the two facts I thought you would be most interested in.

New Covid-19 Antibody Study Results Are In. Are They Right?

The firm that makes the test, Hangzhou Biotest Biotech, was previously identified by NBC as among those recently banned from exporting Covid-19 tests because its product hasn’t been vetted by China’s equivalent of the FDA.

...

On Monday, a USC spokesperson emailed WIRED a statement from Neeraj Sood, the lead researcher, acknowledging the test’s origins and noting they were exported legally, prior to the ban.)

I’m sure good serology testing will show us that there are many undetected cases and lower the mortality rate calculations. Which should make us more concerned about how infective and difficult to control covid19 is, not less concerned.

However these studies do not appear to be the ones who will give us good quality data for that information, not just because if the test they used but also their methodology and data analysis (the article highlights some) are widely criticized by the field. This is how peer review works, by opening up your paper to criticism we can all see the flaws in the research. Reputable universities and researchers get papers rejected all the time because they don’t pass the peer review process.