Lockdown is Nonsense at this point

[RighteousnessTemperance&]

Here's the problem:

One side uses the data we have avaliable. As long as they acknowledge their conclusions are based on the data we have then their conclusions are at least supported.

The other side denies the accuracy of the data. They just provide a conclusion based on circumstances they hope will come to pass.

I believe the flaw is in the unknown. I respect the science (those who use the data) and the reasonable challenge to the accuracy of the data.

You cannot prove the data wrong. You can only say you doubt it's accuracy and the largest segment has an unknown outcome. And I agree.

Only partially true. Those claiming science on their side have been making unwarranted statements for whatever reasons. Their early failures make them less trustworthy. For example, why recommend face masks now, after pooh-poohing the idea early on?

Relying on China and the WHO have made them less trustworthy. Saying we know better now, after grossly endangering everyone and exacerbating the problem is a real problem. Not promoting early, extensive testing and studies ASAP is also causing part of the problem we see now.

 

[church mouse guy]

S L A M D U N K

A New York test of anti-bodies of 3000 cases in 19 counties showed that probably 2.7 million New Yorkers have had the Chinese Flu. This aligns with worldwide and other US tests.

 

[JonC]

Only partially true. Those claiming science on their side have been making unwarranted statements for whatever reasons. Their early failures make them less trustworthy. For example, why recommend face masks now, after pooh-poohing the idea early on?

Relying on China and the WHO have made them less trustworthy. Saying we know better now, after grossly endangering everyone and exacerbating the problem is a real problem. Not promoting early, extensive testing and studies ASAP is also causing part of the problem we see now.

Yea.... Everyone is just making the best guesses they can.

Remember back in early March when they said face masks offered no protection?

 

[church mouse guy]

Here's the problem:

One side uses the data we have avaliable. As long as they acknowledge their conclusions are based on the data we have then their conclusions are at least supported.

The other side denies the accuracy of the data. They just provide a conclusion based on circumstances they hope will come to pass.

I believe the flaw is in the unknown. I respect the science (those who use the data) and the reasonable challenge to the accuracy of the data.

You cannot prove the data wrong. You can only say you doubt it's accuracy and the largest segment has an unknown outcome. And I agree.

Studies are pouring in from all over the world now with the same conclusion. New York conducted a study that suggests that 2.7 million people have had the Chinese Flu in New York. If you are generally healthy, the regular flu probably is more serious for you than this Chinese stuff.

Relax.

As for face masks, Taiwan proves that they are effective since Taiwan was prepared and no one else in the world was.

 

[Gold Dragon]

This lowers the death rate to around the same as regular flu, maybe slightly higher, but at a rate of 1 or 2 per thousand.

As I have said over and over again. The death rate for Covid19 is not the problem. It is how infective it is and how many people it sends to hospital, overwhelming the health system.

We have known for a long time that there are a lot of undetected cases so the CFR or case fatality rate (which is currently 5.5% in the US) will be higher than the IFR or infection fatality rate. With serology testing you can get a better idea of IFR if your testing is accurate and representative (many serology tests are still being validated for accuracy).

High rates of undetected cases doesn’t change the need for lockdowns and in fact increases the need because it tells us that covid19 is much more infectious than we thought and the number of hospitalizations will still overwhelm health systems.

Many politically motivated sources want to see a high number of undetected cases so that the mortality rate will appear lower and they can fool themselves and others who are not good at math into thinking that covid19 is not a big deal.

 

[JonC]

Studies are pouring in from all over the world now with the same conclusion. New York conducted a study that suggests that 2.7 million people have had the Chinese Flu in New York. If you are generally healthy, the regular flu probably is more serious for you than this Chinese stuff.

Relax.

As for face masks, Taiwan proves that they are effective since Taiwan was prepared and no one else in the world was.

I am relaxed. I'm enjoying working from home and the beaches are open and opening. It's like a vacation to an extent.

I just do not buy what either side is selling. I think it is too early to know.

 

[RighteousnessTemperance&]

Yea.... Everyone is just making the best guesses they can.

Remember back in early March when they said face masks offered no protection?

I probably didn't make my point sharp enough. They erred on the side of making things much worse in virtually every case, except lockdowns, then they wanted to practically shut down the entire country indefinitely. There is something very, very wrong with that picture.

 

[JonC]

I probably didn't make my point sharp enough. They erred on the side of making things much worse in virtually every case, except lockdowns, then they wanted to practically shut down the entire country indefinitely. There is something very, very wrong with that picture.

I probably made the same error with my point that on the other side there are people gambling on the hope the virus will not be as bad as feared.

I am not a gambling man. I do not believe the stats complete enough to make a hard conclusion. I do not believe there is evidence enough to claim all would have been fine without the measures taken (it has not been proven either).

I'm just living my life, watching some panic and others stroll past the graveyard in willful ignorance.

I'm planning my weekend, mountains or beach. When I go to get groceries I wear a mask and I wash my hands. I have stopped licking handrails. This life on earth goes on.... Until it doesn't.

 

[Gold Dragon]

The mask situation is simple to explain. It is true that surgical masks offer only partial or limited protection TO the wearer and are meant to protect everyone else FROM the wearer. They are designed to be worn by surgical teams to keep from contaminating the open wound of their patient. They still offer some protection to the wearer for blood splatter or large droplets from going directly in your mouth. But small aerosolized virus particles will easily get around the sides and gaps of the mask and still cause infection.

Early on when there was a massive shortage of masks, countries advised against the general public wearing masks to prioritize health workers. But as countries started getting more and more cases in the community it made sense to advise masks for everyone to prevent them from unknowingly spreading it to others (cloth masks do this almost as well as surgical masks so it saves the surgical masks for health workers). So your mask is more to keep others safe than it is to keep you safe, but it does provide you some protection.

N95 masks should be prioritized for those health workers directly working with Covid patients.

 

[RighteousnessTemperance&]

The mask situation is simple to explain. It is true that surgical masks offer only partial or limited protection TO the wearer and are meant to protect everyone else FROM the wearer. They are designed to be worn by surgical teams to keep from contaminating the open wound of their patient. They still offer some protection to the wearer for blood splatter or large droplets from going directly in your mouth. But small aerosolized virus particles will easily get around the sides and gaps of the mask and still cause infection.

Early on when there was a massive shortage of masks, countries advised against the general public wearing masks to prioritize health workers. But as countries started getting more and more cases in the community it made sense to advise masks for everyone to prevent them from unknowingly spreading it to others (cloth masks do this almost as well as surgical masks so it saves the surgical masks for health workers). So your mask is more to keep others safe than it is to keep you safe, but it does provide you some protection.

Yeah, I know what they're for, but that's not what they said about them, and as you have already pointed out umpteen times, they already knew about the spread by then. But regardless, the point is that they erred on the side of making things more dangerous, of spreading the virus more.

 

[Gold Dragon]

Yeah, I know what they're for, but that's not what they said about them, and as you have already pointed out umpteen times, they already knew about the spread by then. But regardless, the point is that they erred on the side of making things more dangerous, of spreading the virus more.

they prioritized health workers who needed it more at that time.

Public health communication is hard when you are trying to communicate complex concepts in a short period of time. That is why different levels of government absolutely need to be working together on the same page in a pandemic.

 

[RighteousnessTemperance&]

I probably made the same error with my point that on the other side there are people gambling on the hope the virus will not be as bad as feared.

I am not a gambling man. I do not believe the stats complete enough to make a hard conclusion. I do not believe there is evidence enough to claim all would have been fine without the measures taken (it has not been proven either).

I'm just living my life, watching some panic and others stroll past the graveyard in willful ignorance.

I'm planning my weekend, mountains or beach. When I go to get groceries I wear a mask and I wash my hands. I have stopped licking handrails. This life on earth goes on.... Until it doesn't.

Yes, I don't like that people don't properly practice social distancing, but I've thought that for most of my adult life. Flu has long been a deadly reality, but people just don't take it seriously enough. Even when it doesn't kill it can still cause a lot of downtime in the workplace. Smoking has long been a health hazard for others, but that's changed a lot by law. Now with SARS-Cov2 leading to COVID-19, people should do better, but how likely is that really? I'm guessing not nearly enough. It's just not in our DNA.

 

[RighteousnessTemperance&]

they prioritized health workers who needed it more at that time.

Public health communication is hard when you are trying to communicate complex concepts in a short period of time. That is why different levels of government absolutely need to be working together on the same page in a pandemic.

Yes, I appreciate your condescending spin on it. I probably shouldn't have listened to Fauci, that is, believed him when he said it. And actually I didn't, but not because it was him saying it, but because it didn't make logical sense, except that they wanted to reserve masks for others, which he did not say.

 

[Gold Dragon]

Yes, I appreciate your condescending spin on it. I probably shouldn't have listened to Fauci, that is, believed him when he said it. And actually I didn't, but not because it was him saying it, but because it didn't make logical sense, except that they wanted to reserve masks for others, which he did not say.

I was not being condescending but I’m sure you hear that in every post of mine.

Should you wear a face mask to protect against coronavirus?..

But the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says it "does not recommend that people who are well wear a facemask to protect themselves from respiratory diseases, including COVID-19."

"Facemasks should be used by people who show symptoms of COVID-19 to help prevent the spread of the disease to others," the CDC's website says. "The use of facemasks is also crucial for health workers and people who are taking care of someone in close settings (at home or in a health care facility)."

I don’t see anything inconsistent with what I said. Do you have a quote from Fauci? It was a resource allocation problem at the beginning. Then later with more community cases and more data about transmission and cloth masks, it made sense to change that recommendation to the current one.

 

[church mouse guy]

I am relaxed. I'm enjoying working from home and the beaches are open and opening. It's like a vacation to an extent.

I just do not buy what either side is selling. I think it is too early to know.

The tests are not political but medical science and they are coming from both sides of the aisle anyway.

We did the right thing by shutting down because the Chinese Flu is highly contagious and we did not know what we were facing and we were not one bit prepared for a pandemic.

However, we now know that the Chinese Virus is mild and the death rate is the same as regular flu, more or less--many are now saying less fatal. So the lockdown needs to end since there is no longer a medical reason for it as we do not lockdown during normal flu season.

I don't know why you reject medical advancement as something that is being sold. There are more tests coming in daily so the flood of evidence should soon drown out those who think that a lockdown is necessary.

Taiwan had masks and I think that they have 6 deaths so far out of 25,000,000 people--best in the world by far.

 

[Adonia]

We need to get out and acquire the "Herd Immunity" that will be required to beat this thing as a nation. Take care of the elderly and others with underlying health issues, but the rest of us need to get out and mix it up. This is just like letting your kid play in the dirt instead of keep him in a sterile environment.

 

[church mouse guy]

As I have said over and over again. The death rate for Covid19 is not the problem. It is how infective it is and how many people it sends to hospital, overwhelming the health system.

We have known for a long time that there are a lot of undetected cases so the CFR or case fatality rate (which is currently 5.5% in the US) will be higher than the IFR or infection fatality rate. With serology testing you can get a better idea of IFR if your testing is accurate and representative (many serology tests are still being validated for accuracy).

High rates of undetected cases doesn’t change the need for lockdowns and in fact increases the need because it tells us that covid19 is much more infectious than we thought and the number of hospitalizations will still overwhelm health systems.

Many politically motivated sources want to see a high number of undetected cases so that the mortality rate will appear lower and they can fool themselves and others who are not good at math into thinking that covid19 is not a big deal.

You always denigrate American things. Our medical science is not political because we have not descended into a socialistic medical system such as Canada or the UK. One could hardly imagine that the University of Southern California is conservative and yet they say that the number of unreported cases is 28 to 55 times the number of reported cases. A study released today from New York, a uber liberal Democrat state says that probably 2.7 million New Yorkers have had the Chinese Virus. The American people are saying loud and clear that they don't want to buy anything from Communist China again.

 

[Gold Dragon]

One could hardly imagine that the University of Southern California is conservative and yet they say that the number of unreported cases is 28 to 55 times the number of reported cases. A study released today from New York, a uber liberal Democrat state says that probably 2.7 million New Yorkers have had the Chinese Virus.

Like I said we know that there are many unconfirmed cases, just like these studies show and the mortality rate is low like I have always stated. The actual number is still fuzzy as many serology tests have been rushed to market haven’t been validated properly and may be picking up non-covid19 coronavirus antibodies.

The political problem is what you do with that information and certain groups will be trying to fool people not so good at math to say that a low mortality rate means this virus is nothing to worry about. When what all these undetected cases are actually telling us is that covid19 is many many times more infective than influenza and our lockdowns and social distancing measures are not enough.

 

[church mouse guy]

Like I said we know that there are many unconfirmed cases, just like these studies show and the mortality rate is low like I have always stated. The actual number is still fuzzy as many serology tests have been rushed to market haven’t been validated properly and may be picking up non-covid19 coronavirus antibodies.

The political problem is what you do with that information and certain groups will be trying to fool people not so good at math to say that a low mortality rate means this virus is nothing to worry about. When what all these undetected cases are actually telling us is that covid19 is many many times more infective than influenza and our lockdowns and social distancing measures are not enough.

There you go again. The tests are pouring in from all over the world. You are trying to make a political case with medical data. People down south where the weather is warm are already going back to work. Even here in the north our temperatures are in the 60s. People who are ill should self quarantine. Tens of millions have already had this disease and did not know it. I only know of one person who has had it. I don't know what the Democrats governors will do but here in Indiana we should open up for work on May 1 and we really could go today. New York City could be shut down for longer and some of these other hotspots but it is really winding down now. We just don't shut down for the flu.

 

[Gold Dragon]

We just don't shut down for the flu.

That is right we don’t. Because the flu is not as infective as covid19 (serology results suggest it is even more infective than previously thought) and doesn’t send as many people to hospital as covid19 that overwhelms health systems. That is the reason for the shutdowns, not the death rate as I have repeatedly stated over and over again on this forum.