You can call a duck a chicken, a monkey or an automobile but it’s still a duck. You can call being born of water natural birth all day long but it is still baptism. And despite your pleas to the contrary, John Chrysotom never intimated anything else. I did read the five paragraphs between your quoted text and mine. Judging by your picture, I probably read them for the first time long before you finished high school. Anyway, I just read them again and they absolutely, unequivocally assert that being born of water is not natural childbirth. For example,
I have come to bring a new manner of Creation. I formed (man) of earth and water; but that which was formed was unprofitable, the vessel was wrenched awry; I will no more form them of earth and water, but 'of water' and 'of the Spirit.'
I stand by my original assertion that 100% of the early Christian writers hold that John 3:5 is referring to Christian baptism. That is a fact and you can deny it all day long but denying it doesn’t change what it is. I realize this is difficult for you because it works great mischief to your soteriology but that doesn’t alter its truth.