Barack Obama has a 48% to 39% advantage over Mitt Romney among independent voters in 12 key swing states. He first moved ahead of Romney among this group in February after being tied in January and trailing last year.
Obama leads Romney by 51% to 42% in the swing states, his first lead in five waves of interviewing in those states.
Obama's standing against Romney has improved substantially in the swing states among women. Among independents, he has gained among both men and women, but more so among women. In combined data from October and December 2011, Obama trailed Romney by 11 percentage points among independent men and five points among independent women. In combined data from February and March, Obama has a one-point advantage among independent men and a 14-point advantage among independent women.
Obama's share of the vote has increased by eight percentage points among both independent men and women in swing states since last year. As would be expected, Romney's share of the vote has correspondingly decreased, but it has dropped significantly more among women (11 points) than among men (four points).
Implications
Independent voters in the most competitive states may be the quintessential swing group, perhaps holding the key to victory for either Obama or his Republican opponent. Since last fall, their support has shifted toward Obama over his likely Republican opponent Romney, after previously favoring Romney. And it is those independent voters -- particularly women -- who are driving Obama's overall lead in swing states.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/153764/Obama-Solidifying-Lead-Among-Independents-Swing-States.aspx