So Far the Navy Hospital Ships Have Treated 18 Patients

[KenH]

The COVID-19 virus is not a problem so far in my county, Union, in Arkansas. And I thank God for that. We have only 10 cases so far, which equals 1 case for every 3900 residents or 1 case for every 100 square miles in the county. Yet it is still hard to find toilet paper or paper towels.

 

[Calminian]

Click on the above link

Go ahead and lay it out for us GD.

 

[church mouse guy]

The COVID-19 virus is not a problem so far in my county, Union, in Arkansas. And I thank God for that. We have only 10 cases so far, which equals 1 case for every 3900 residents or 1 case for every 100 square miles in the county. Yet it is still hard to find toilet paper or paper towels.

We have that stuff but I can't find much disinfectant or liquid hand soap. Rural Indiana is not hit hard yet but Indianapolis is because of crowed buses and crowded areas. I can't get a haircut so I am looking for a violin case so people will think that I am a long-haired musician!

 

[KenH]

I can't get a haircut so I am looking for a violin case so people will think that I am a long-haired musician!

Yeah, I can sympathize. I needed one and then before I got one my governor closed all the barber shops and beauty salons.

 

[Gold Dragon]

Go ahead and lay it out for us GD.

You are too lazy to click on a link and look?

It lists all the states and the ones that don’t provide info for that field have N/A on them. Just going though the first few letters of the alphabet, it is maybe about a 1/3 of states that publish some data and most of those it is only hospitalizations. You can have a look for yourself.


Edit: it is more like 1/2 of the states have no data. Notably Michigan and New Jersey.

 

[Calminian]

You are too lazy to click on a link and look?

It lists all the states and the ones that don’t provide info for that field have N/A on them. Just going though the first few letters of the alphabet, it is maybe about a 1/3 of states that publish some data and most of those it is only hospitalizations. You can have a look for yourself.

Suit yourself. Just asking you to lay it out for us (how you think your link refutes the article posted). You're being very vague. And to accuse me of being lazy is a bit over the top, don't you think? Are you being lazy by proving a link instead of explaining your argument?

Also explain what you think is missing from the Covid Tracking project that makes it numbers so wildly wrong.
Most recent data

 

[Gold Dragon]

Suit yourself. Just asking you to lay it out for us (how you think your link refutes the article posted). You're being very vague. And to accuse me of being lazy is a bit over the top, don't you think? Are you being lazy by proving a link instead of explaining your argument?

Also explain what you think is missing from the Covid Tracking project that makes it numbers so wildly wrong.
Most recent data

I’ve already explained it twice to you but here we go again. This is from their site.

We report current and cumulative numbers provided by states, supplemented by trusted press sources. Because some states only report "Current" numbers, the nationwide "Current" numbers can be higher than that of the reported "Cumulative" totals. We know, of course, that the true cumulative numbers are much higher, but we can only report the numbers we have access to. We are actively working with states to request that they expand their reporting.

Then if you click on their link and look at each state, they tell you the data they have for hospitalizations, icu and ventilators. A lot of states have N/A in the field because they have no data. Sometimes that also means that the value is 0 for states where the case numbers are low. But for a lot of cases it is because the state does not publish that data.

For states that do have data, it is mostly only hospitalizations. So while that number is still well below the true number, it is probably the closest to being accurate of the 3 cummulative totals.

 

[Use of Time]

Suit yourself. Just asking you to lay it out for us (how you think your link refutes the article posted). You're being very vague. And to accuse me of being lazy is a bit over the top, don't you think? Are you being lazy by proving a link instead of explaining your argument?

Also explain what you think is missing from the Covid Tracking project that makes it numbers so wildly wrong.
Most recent data

Accusing him of being vague? Really? That’s a cop out. Also, yes it is lazy for you not to at least look at the link yourself. Not sure why you think it is over the top to point that out.

 

[Calminian]

I’ve already explained it twice to you but here we go again. This is from their site.



Then if you click on their link and look at each state, they tell you the data they have for hospitalizations, icu and ventilators. A lot of states have N/A in the field because they have no data. Sometimes that also means that the value is 0 for states where the case numbers are low. But for a lot of cases it is because the state does not publish that data.

For states that do have data, it is mostly only hospitalizations. So while that number is still well below the true number, it is probably the closest to being accurate of the 3 cummulative totals.

So then, you would agree, the article is generally correct. The numbers are falling far short of projections?

And therefore, we should probably give Trump some serious props. Correct?

 

[Gold Dragon]

So then, you would agree, the article is generally correct. The numbers are falling far short of projections?

And therefore, we should probably give Trump some serious props.

They are short because lots of data is missing, not because projections are wrong or things are going better than expected.

The article is a bold faced lie.

 

[Use of Time]

So then, you would agree, the article is generally correct. The numbers are falling far short of projections?

And therefore, we should probably give Trump some serious props. Correct?

And just like that we see the true priority of people like this. Not the virus, not the human beings, not the families, not the suffering, not the fear of losing a job but giving props to Trump.

 

[RighteousnessTemperance&]

He was told to go home and sutter in

I was afraid you were going to say that. Insane. New Jersey has access to at least 10k ventilators warehoused by New York for a super increase that may never come. No doubt they will try to blame it on the couple.

 

[RighteousnessTemperance&]

You are too lazy to click on a link and look?

It lists all the states and the ones that don’t provide info for that field have N/A on them. Just going though the first few letters of the alphabet, it is maybe about a 1/3 of states that publish some data and most of those it is only hospitalizations. You can have a look for yourself.

Edit: it is more like 1/2 of the states have no data. Notably Michigan and New Jersey.

Then how does its data support anything other than an agenda?

California
California has shown a huge number of pending tests. The state has been inconsistent in its timing of reporting, so we used faster updating sources until 4/1, when we standardized on California's new data dashboards. This led to a drop in cases and deaths, as the state's data lags some other sources. We assume that "tests conducted" = "people tested." Negatives and pending from California state 3/31 update. Hospitalization data from 4/1 Newsom press conference.​

 

[Calminian]

...The article is a bold faced lie.

Not following. So you're saying you know for certain the the projections are correct?

 

[Gold Dragon]

Not following. So you're saying you know for certain the the projections are correct?

I know for certain that these totals based on incomplete data doesn’t tell us anything about how accurate or inaccurate the projections are.

It is like taking data from 15 states and saying that Trump will lose an election from that sample because it is lower than his projected total electoral votes. It is a nonsensical statement.

 

[Calminian]

I know for certain that these totals based on incomplete data doesn’t tell us anything about how accurate or inaccurate the projections are.

It is like taking data from 15 states and saying that Trump will lose an election from that sample because it is lower than his projected total electoral votes. It is a nonsensical statement.

Okay, got it. So, if you are telling the truth, then in a few days this should start all adding up to the projections.

 

[Gold Dragon]

Okay, got it. So, if you are telling the truth, then in a few days this should start all adding up to the projections.

If you can get all 50 states to firstly collect the data for hospitalizations, icu and ventilators and then report that data in a timely manner, then yes. At least it will give us a reasonable idea if the models were under or overestimating and a rough idea of how off they were. All models are best guesses so it will never be exact but the best models based on good data are reasonably close.

But getting incomplete late data is what we normally get around 99% of the time in the world of medical data collection. That doesn’t mean the data is useless. It just means you need to consider and account for (sometimes with estimates and more models) the missing data.

 

[RighteousnessTemperance&]

I know for certain that these totals based on incomplete data doesn’t tell us anything about how accurate or inaccurate the projections are.

All of this leads me to question what data we are actually looking at in any of these reports. What we need are not merely reported values, but values posted according to the date the data was actually collected.

For example, someone is tested and is found positive (or negative). The results may have taken days with more time elapsed before finally being reported.

Are they reporting the data according the the date the test was done, according to the date the results came back, or the date the results are actually posted? For a true picture, we need the former. Of course, this would mean that the "history" will be constantly changing, but would give a truer picture.

 

[Gold Dragon]

All of this leads me to question what data we are actually looking at in any of these reports.

Deaths are easily the most reliable data point and all states are reporting that because it is the most obvious. It is hard to miss a death and covid19 deaths do follow a pattern. All states seem to be reporting positive tests in a timely manner. Negative tests and hospitalization rates seem to be reported by a majority of states. Icu and ventilator rates are very rarely reported.

Timing is often variable with different time zones and different states using different times as their cutoffs for that day. In the end it all averages out.

Yes processing time for tests are variable state by state and day by day. Again it all averages out in the long run.

Results are assigned to the day the result is received by the public health unit of the state. It is impractical to adjust historic data to when it was tested.

There are always data lags. The positive tests you are getting today were infected about a week before that test result comes in. The deaths you are getting today, tested positive about 2 weeks before and were first infected a week before that.

 

[church mouse guy]

The models may be off. Bill Gates seems to think that they are. We were supposed to have 165,000 hospitalized by now but we only have 20,000 or so with 9,500 dead or about 10 to a million here in Ohio, Kentucky, and Indiana.

Subways, elevators, and crowded neighborhoods are the breeding grounds. Taiwan was prepared and had masks for everyone--the CDC was not prepared at all and we are scrambling for masks.