So Far the Navy Hospital Ships Have Treated 18 Patients

[Scott Downey]

Not following. So you're saying you know for certain the the projections are correct?

We can know for certain the death numbers are overstated due to the CDC telling doctors to list all causes of deaths as due to CoronaVirus if suspected without proof required, that would include things like normal flu virus which kills tens of thousands. Lumping it all under coronavirus is an attempt to cover and make the lockdowns seem appropriate.

 

[KenH]

We can know for certain the death numbers are overstated due to the CDC telling doctors to list all causes of deaths as due to CoronaVirus if suspected without proof required, that would include things like normal flu virus which kills tens of thousands.

Yep. I read about that, too. Flu reports have been on a sudden rapid decline while the COVID-19 numbers have been rising. Coincidence?

 

[Scott Downey]

Yep. I read about that, too. Flu reports have been on a sudden rapid decline while the COVID-19 numbers have been rising. Coincidence?

They are trying to make their lockdown actions seem acceptable, but they have consistently overestimated the severity of this virus, often by factors of 10. So they are hoping to be able to attribute more deaths to covid. They also wont do widespread testing, they prefer the unknown and fear they can cause for some reason. Without knowing the true infection rate we have no clue about the death rate. I have read the infection rate may be 50 times what the numbers say. And 50% have no symptoms.

 

[Gold Dragon]

Yep. I read about that, too. Flu reports have been on a sudden rapid decline while the COVID-19 numbers have been rising. Coincidence?

guess what normally happens to flu rates by April.

The Flu Season | CDC
Weekly U.S. Influenza Surveillance Report (FluView)

 

[Calminian]

.....That doesn’t mean the data is useless. .....

Boy it sure seems that way, the way you describe it. and now....



Official IMHE Model for Coronavirus Used by CDC Just Cut Their Numbers by Half!… They’re Making It Up As they Go Along!

I think we have some light at the end of the tunnel that's going to come quicker than anyone imagined.

 

[Calminian]

We can know for certain the death numbers are overstated due to the CDC telling doctors to list all causes of deaths as due to CoronaVirus if suspected without proof required, that would include things like normal flu virus which kills tens of thousands. Lumping it all under coronavirus is an attempt to cover and make the lockdowns seem appropriate.

I don't have any doubt this is a very infectious virus, more so than most in history. I also know the devil wants excess hysteria. Trying to find that middle ground truth is the hard part in all this.

We also have to figure in the fact that we have a good capable president for the first time in a couple decades.

 

[Gold Dragon]

Boy it sure seems that way, the way you describe it. and now....



Official IMHE Model for Coronavirus Used by CDC Just Cut Their Numbers by Half!… They’re Making It Up As they Go Along!

I think we have some light at the end of the tunnel that's going to come quicker than anyone imagined.

Or you could just read the IMHE page where they tell you exactly why they updated the model.

COVID-19 Estimation Updates

The main reasons are
1. Italy and Spain looking like they are peaking which gives more accuracy to when they project the US will peak
2. Giving different weights to different social distancing measures (before they were all given equal weight)
3. Changing the way they calculate uncertainty for distant future projections
4. More data from states where their case numbers were really low

This is actually the 5th update to their model. They have documentation of the other updates at the bottom of the page. Modelling is something that constantly changes as more data comes in. And as we see the effects of different social distancing policies, it will also be reflected in the modelling.

For the hospital utilization data, the old model was based on the CDC report for hospital use back in mid March for the whole country. The new model is based on more up to date state specific data for hospital use. This is probably the main reason for the large change in hospital use projections.

Over the last few days, we have been able to incorporate data sources, including data provided by state governments, on a substantially larger sample: 16,352 hospital admissions and 2,908 deaths related to COVID-19. This allowed us to estimate state-specific ratios where data were available on at least 50 deaths from COVID-19, using random-effects meta-analysis.

Our estimates released today use the state-specific ratios noted below and for those states without data, the pooled ratio of 7.1 hospitalizations per death (95% CI 4.0 to 12.7). These lower ratios of admissions to deaths result in predicted peak hospital resource use – total beds, ICU beds, and invasive ventilators – that is lower than previously estimated.

 

[Calminian]

Or you could just read the IMHE page where they tell you exactly why they updated the model.

COVID-19 Estimation Updates

The main reasons are
1. Italy and Spain looking like they are peaking which gives more accuracy to when they project the US will peak
2. Giving different weights to different social distancing measures (before they were all given equal weight)
3. Changing the way they calculate uncertainty for distant future projections
4. More data from states where their case numbers were really low

This is actually the 5th update to their model. They have documentation of the other updates at the bottom of the page. Modelling is something that constantly changes as more data comes in. And as we see the effects of different social distancing policies, it will also be reflected in the modelling.

For the hospital utilization data, the old model was based on the CDC report for hospital use back in mid March for the whole country. The new model is based on more up to date state specific data for hospital use.

I think what people are critical about is the fact that they didn't give a heads up that these number are likely highly inaccurate.

But I also understand the thinking. Give the worse scenario, hope for the best. Then fact in Trump, which is the X factor, and you see what we're seeing, drastic improvement.

 

[Gold Dragon]

I think what people are critical about is the fact that they didn't give a heads up that these number are likely highly inaccurate.

But I also understand the thinking. Give the worse scenario, hope for the best. Then fact in Trump, which is the X factor, and you see what we're seeing, drastic improvement.

Models always have a range of error built into them. The less data you start with and further out you are predicting, the greater the error.

But as you get more data you get better and better predictions, especially for values not too far into the future.

 

[Calminian]

Models always have a range of error built into them. The less data you start with and further out you are predicting, the greater the error.

But as you get more data you get better and better predictions, especially for values not too far into the future.

Right. But what about what I said? You just keep repeating what everyone now knows.

 

[church mouse guy]

They said that on the 4th we'd need 165,000 hospital beds--we needed about 20,000 so they were only off by a factor of 8.

 

[Calminian]

and now this.

CUOMO: ‘WE DON’T NEED ANY ADDITIONAL VENTILATORS’…

It's getting interesting. I have a feeling Trump's going to unlock the country mid April.

 

[Gold Dragon]

Right. But what about what I said? You just keep repeating what everyone now knows.

I would say most people know that all modeling and projection has error built into it and improves with better data. But this appears to be a new idea to you.

 

[Gold Dragon]

and now this.

CUOMO: ‘WE DON’T NEED ANY ADDITIONAL VENTILATORS’…

It's getting interesting. I have a feeling Trump's going to unlock the country mid April.

the main reason is this

On Saturday, Cuomo reported that China had donated 1,000 machines to New York, thanks to foundations set up by Alibaba founders Jack Ma and Joseph Tsai.

 

[Calminian]

Also.

3 Weeks Ago Newsom Said 25.5 Million People in California Would be Infected with Coronavirus Over 8-Week Period – Actual Number Today? … 15,247

That's either very shoddy hysterical projections from experts or the Trump effect. Likely a little of both.

 

[KenH]

Two things:

1. I am glad that reality is showing the models to have been too pessimistic.

2. Causing people to panic and to think this will be apocalyptic is never acceptable.

 

[Calminian]

I would say most people know that all modeling and projection has error built into it and improves with better data. But this appears to be a new idea to you.

Most people know now that we've gone though this. But the "experts" should have at least known and trumpeted this fact in stead of causing hysteria. You should have known and been saying this weeks ago.

 

[Gold Dragon]

Most people know now that we've gone though this. But the "experts" should have at least known and trumpeted this fact in stead of causing hysteria. You should have known and been saying this weeks ago.

The previous models were based on the best available data at that time. When you have better data, you can update the model and get better projections. That is how modelling works. You don’t fudge data to make it look better than the data tells you just because of politics. That is how you get even more inaccurate models.

 

[Calminian]

The previous models were based on the best available data at that time. When you have better data, you can update the model and get better projections. That is how modelling works. You don’t fudge data to make it look better than the data tells you just because of politics. That is how you get even more inaccurate models.

And still ignoring my point. You're just like the rest of the so-called "experts." Can't even respond directly.

 

[Gold Dragon]

Two things:

1. I am glad that reality is showing the models to have been too pessimistic.

2. Causing people to panic and to think this will be apocalyptic is never acceptable.

Just because the numbers are better than before, doesn’t mean things are actually looking good for the US. These are still really big disaster type numbers we are talking about.

At the same time panic is unnecessary. It is sober reality that there is a really big challenge ahead to battle this disease as a country as quickly as possible so that the economy and life can get closer to normal. Downplaying the severity and having people minimize their social distancing practices or lifting them too quickly will cause those curves to be adjusted the other direction.