Stable Genius Once Again Picking Winners and Losers

[InTheLight]

Stocks fell on Thursday after President Donald Trump said the U.S. will implement tariffs on steel and aluminum imports next week.

The Dow Jones industrial average traded 358 points lower after rising more than 150 points earlier in the day. The 30-stock index fell as much as 586 points.

The S&P 500 declined 1.1 percent — erasing its year-to-date gains — with industrials as the worst-performing sector. It also briefly broke below its 100-day moving average, a key technical level. The Nasdaq composite fell 1 percent and dipped below its 50-day moving average.

The U.S. will set tariffs of 25 percent for steel and 10 percent for aluminum, the president said.
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So trucks and autos will cost more, aircraft will cost more, heavy equipment will cost more (just in time for infrastructure rebuild) and the $700B the defense industry is getting over the next two years won't go as far as it would have yesterday. Meanwhile, get ready for retaliation from the targeted countries, most likely on farm products and foodstuffs.

Then, when the tariffs are removed, steel and aluminum prices will plummet while domestic steel producers go out of business.

 

[thatbrian]

Trump is correct on this one.

 

[InTheLight]

Trump is correct on this one.

Knew this was coming. Here's the other defenses we will here about this maneuver.

• Trump knows what he is doing.
• I trust him to have a trick up his sleeve where this will work out for the better.
• He's a brilliant businessman and has an end game that will make us winners.
• Other countries are afraid to retaliate with tariffs on our products.

 

[Reynolds]

Stocks fell on Thursday after President Donald Trump said the U.S. will implement tariffs on steel and aluminum imports next week.

The Dow Jones industrial average traded 358 points lower after rising more than 150 points earlier in the day. The 30-stock index fell as much as 586 points.

The S&P 500 declined 1.1 percent — erasing its year-to-date gains — with industrials as the worst-performing sector. It also briefly broke below its 100-day moving average, a key technical level. The Nasdaq composite fell 1 percent and dipped below its 50-day moving average.

The U.S. will set tariffs of 25 percent for steel and 10 percent for aluminum, the president said.
------------

So trucks and autos will cost more, aircraft will cost more, heavy equipment will cost more (just in time for infrastructure rebuild) and the $700B the defense industry is getting over the next two years won't go as far as it would have yesterday. Meanwhile, get ready for retaliation from the targeted countries, most likely on farm products and foodstuffs.

Then, when the tariffs are removed, steel and aluminum prices will plummet while domestic steel producers go out of business.

That's good. I hate Chinese steel.

 

[Reynolds]

Knew this was coming. Here's the other defenses we will here about this maneuver.

• Trump knows what he is doing.
• I trust him to have a trick up his sleeve where this will work out for the better.
• He's a brilliant businessman and has an end game that will make us winners.
• Other countries are afraid to retaliate with tariffs on our products.

How about the truth? They already have tariffs on our products.
You are missing it. Trump sees a looming military showdown. He is trying to gear our domestic manufacturing back to the point we would need to domestically sustain ourselves during wartime. My theory anyway.

 

[InTheLight]

How about the truth? They already have tariffs on our products.

Yes, yes they do, but they will "retaliate" with new tariffs. Retaliate: make an attack or assault in return for a similar attack.

You are missing it. Trump sees a looming military showdown. He is trying to gear our domestic manufacturing back to the point we would need to domestically sustain ourselves during wartime. My theory anyway.

You seem to be saying if we were to go to war you are worried that China and other nations would embargo steel and aluminum and we would be left to fend for ourselves.

So, Trump's going to preempt any embargo and limit our supply to steel and aluminum to (mostly) domestic sources. Wouldn't a better strategy be to buy up as much foreign steel and aluminum as you can stand, then put tariffs on while you build your arsenal?

 

[Reynolds]

Yes, yes they do, but they will "retaliate" with new tariffs. Retaliate: make an attack or assault in return for a similar attack.



You seem to be saying if we were to go to war you are worried that China and other nations would embargo steel and aluminum and we would be left to fend for ourselves.

So, Trump's going to preempt any embargo and limit our supply to steel and aluminum to (mostly) domestic sources. Wouldn't a better strategy be to buy up as much foreign steel and aluminum as you can stand, then put tariffs on while you build your arsenal?

We need to gear up our entire industry. From mining all the way to finished product. We have plenty of raw material in the ground.

 

[KenH]

"But the bottom line is that once Trump opens Pandora’s Box by rationalizing protectionism as a national security imperative, the durability of the rules based trading system will be tested like never before, with global economic security hanging in the balance."

Trump’s Steel and Aluminum Tariffs Will Open Pandora’s Box

 

[Reynolds]

"But the bottom line is that once Trump opens Pandora’s Box by rationalizing protectionism as a national security imperative, the durability of the rules based trading system will be tested like never before, with global economic security hanging in the balance."

Trump’s Steel and Aluminum Tariffs Will Open Pandora’s Box

I am an isolationalist so open it up.

 

[ChrisTheSaved]

I am an isolationalist so open it up.

Amen. Why do people act as if talking care of Americans and placing us first is a bad thing? They dump products on us at a loss with almost no cost that drives our companies out of business. Then when we have no capabilities anymore they ramp prices up.

 

[KenH]

“The result was disaster. In 1929, the U.S. exported $5.24 billion worth of goods. In 1933, exports were a mere $1.68 billion. If inflation is factored in, that was less than what the country had exported in 1896. World trade declined by two-thirds between 1929 and 1934, as country after country raised tariffs. The stock market, which had recovered about a third of what it had lost in the crash of 1929, began to sink again as soon as it became clear that Smoot-Hawley would pass. Bank failures began to multiply.

Thus, Smoot-Hawley was one of the prime reasons that a stock market crash and an ordinary recession turned into the calamity of the Great Depression.”

Smoot-Hawley Tariff: A Bad Law, Badly Timed

 

[ChrisTheSaved]

“The result was disaster. In 1929, the U.S. exported $5.24 billion worth of goods. In 1933, exports were a mere $1.68 billion. If inflation is factored in, that was less than what the country had exported in 1896. World trade declined by two-thirds between 1929 and 1934, as country after country raised tariffs. The stock market, which had recovered about a third of what it had lost in the crash of 1929, began to sink again as soon as it became clear that Smoot-Hawley would pass. Bank failures began to multiply.

Thus, Smoot-Hawley was one of the prime reasons that a stock market crash and an ordinary recession turned into the calamity of the Great Depression.”

Smoot-Hawley Tariff: A Bad Law, Badly Timed

That was a only a very small part of it. He said he was going to do this, and it needs to be done. What you guys are saying it's ok for everyone to charge Americans high tariffs, but we can't charge them...that's bad.

 

[InTheLight]

Amen. Why do people act as if talking care of Americans and placing us first is a bad thing? They dump products on us at a loss with almost no cost that drives our companies out of business. Then when we have no capabilities anymore they ramp prices up.

Steel and aluminum is not a product. It is a commodity. Low commodity prices, such as steel, has probably kept a lot a American manufacturers competitive in the world marketplace.

Why should US steel and aluminum producers get singled out for special treatment? They are the winners in Trump's scheme. Meanwhile every one else loses due to higher costs of products manufactured from US produced steel. Not to mention the hit everyone's 401(k) took today with the stock market decline.

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk

 

[KenH]

We may have to learn the lessons of the 1930s all over again if wiser heads do not prevail.

 

[ChrisTheSaved]

Steel and aluminum is not a product. It is a commodity. Low commodity prices, such as steel, has probably kept a lot a American manufacturers competitive in the world marketplace.

Why should US steel and aluminum producers get singled out for special treatment? They are the winners in Trump's scheme. Meanwhile every one else loses due to higher costs of products manufactured from US produced steel. Not to mention the hit everyone's 401(k) took today with the stock market decline.

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk

Decline? Really? Technically yes, but in reality that was not much.

 

[KenH]

I hate Chinese steel.

Our largest source of imported steel is Canada. China is not even in the top 10.

 

[KenH]

“Canada and Brazil are likely to bear the brunt of any tariffs on steel imposed by President Donald Trump, according to a 2017 report from the U.S. Department of Commerce.

According to the department's International Trade Administration and IHS Global Trade, Canadian and Brazilian steel comprised 16 percent and 13 percent of U.S. steel imports as of September 2017. China, frequently criticized politically for dumping cheap steel on trade partners, is not one of the top 10 importers of steel to the U.S. ...

Top foreign sources of aluminum included Canada (56 percent), Russia (8 percent) and the United Arab Emirates (7 percent) between 2013 and 2016, according to the United States Geological Survey.”

Canada, Brazil — but not China — will be hit hardest by Trump's steel tariffs

 

[InTheLight]

Why should US steel and aluminum producers get singled out for special treatment? They are the winners in Trump's scheme.

Let's see... Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio... three swing states that have manufacturers/producers that use a lot of steel. The mid term elections are coming, as is the 2020 presidential election. Hmm..



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[Reynolds]

Steel and aluminum is not a product. It is a commodity. Low commodity prices, such as steel, has probably kept a lot a American manufacturers competitive in the world marketplace.

Why should US steel and aluminum producers get singled out for special treatment? They are the winners in Trump's scheme. Meanwhile every one else loses due to higher costs of products manufactured from US produced steel. Not to mention the hit everyone's 401(k) took today with the stock market decline.

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk

Manufactured steel and Aluminum is a product. Ore is a commodity. Steel and AL in ingot form might be a commodity, but as an I beam etc it is a product.

 

[Reynolds]

Our largest source of imported steel is Canada. China is not even in the top 10.

The only steel I can even buy for my welding shop is Chinese. Its all the there suppliers that service this area have.