Stock Market?

[Reynolds]

This is kind of political.
What are your thoughts on the market? Has it reached bottom and on way back up, or will it drop more?

 

[JonC]

I think it is on the way back up. Part of the reason us the unemployment situation. It is not like a depression because it is largely temporary (there is an end in sight). I do not think we will recover quickly, though.

 

[Reynolds]

I think it is on the way back up. Part of the reason us the unemployment situation. It is not like a depression because it is largely temporary (there is an end in sight). I do not think we will recover quickly, though.

I dumped stock before the crash and am trying to time re-entry. I am thinking the time is probably right.

 

[HatedByAll]

In January or so the market moved up higher than it could sustain. It would have fallen sooner or later whether the virus happened or not. Right now, the market is where it should have been all the time.

 

[InTheLight]

I believe it bottomed out in mid-March. I've been buying on dips since then. I figure there will be a couple more days of losses of 2% - 3% during mostly upward movement that will provide buying opportunities. The Fed's policy seems to be giving the market confidence.

As the new Covid-19 cases and number of deaths drop off, the market will continue to rise. I think by September we should be on a good roll. And the day the vaccine is announced, you do not want to be out of the market.



Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk

 

[KenH]

The S&P 500 is only about 3-4% away from closing above its 200 day moving average. I think if it can close above it and not fall back that it could be in a good position to eventually launch into another leg up as the economy gains steam coming out of the government-induced shutdown.

 

[church mouse guy]

Too many jobs are lost forever and the re-opening has been bungled and delayed by too many governors. People with means should be able to buy properties dirt cheap. The November election will continue the gridlock in government as suburban white women want Democrat big government even with high taxes.

 

[InTheLight]

I believe it bottomed out in mid-March. I've been buying on dips since then. I figure there will be a couple more days of losses of 2% - 3% during mostly upward movement that will provide buying opportunities. The Fed's policy seems to be giving the market confidence.

Bought a little bit more today. Probably should have waited to see what happens tomorrow, but 6 months from now I will look like a genius.

 

[Agent47]

I follow NASDAQ closely and I think you can expect lots of seesaw movements as we process Covid-19 news.

Reopening will pump it up as new cases and deaths jolt it back down.

I think economic recovery will take many years.

The post 911 airline revenues took about seven years after to get back.

 

[InTheLight]

I think economic recovery will take many years.

I think by Christmastime we will be almost fully recovered.

The post 911 airline revenues took about seven years after to get back.

Yeah, great example. Terrorists hijack four planes and fly them into buildings. I can't imagine why people would be reluctant to get on a plane after that.

Not only that, but airline revenues are not the definitive example of economic health.

 

[Agent47]

Not only that, but airline revenues are not the definitive example of economic health.

911 disrupted industries. Airline revenues is an indication of the performance of that industry, which is a subset of the whole economy.

V-shaped recovery is wishful thinking

 

[777]

LOL ^

Dow closes 800 points higher after jobs report shows surprise jump in payrolls, fall in unemployment rate

try try again

 

[Agent47]

LOL ^

Dow closes 800 points higher after jobs report shows surprise jump in payrolls, fall in unemployment rate

try try again

I saw that. Less worse than expected data does that.

 

[Reynolds]

I saw that. Less worse than expected data does that.

You want to see the economy crash.

 

[Agent47]

You want to see the economy crash.

I want facts, not wishful thinking

 

[Reynolds]

I want facts, not wishful thinking

You want subversive thinking.

 

[Agent47]

You want subversive thinking.

facts.

Keep emotions to yourself

 

[Agent47]

The unemployment rate figure was understated due to a “miscalculation error” and that’s what led to the rally.


The May jobs report ‘misclassification error’ explained

 

[Reynolds]

facts.

Keep emotions to yourself

Fact. If your name is not red, I dont care what you say.

 

[Agent47]

There are three or four factors that have led the stock rallies.

1. the US-China trade pact/deal. It comes in phases and phase one is almost in shambles. The deal is yet to translate into trade volumes and is increasingly less likely to given the Chinese Virus tiff. the Trade volumes are nowhere near the pre-deal levels.

2. Rona vaccine. Signs of a vaccine in sight (was it Moderna?) gave all stocks another boost but the data more or less fudged and the owners of Moderna were not too keen on holding their stocks which tells you all you need to know. We are nowhere near a Rona vaccine.

3. The Rona stimulus package- there are illusions of injection of trillions but reality is very few billions were actually injected. Treasury promised to buy assets and companies issued more bonds on the back of this renewed confidence. That’s no actual growth

4. The May unemployment report. We are learning of “miscalculation errors” on this. Nothing more to add on this.

Recovery won’t be instant. Unemployment won’t just go back to pre-Rona levels in a year or even two. So many shuttered and disrupted businesses will never come back.

Optimism is good,but hope is not exactly a good strategy. You need realism. It’s a campaign year, they promise heaven, exaggerate and straight out spew lies. There will be lots of alternative facts,but you can’t rig economy. I’d urge everyone to think beyond Trump tweets. He already did victory laps on the fuzzy unemployment data