The pie is falling! 1st Qtr statistical revisions show economy in freefall?

[thisnumbersdisconnected]

Fox News: Economy in freefall? 1Q revision shows shrinkage of 2.9%http://www.foxnews.com/us/2014/06/25/economy-in-freefall-1q-revision-shows-shrinkage-2/http://www.foxnews.com/us/2014/06/25/economy-in-freefall-1q-revision-shows-shrinkage-2/

America's economy shrank at a drastic 2.9 percent annual rate in the first quarter, a far more alarming picture than ones painted in two previous government estimates -- including one that actually claimed modest growth.

The new figure released Wednesday by the Commerce Department is nearly three times lower than last month's preliminary estimate of 1 percent shrinkage -- at the time the worst three-month performance since 2009 -- and far greater than the 0.1 percent growth estimate in April. The sluggish economy's woes have been widely attributed to an unusually cold winter, but the latest figure -- the biggest difference between second and third estimates since 1976 -- could indicate far greater problems.
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The negative 2.9 percent figure is nearly three times lower than the preliminary estimate of 1 percent released last month, and marks the worst performance for a three-month period since 2009. A still earlier initial estimate, in April, predicted growth of .1 percent for the quarter. The wide gap between estimates was problematic to many economists.

"That disparity really calls into question the accuracy of the measurement," noted [economist Peter] Morici.

More evidence this administration lies, obfuscates and manipulates statistics to its own advantage. They even "downplayed" the revised numbers this morning, claiming the economy is still robust, healthy and primed for growth.

Unlike the VA, IRS, Benghazi, Fast & Furious, etc., etc., etc., however, the truth has to come out before the economists figure out how bogus the first numbers really were.

 

[InTheLight]

More evidence this administration lies, obfuscates and manipulates statistics to its own advantage.

It's not lying. It was estimated and then revised. It happens every quarter. Funny how it seems the estimates are ALWAYS adjusted downward though...:laugh:

The weather in the first quarter was brutal and really put a damper on consumer spending.

They even "downplayed" the revised numbers this morning, claiming the economy is still robust, healthy and primed for growth.

The economy is primed for growth. There are numerous leading indicators like housing starts, housing sales, auto sales, consumer confidence, etc. that point to growth.

 

[thisnumbersdisconnected]

 

[InTheLight]

Mighty fine tasting Kool Aid, it is. S&P 500 is up 23% over past 12 months. It should hit 2,000 before the end of the year. I feel sorry for all the bears and gold bugs that have sat out the 5 year long bull market. Missed out on some real wealth building sitting on the sidelines carping about the lying government statistics and gloom and dooming it.

 

[Don]

TND - it's a simple matter of "Field of Dreams" syndrome: "if we say it, it'll happen."

 

[Rolfe]

TND - it's a simple matter of "Field of Dreams" syndrome: "if we say it, it'll happen."

And when it does not materialize, the press release key word is "unexpected".

 

[thisnumbersdisconnected]

Mighty fine tasting Kool Aid, it is. S&P 500 is up 23% over past 12 months. It should hit 2,000 before the end of the year. I feel sorry for all the bears and gold bugs that have sat out the 5 year long bull market. Missed out on some real wealth building sitting on the sidelines carping about the lying government statistics and gloom and dooming it.

You and your graph seem to forget, the only reason the markets are up is because of quantitative easement, which is coming to and end. You might want to see what the markets have done in the last 24 hours. That's proof the government is supporting the markets. There is no earthly reason, in the face of a revised 3% shrinkage of the economy, for the Dow to be up over 20 points, but it is.

The markets and the housing industry surges are frauds. The government is spending our money to make them happen. Your S&P index is a lie, just like the Dow and the NASDAQ.

 

[InTheLight]

You and your graph seem to forget, the only reason the markets are up is because of quantitative easement, which is coming to and end. You might want to see what the markets have done in the last 24 hours. That's proof the government is supporting the markets. There is no earthly reason, in the face of a revised 3% shrinkage of the economy, for the Dow to be up over 20 points, but it is.

The Dow and S&P 500 reacts to current events and expected future events. The lousy first quarter is already baked into indexes weeks ago. Also, every time the quantitative easing is trimmed back--it's been cut in half in the past 5 months--the market goes up. You need to stop drinking the quantitative easing propping up the market Kool Aid.

The markets and the housing industry surges are frauds. The government is spending our money to make them happen. Your S&P index is a lie, just like the Dow and the NASDAQ.

Housing starts and new housing construction keeps going up as 30 year mortgage rates increase. Auto sales are increasing. This is not made up. This is because of consumer confidence which is also up. This is not a strong economy, but it's not about to crash, and it's not a fake recovery. It's just been so slooooowww...

 

[Revmitchell]

You and your graph seem to forget, the only reason the markets are up is because of quantitative easement, which is coming to and end. You might want to see what the markets have done in the last 24 hours. That's proof the government is supporting the markets. There is no earthly reason, in the face of a revised 3% shrinkage of the economy, for the Dow to be up over 20 points, but it is.

The markets and the housing industry surges are frauds. The government is spending our money to make them happen. Your S&P index is a lie, just like the Dow and the NASDAQ.

Yep.........................

 

[InTheLight]

Yep.........................

Some people should observe what happens and adjust their thinking to the facts rather than maintain their thinking and try to make the facts fit.

 

[thisnumbersdisconnected]

The Dow and S&P 500 reacts to current events and expected future events. The lousy first quarter is already baked into indexes weeks ago.

Please tell me how that is possible since the indexes were not adjusted until yesterday???

Also, every time the quantitative easing is trimmed back--it's been cut in half in the past 5 months--the market goes up.

Nonsense. The end of quantitative easing has been announced repeatedly over the last five years, but the Fed is like a heroin addict -- it can't stay away from the stuff. The enormous amounts of cash pouring out of the Treasury into the market would stagger you, and just because its "been cut in half" means nothing. It won't mean anything until its totally ended, and you're kidding yourself if you believe anything else.

Housing starts and new housing construction keeps going up as 30 year mortgage rates increase.

You're daft, ITL. The 30-year mortgage rate is at a 20-year low!!! I'm in the business -- or perhaps you've forgotten I build houses as well as counsel addicts, both being my income but the latter also being my ministry.

The only reason housing starts are up is because mortgage rates have stabilized at a low, low interest rate. Some lenders are quoting 3.88% today. I just checked.

Why are they stabilized? Because Fannie and Freddie are trying a new tack. Instead of buying bad loans, they're writing their own. The private lenders are staying low to compete, even though privately they know this is another balloon inflating. It's going to blow big either way, just like six years ago.

 

[InTheLight]

What are you nay-sayers going to post when the 2nd quarter GDP numbers are posted and it's above 3%? Then what are you going to post when they are revised upwards six weeks later to 3.3%?

Wait, let me guess--It's a lie.

 

[thisnumbersdisconnected]

What are you nay-sayers going to post when the 2nd quarter GDP numbers are posted and it's above 3%?

That's not an issue we'll have to face, since the only way those numbers will be released is through more lies of this corrupt administration. Then they'll make "statistical adjustments" just like they did yesterday.

And if that's your "refutation" of my post, I'll take it as your unconditional surrender.

 

[Revmitchell]

Doesn't have enything to do with the weather.

 

[InTheLight]

Please tell me how that is possible since the indexes were not adjusted until yesterday???

Simple. Wall Street looks at the lousy results when they were first reported. They also have other information that leads them to believe it will be downgraded at a later date and they price that into the market. [Or, if you like, they know Obama is lying and it's worse than the numbers he released.] Then when the EXPECTED downgrade happens yesterday, they just look at each other, shrug their shoulders, and say "told ya so."

Nonsense. The end of quantitative easing has been announced repeatedly over the last five years, but the Fed is like a heroin addict -- it can't stay away from the stuff. The enormous amounts of cash pouring out of the Treasury into the market would stagger you,

The enormous amounts going into the market would stagger you....Well, enlighten me--just how much is going into the markets? How much bond buying is the Fed doing relative to all bond buying? Please post the numbers.

You're daft, ITL. The 30-year mortgage rate is at a 20-year low!!! I'm in the business -- or perhaps you've forgotten I build houses as well as counsel addicts, both being my income but the latter also being my ministry.

The only reason housing starts are up is because mortgage rates have stabilized at a low, low interest rate. Some lenders are quoting 3.88% today. I just checked.

No, they were at a 20 year low last fall. (I'm talking about 30 fixed rate, the most popular mortgage.)They went up, then down and hit a near low again in May. They've been inching up since. Doesn't seem to faze anybody.

 

[Revmitchell]

What are you nay-sayers going to post when the 2nd quarter GDP numbers are posted and it's above 3%? Then what are you going to post when they are revised upwards six weeks later to 3.3%?

Wait, let me guess--It's a lie.

We are going to say that in 1985 although the winter was just as cold the GDP grew 4% first quarter.

 

[righteousdude2]

But, still ....

It's not lying. It was estimated and then revised. It happens every quarter. Funny how it seems the estimates are ALWAYS adjusted downward though...:laugh:

The weather in the first quarter was brutal and really put a damper on consumer spending.




The economy is primed for growth. There are numerous leading indicators like housing starts, housing sales, auto sales, consumer confidence, etc. that point to growth.

..... and I do mean to burst your bubble. Where I live in the land of fruit, nuts and flakes .... the economy is heralded as growing, but I know scores of people who are now on welfare because they could not find employment to support their families.

These are good Christian folks, families of faith, but they are unable to find employment, or if they are lucky to find a job, in or out of their career history, they are now underemployed, and some are too old to put together a string of full-time and part time jobs to make ends meet!

No, I do not see the economy getting better. It is all hype, and maybe even filled with propping up and intentional lies.

The government of this state is doing nothing to keep major jobs in the state, and every week we lose one more big empoyer, putting more people out of a job!

It is depressing! Maybe that's why they call it a "Depression?" :smilewinkgrin: I do not believe things are better.

Even being retired .... I'll have to say that every time the gas prices go up, so does the food and the utilities. I may get a measely raise in benefits yearly, but, it is eaten up by corporate greed and ever increasing inflation!

If things are truly better, it is only in the herts and minds of those spinning the messages coming out of DC!

 

[Crabtownboy]

What are you nay-sayers going to post when the 2nd quarter GDP numbers are posted and it's above 3%? Then what are you going to post when they are revised upwards six weeks later to 3.3%?

Wait, let me guess--It's a lie.

They will either remain silent, say it is a lie, or criticize Obama that the growth was not larger. You know they will never say anything good about him .... and we know why most of them will not do so.

 

[InTheLight]

We are going to say that in 1985 although the winter was just as cold the GDP grew 4% first quarter.

You can say that, but how do you know those numbers weren't a lie? Anyway, there are so many other dynamics at work comparing the economy in 1985 to 2014 based solely on the weather is silly. Also, some economists are predicting 4% growth for Q2.

 

[Revmitchell]

You can say that, but how do you know those numbers weren't a lie? Anyway, there are so many other dynamics at work comparing the economy in 1985 to 2014 based solely on the weather is silly. Also, some economists are predicting 4% growth for Q2.

Of course.................