Note this is more recent than your data. Conveniently, you posted after the one strong quarter.
U.S. economic growth in 2018 misses Trump's 3 percent target
U.S. economic growth in 2018 misses Trump's 3 percent target - Reuters
FEBRUARY 28, 2019
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. economy fell short of the Trump administration’s 3 percent annual growth target in 2018 despite $1.5 trillion in tax cuts and a government spending blitz, and economists say growth will only slow from here.
“
We are moving back to a sustainable growth pace that we experienced during most of the Obama years,” said Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors in Holland, Pennsylvania. “With the tax cut impacts largely done with, it is hard to see how growth can accelerate sharply.”
The fiscal stimulus is believed to have peaked sometime in the fourth quarter.
December economic data such as retail sales, exports, homebuilding and business spending on equipment weakened sharply.
In addition, most manufacturing measures softened in January and February, and motor vehicle demand has eased.
The labor market is also exhibiting signs of cooling, with a report from the Labor Department on Thursday showing the number of Americans receiving unemployment benefits rising to a 10-month high in the week ended Feb. 16.
“The first quarter won’t be this good,” said Paul Ashworth, chief economist at Capital Economics in Toronto. “As the stimulus fades and the lagged impact of past monetary tightening continues to feed through, we expect GDP growth to slow to 2.2 percent this year.”
The
trade deficit widened further as a combination of the U.S.-China trade dispute, strong dollar and weakening global demand restrained export growth. The trade tensions also led businesses to hoard imports.
The trade shortfall subtracted 0.22 percentage point from fourth-quarter GDP growth after slicing off 2 percentage points in the July-September period. With consumer spending slowing, some of the imports ended up in warehouses, accelerating the pace of inventory accumulation.
Inventories increased at a $97.1 billion rate in the fourth quarter after rising at an $89.8 billion pace in the July-September quarter. Inventory investment added 0.13 percentage point to GDP growth last quarter after contributing 2.33 percentage points in the prior period.
“There was a rapid buildup of inventories in the fourth quarter, so
inventories likely will be a headwind for growth in the future,” said Daniel Silver, an economist at JPMorgan in New York.
Residential construction contracted at a 3.5 percent rate, marking the fourth straight quarterly decline. Homebuilding has been weighed down by higher mortgage rates, land and labor shortages as well a tariffs on imported lumber.
Government investment increased at a 0.4 percent rate, the slowest since the third quarter of 2017.
Nondefense investment contracted at a 5.6 percent rate, the biggest decline in five years, likely reflecting the effects of the five-week government shutdown.