What's the worse case scenario if we don't raise the debt limit?

[freeatlast]

Please read my earlier post. I did this already. I am not going to break down every program, A: because its not necessary to show that the concept is plausible, and B: Because that would be a full time job. And I am not getting paid for that.

I did read it and they are incomplet and bogus numbers. We are adding to the debt 5 billion a day which is about 2 trillion a year. There is no way to cut 5 billion a day from the budget, much less cut the debt.

 

[Havensdad]

I did read it and they are incomplet and bogus numbers. We are adding to the debt 5 billion a day which is about 2 trillion a year. There is no way to cut 5 billion a day from the budget, much less cut the debt.

They are not bogus numbers. Yes it is possible. I presented real numbers, based on information straight from the Fed. You saying "Uh-uh!" and sticking your fingers in your ears, is not a refutation of my cold, hard facts.

The defense budget can be cut by half, simply by bringing our troops home. Social Security can be slashed by placing annual wage caps on recipients. Same with Medicare and Medicaid. There is close to 300 billion per year that is just outright wasted on silly garbage. Revenue can be increased by closing corporate tax loopholes, and instituting a 10 percent tariff on all imported goods. It can also be greatly increased by deporting illegal aliens aggressively, and doing away with welfare programs...which means more tax income.

The budget can be balanced, and the debt paid down.

 

[TomVols]

For those throwing around numbers, I have a simple question: are you considering Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid (but for the most part, consider only SS) as cash or accrual based accounting? Are you considering SS as a short-term liability or as a long-term liability?

Makes all the difference in the world. Our government does things with the books that Enron couldn't get away with, but yet we still buy it.

 

[freeatlast]

They are not bogus numbers. Yes it is possible. I presented real numbers, based on information straight from the Fed. You saying "Uh-uh!" and sticking your fingers in your ears, is not a refutation of my cold, hard facts.

The defense budget can be cut by half, simply by bringing our troops home. Social Security can be slashed by placing annual wage caps on recipients. Same with Medicare and Medicaid. There is close to 300 billion per year that is just outright wasted on silly garbage. Revenue can be increased by closing corporate tax loopholes, and instituting a 10 percent tariff on all imported goods. It can also be greatly increased by deporting illegal aliens aggressively, and doing away with welfare programs...which means more tax income.

The budget can be balanced, and the debt paid down.

First off SS is not part of the problem. It is self sustained (pay as we go) as there is 2.5 trillion in bonds waiting to be cashed in held in the fund making the fund solvent until around 2030 at which time the baby boomers will be dying off and the pay out will decrease. if we cut out Medicare and medicaid then the poor just have to go on another type of relief or die. Are you suggesting they die to help fix this mess. Even of the 723 billion on these programs in 2010 and that included also welfare and chips and disabled workers and it still leaves 1.277 trillion to cut.
As to SS that is off the table but even if it could be cut some how much? Certainly not 50%. There are not that many rich on the plan, not to mention they paid into it and it is their money. So most of the payments are to those who need it and many are just getting by. If you cut them then they just move over to some other government system unless you are suggesting like our president with his Obama care to let them die.

So lets say we cut the defense budget by 50%. First off we then bring the war to our home land. second In 2010 we spent 705 billion on military defense. That means 352.5 billion in savings if it was possible to bring the troops home and that leaves nearly a trillion. (.9245 billion) So with nearly trillion more to cut from the budget where do we go next?. Keep in mind when the troops come home there is no work so they have to go on relief or on the street which raises back up the costs to some degree.

The tax loopholes I agree needs to be dealt with, but that is just a drop in the bucket when we're talking 1 trillion left. Even if the government doubled the tax rates for business and done away with the tax breaks it would not even touch the amount left.
If you raise import duties we then have to deal with treaties we have signed and would be retaliated against and they raise theirs so our products cannot be sold outside the country and again we lose instead of gaining.
I understand you ideals and on the surface they sound nice, but they are flawed as the amount of debt makes it impossible to correct. It is not possible to cut enough and raise taxes enough to fix the problem without destroying the economy as fragile as it is and that would do the exactly same thing as pushing the can down the road.

 

[freeatlast]

For those throwing around numbers, I have a simple question: are you considering Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid (but for the most part, consider only SS) as cash or accrual based accounting? Are you considering SS as a short-term liability or as a long-term liability?

Makes all the difference in the world. Our government does things with the books that Enron couldn't get away with, but yet we still buy it.

SS should not be a consideration as it is self sustaining with a 2.5 trillion surplus at least oin the books.

 

[TomVols]

SS should not be a consideration as it is self sustaining with a 2.5 trillion surplus at least oin the books.

Fair point. But which books? Cash or accrual? Long-term or short-term?

 

[Havensdad]

First off SS is not part of the problem. It is self sustained (pay as we go) as there is 2.5 trillion in bonds waiting to be cashed in held in the fund making the fund solvent until around 2030 at which time the baby boomers will be dying off and the pay out will decrease.

Sorry but this is not the case. Also, there is no reason that we cannot cut off SS payout to those who are already making large sums of money. If you make over 200,000 per year, there is no reason, given our current fix, to send you a check. Cutting out SS checks to the wealthy would greatly reduce the load.

if we cut out Medicare and medicaid then the poor just have to go on another type of relief or die. Are you suggesting they die to help fix this mess. Even of the 723 billion on these programs in 2010 and that included also welfare and chips and disabled workers and it still leaves 1.277 trillion to cut.

Not so. We do not need to cut out medicare and Medicaid completely. But about 1 out of 10 medicare recipients are wealthy retirees. These people should be made to foot there own bill. Medicaid costs can be greatly increased by restructuring. Currently, people making 40,000 dollars per year, with 2 kids, qualify for FULL Medicaid benefits for their children (meaning NO out of pocket expenses!) Even a 10 dollar per month payment, per child, in such cases, would pull in an enormous amount of income.

As to SS that is off the table but even if it could be cut some how much? Certainly not 50%. There are not that many rich on the plan, not to mention they paid into it and it is their money. So most of the payments are to those who need it and many are just getting by. If you cut them then they just move over to some other government system unless you are suggesting like our president with his Obama care to let them die.

The costs could be cut by at least 10 percent, without hurting anyone. Either we all bite the bullet, or we all die together. Throwing up your hands and saying "Oh Well!" is certainly NOT the way to go.

So lets say we cut the defense budget by 50%. First off we then bring the war to our home land.

This is false. Having active troops on your home soil is a deterrent to people attacking you, not an encouragement.[/quote]

second In 2010 we spent 705 billion on military defense. That means 352.5 billion in savings if it was possible to bring the troops home and that leaves nearly a trillion. (.9245 billion) So with nearly trillion more to cut from the budget where do we go next?. Keep in mind when the troops come home there is no work so they have to go on relief or on the street which raises back up the costs to some degree.

Not so, on all counts. First, military defense was 895 billion, not 705. The yearly deficit is 1.27 trillion. It does not leave "nearly a trillion." 450 billion (1/2 the defense budget), 73 billion from SS, 80 billion from Medicaid/Medicare, leaves a deficit of just 660 billion.

Now, if you look at this break down of the federal budget...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/budget-2010/

You will see two categories that take up a huge portion of the remaining: "Other" Discretionary (520 billion), and "Other" mandatory (612 billion). The first contains absolutely insane items for everything like grants for seeing how much alcohol it takes to get a female co-ed drunk, to cowboy poetry festivals, and other pork projects. It can be cut by half, extremely easily. The second also contains an enormous amount of fat, which can be trimmed.

After trimming these, this leaves just over 200 billion dollars. This can be balanced by closing tax loopholes that corporations and CEO's exploit, imposing a 10 percent tariff on all imported goods, and deporting illegal aliens (thereby freeing up jobs that will be taken by tax paying Americans).

Another thing...put a cap on Federal employees salary not to exceed 100 thousand per year. There are people in the Obama administration that are making more than professional Football players. That is absolutely unconscionable.

The tax loopholes I agree needs to be dealt with, but that is just a drop in the bucket when we're talking 1 trillion left. Even if the government doubled the tax rates for business and done away with the tax breaks it would not even touch the amount left.

Please look at the figures above. I am not for raising taxes, BTW. That kills an economy.

If you raise import duties we then have to deal with treaties we have signed and would be retaliated against and they raise theirs so our products cannot be sold outside the country and again we lose instead of gaining.

Let them. We import FAR more than we export. Free trade agreements are STUPID for the person doing most of the importing! If they want to get into a tariff war, we can do that. It will hurt them more than us. We are the number one consumer on the planet. But they are too smart for that. They would just eat the 10 percent.

I understand you ideals and on the surface they sound nice, but they are flawed as the amount of debt makes it impossible to correct. It is not possible to cut enough and raise taxes enough to fix the problem without destroying the economy as fragile as it is and that would do the exactly same thing as pushing the can down the road.

They are not flawed, and it is not impossible, as has been shown. We HAVE to fix the problem. We need to just grit our teeth and do it. It is possible.

 

[Havensdad]

SS should not be a consideration as it is self sustaining with a 2.5 trillion surplus at least oin the books.

We have no choice at this point. We all suffer together a little, or the economy collapses and we all suffer a LOT (talking starvation here!).

 

[freeatlast]

Sorry but this is not the case. Also, there is no reason that we cannot cut off SS payout to those who are already making large sums of money. If you make over 200,000 per year, there is no reason, given our current fix, to send you a check. Cutting out SS checks to the wealthy would greatly reduce the load.



Not so. We do not need to cut out medicare and Medicaid completely. But about 1 out of 10 medicare recipients are wealthy retirees. These people should be made to foot there own bill. Medicaid costs can be greatly increased by restructuring. Currently, people making 40,000 dollars per year, with 2 kids, qualify for FULL Medicaid benefits for their children (meaning NO out of pocket expenses!) Even a 10 dollar per month payment, per child, in such cases, would pull in an enormous amount of income.



The costs could be cut by at least 10 percent, without hurting anyone. Either we all bite the bullet, or we all die together. Throwing up your hands and saying "Oh Well!" is certainly NOT the way to go.



This is false. Having active troops on your home soil is a deterrent to people attacking you, not an encouragement.

Not so, on all counts. First, military defense was 895 billion, not 705. The yearly deficit is 1.27 trillion. It does not leave "nearly a trillion." 450 billion (1/2 the defense budget), 73 billion from SS, 80 billion from Medicaid/Medicare, leaves a deficit of just 660 billion.

Now, if you look at this break down of the federal budget...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/budget-2010/

You will see two categories that take up a huge portion of the remaining: "Other" Discretionary (520 billion), and "Other" mandatory (612 billion). The first contains absolutely insane items for everything like grants for seeing how much alcohol it takes to get a female co-ed drunk, to cowboy poetry festivals, and other pork projects. It can be cut by half, extremely easily. The second also contains an enormous amount of fat, which can be trimmed.

After trimming these, this leaves just over 200 billion dollars. This can be balanced by closing tax loopholes that corporations and CEO's exploit, imposing a 10 percent tariff on all imported goods, and deporting illegal aliens (thereby freeing up jobs that will be taken by tax paying Americans).

Another thing...put a cap on Federal employees salary not to exceed 100 thousand per year. There are people in the Obama administration that are making more than professional Football players. That is absolutely unconscionable.



Please look at the figures above. I am not for raising taxes, BTW. That kills an economy.



Let them. We import FAR more than we export. Free trade agreements are STUPID for the person doing most of the importing! If they want to get into a tariff war, we can do that. It will hurt them more than us. We are the number one consumer on the planet. But they are too smart for that. They would just eat the 10 percent.



They are not flawed, and it is not impossible, as has been shown. We HAVE to fix the problem. We need to just grit our teeth and do it. It is possible.[/QUOTE]

Totally flawed. The deficit cannot be fixed, much less the debt. Any attempt to go as far as needed to fix either would throw the economy in a downward spiral and destroy the conutry. We will default in the coming months and at best a very few years and become like a third world nation.

 

[Havensdad]

Not so, on all counts. First, military defense was 895 billion, not 705. The yearly deficit is 1.27 trillion. It does not leave "nearly a trillion." 450 billion (1/2 the defense budget), 73 billion from SS, 80 billion from Medicaid/Medicare, leaves a deficit of just 660 billion.

Now, if you look at this break down of the federal budget...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/budget-2010/

You will see two categories that take up a huge portion of the remaining: "Other" Discretionary (520 billion), and "Other" mandatory (612 billion). The first contains absolutely insane items for everything like grants for seeing how much alcohol it takes to get a female co-ed drunk, to cowboy poetry festivals, and other pork projects. It can be cut by half, extremely easily. The second also contains an enormous amount of fat, which can be trimmed.

After trimming these, this leaves just over 200 billion dollars. This can be balanced by closing tax loopholes that corporations and CEO's exploit, imposing a 10 percent tariff on all imported goods, and deporting illegal aliens (thereby freeing up jobs that will be taken by tax paying Americans).

Another thing...put a cap on Federal employees salary not to exceed 100 thousand per year. There are people in the Obama administration that are making more than professional Football players. That is absolutely unconscionable.



Please look at the figures above. I am not for raising taxes, BTW. That kills an economy.



Let them. We import FAR more than we export. Free trade agreements are STUPID for the person doing most of the importing! If they want to get into a tariff war, we can do that. It will hurt them more than us. We are the number one consumer on the planet. But they are too smart for that. They would just eat the 10 percent.



They are not flawed, and it is not impossible, as has been shown. We HAVE to fix the problem. We need to just grit our teeth and do it. It is possible.

Totally flawed. The deficit cannot be fixed, much less the debt. Any attempt to go as far as needed to fix either would throw the economy in a downward spiral and destroy the conutry. We will default in the coming months and at best a very few years and become like a third world nation.

Not so. It may happen, but it doesn't have to. The keys to fixing our debt crisis, would NOT collapse the economy; they would make it boom! A tariff on foreign imports, would increase domestic production as companies became more able to compete. Deporting illegals, and taking away welfare benefits would force Americans off their butts, and would drop the unemployment rate.

Just sticking your fingers in your ears and hoping it goes away is certainly not the solution, nor is a defeatist attitude. The numbers say it CAN be done, and therefore it SHOULD be done.

 

[freeatlast]

Not so. It may happen, but it doesn't have to. The keys to fixing our debt crisis, would NOT collapse the economy; they would make it boom! A tariff on foreign imports, would increase domestic production as companies became more able to compete. Deporting illegals, and taking away welfare benefits would force Americans off their butts, and would drop the unemployment rate.

Just sticking your fingers in your ears and hoping it goes away is certainly not the solution, nor is a defeatist attitude. The numbers say it CAN be done, and therefore it SHOULD be done.

Sorry but your math and figures does not compute. There is no way to fix the problem. No amount of cutting can suffice. The answer is to get ready to lose just about everything you own along with any retirement money.

 

[mandym]

Sorry but your math and figures does not compute. There is no way to fix the problem. No amount of cutting can suffice. The answer is to get ready to lose just about everything you own along with any retirement money.

You gotta be kidding me.

 

[Havensdad]

Sorry but your math and figures does not compute. There is no way to fix the problem. No amount of cutting can suffice. The answer is to get ready to lose just about everything you own along with any retirement money.

Sorry, but the math does compute. Simply saying something won't work, when all evidence is to the contrary, is not a sufficient argument. Are you some kind of doom crier or something?

And actually, there is no need for people to lose anything. Put your money in gold. For those who are in debt, an economic crash would be GREAT news, since hyperinflation would make paying off ones debts (including mortgages, car notes, etc.), easy and immediate.

 

[freeatlast]

Sorry, but the math does compute. Simply saying something won't work, when all evidence is to the contrary, is not a sufficient argument. Are you some kind of doom crier or something?

And actually, there is no need for people to lose anything. Put your money in gold. For those who are in debt, an economic crash would be GREAT news, since hyperinflation would make paying off ones debts (including mortgages, car notes, etc.), easy and immediate.

Tell the poor in Mexico how good they have it when the peso is devalued. This cannot be fixed and it will not be fixed. By the way if people started buying gold it would rise out of reach and when the fall comes it would drop back down and they would still lose everything. Try eating gold.

 

[Havensdad]

Tell the poor in Mexico how good they have it when the peso is devalued. This cannot be fixed and it will not be fixed. By the way if people started buying gold it would rise out of reach and when the fall comes it would drop back down and they would still lose everything. Try eating gold.

Um, no. Brother, the more you talk, the more I believe you have not studied this matter at all.

First, YES, it can be fixed. The math says that it can be fixed. You cannot argue with math...

Second, when an economy collapses, gold values do NOT go down...they skyrocket! Gold is a universal currency. So if you buy 1500 dollars worth of gold (which would currently be about an ounce) right now, and the economy plummets, bringing about hyperinflation of the dollar, lets say, 400 percent, the value of gold does NOT plummet, but instead skyrockets in relation to the dollar, in this case, to 6000 dollars an ounce.

Gold is like an anchor. It stays the same. Currencies rise and fall in relation to it, not vice versa.

Finally, do you think farmers will quit farming because the U.S. defaults on its debt? Of course not. Did you also buy into the Y2K hype?

 

[freeatlast]

Um, no. Brother, the more you talk, the more I believe you have not studied this matter at all.

First, YES, it can be fixed. The math says that it can be fixed. You cannot argue with math...

Second, when an economy collapses, gold values do NOT go down...they skyrocket! Gold is a universal currency. So if you buy 1500 dollars worth of gold (which would currently be about an ounce) right now, and the economy plummets, bringing about hyperinflation of the dollar, lets say, 400 percent, the value of gold does NOT plummet, but instead skyrockets in relation to the dollar, in this case, to 6000 dollars an ounce.

Gold is like an anchor. It stays the same. Currencies rise and fall in relation to it, not vice versa.

Finally, do you think farmers will quit farming because the U.S. defaults on its debt? Of course not. Did you also buy into the Y2K hype?

No the debt cannot be fixed. The math proves that.

 

[Havensdad]

No the debt cannot be fixed. The math proves that.

You have not shown that. Please put the figures up, and show how it cannot be fixed. I have already shown figures that demonstrate it can be. Simply saying "uh-uh!" as loud as you can, is not an argument.

 

[freeatlast]

You have not shown that. Please put the figures up, and show how it cannot be fixed. I have already shown figures that demonstrate it can be. Simply saying "uh-uh!" as loud as you can, is not an argument.

I put figures up and they prove the point. The debt cannot be fixed and we will default at some point.

 

[Havensdad]

I put figures up and they prove the point. The debt cannot be fixed and we will default at some point.

The only figures you posted were wrong. Again, lets make this simple, so maybe you can understand. I will put everything in terms of Trillions, so that it is easy to compute.

2.57 Trillion Actual annual revenue of the Fed.
-.44 trillion for defense
-.25 trillion for other discretionary spending
-.65 trillion for Social Security
-.45 trillion for medicare
-.25 trillion for medicaid
-.28 trillion for other mandatory spending (including government employees)
-.3 trillion for servicing our existing debt
+ .015 trillion additional revenue from tariff
+ .1 trillion additional revenue from closing tax loopholes


= Surplus of 65 billion dollars, to pay down the debt.

You might object, for philosophical and political reasons to DOING this, but it nevertheless CAN and SHOULD be done.

 

[freeatlast]

The only figures you posted were wrong. Again, lets make this simple, so maybe you can understand. I will put everything in terms of Trillions, so that it is easy to compute.

2.57 Trillion Actual annual revenue of the Fed.
-.44 trillion for defense
-.25 trillion for other discretionary spending
-.65 trillion for Social Security
-.45 trillion for medicare
-.25 trillion for medicaid
-.28 trillion for other mandatory spending (including government employees)
-.3 trillion for servicing our existing debt
+ .015 trillion additional revenue from tariff
+ .1 trillion additional revenue from closing tax loopholes


= Surplus of 65 billion dollars, to pay down the debt.

You might object, for philosophical and political reasons to DOING this, but it nevertheless CAN and SHOULD be done.

Sorry those numbers cannot work. it is impossible to pay down the deficit much less the debt. we are in too deep.