WHO lauds Sweden as a ‘model’ going forward

[Calminian]

Not sure what to make of this. WHO has been all over the place.

WHO lauds lockdown-ignoring Sweden as a ‘model’ for countries going forward

The case of Sweden is intriguing, however. They claim they're close to herd immunity, which I believe is the end-goal for all, be it by vaccine or antibodies or the natural way.

I will say, knowing what we know now, it might have been wiser to keep the country open while only isolating high-risk Americans. We could have thrown millions at them (maybe billions) to help, rather than trillions at those in lockdown.

Of course this is hindsight. We didn't know then, what we know now. Trump never could have done that at the time with the experts howling doom and gloom. But it does appear that apart from those in a high-risk category, this disease is amazingly mild, especially in children.

 

[KenH]

But it does appear that apart from those in a high-risk category, this disease is amazingly mild, especially in children.

Yep. It is becoming increasingly clear that the U.S. response was very badly bungled.

Bungling is basically the status quo for government. Government is all about force and when you have a hammer, everything you see looks like a nail.

 

[Calminian]

Yep. It is becoming increasingly clear that the U.S. response was very badly bungled.

Bungling is basically the status quo for government. Government is all about force and when you have a hammer, everything you see looks like a nail.

Just as the effects of the virus were initially unknown, the effects of the response are largely unknown as well. We will see what courses are corrected and what the final effect will be. I still believe the economy can bounce back.

 

[KenH]

I still believe the economy can bounce back.

I hope so, but even if the economy bounces back the ginormous increase in debt will hamper the nation for decades to come. It was highly irresponsible for the federal government to run deficits of more than a trillion dollars a year, before the virus panic hit, when the economy was growing.

 

[777]

The GDP numbers for this quarter are going to be like haven't been seen since the Great Depression but I think the US economy is resilient and will bounce right back - still trillions and trillions of dollars in debt, of course.

And with Sweden, hindsight is 20/20, as WHO has to know. I thought it was odd that Japan had such few cases of this, being a small island loaded with people on top of each other in the cities - they followed some of the Chinese model but not as lax as Sweden.

 

[church mouse guy]

WHO is so communist.

 

[Calminian]

The GDP numbers for this quarter are going to be like haven't been seen since the Great Depression but I think the US economy is resilient and will bounce right back - still trillions and trillions of dollars in debt, of course.

And with Sweden, hindsight is 20/20, as WHO has to know. I thought it was odd that Japan had such few cases of this, being a small island loaded with people on top of each other in the cities - they followed some of the Chinese model but not as lax as Sweden.

They completely shut down travel, and already were a zero immigration country.

 

[Gold Dragon]

Not sure what to make of this. WHO has been all over the place.

WHO lauds lockdown-ignoring Sweden as a ‘model’ for countries going forward

The case of Sweden is intriguing, however. They claim they're close to herd immunity, which I believe is the end-goal for all, be it by vaccine.

Your title is correct. Sweden is a model for going forward. However if you look at Dr Ryan’s comments it is not a model to follow for what has happened so far.

The role of public trust in managing COVID-19: WHO briefing

The major difference in Sweden’s approach is trust in the population. Ryan said: “What it has done differently is it is very much relying on its relationship with its citizenry. It really has trusted its own communities to implement that physical distance.”

That trust, combined with strategic controls and clear communication, could provide a template for other countries that are loosening lockdown restrictions to safely adapt to a new normal. Ryan said: "If we are to reach a new normal, in many ways Sweden represents a future model."

Still, Ryan cautioned on Sweden's strategy: “It remains to be seen whether [its approach] will be fully successful or not.”

Continued vigilance will be key regardless of the exact model countries follow. Ryan said: “If we wish to get back to a society in which we don't have lockdowns, then society may need to adapt to a medium[-term], or potentially a longer period of time in which our physical and social relationships with each other will have to be moderated by the presence of the virus.

“We will have to be aware the virus is present and we will have to, as individuals, families and communities, do everything possible on a day-to-day basis to reduce the transmission of the virus.”

As countries that successfully controlled the spread of covid19 come out if lockdowns, they will need to implement something like what Sweden is doing.

However, Sweden’s approach is rightly criticized for allowing the first wave there to be much worse than it would have been if they had followed their neighbours. And their economy is still projected to suffer similarly to the rest of Europe.

Monetary policy April 2020: The Riksbank is supporting an economy in crisis

Despite the comprehensive measures both in Sweden and abroad, the economic consequences of the pandemic will be considerable. The consequences for the economy will vary depending on how long the spread of infection continues and on how long the restrictions implemented to slow it down are in place. The Riksbank has therefore chosen to describe possible developments in two scenarios instead of in one detailed forecast.

In both scenarios, production falls sharply to begin with, and more than during the financial crisis. Sharply falling oil and electricity prices will contribute to low inflation this year. The assessments of inflation are more uncertain than usual, but it is reasonable to assume that inflation will approach the target once the economy recovers. The scenarios are illustrated in the Monetary Policy Report and in the tables below.

Meanwhile, Sweden has the 7th most deaths per million population in the world if you exclude small island nations and city states just after Belgium, Spain, Italy, UK, France and the Netherlands at 256 per million. This is 4-6 times it’s similar neighboring countries of Denmark, Norway and Finland.

Their figures are probably severely undercounted because they are not testing people in the community and really only testing health care/aged care workers and hospitalized patients.

COVID-19 - The Public Health Agency of Sweden

Who should be tested for COVID-19?


The healthcare services in Sweden prioritise the following groups:

• Hospitalised patients
• People that work in healthcare or elderly care, with suspected COVID-19.

The aim with this priority is to protect those that are most vulnerable and most exposed for the virus.

Anyone who is ill with symptoms of cold or flu should stay at home in order to minimize the risk of passing the illness on to others. This group will not be prioritised for testing.

 

[church mouse guy]

The GDP numbers for this quarter are going to be like haven't been seen since the Great Depression but I think the US economy is resilient and will bounce right back - still trillions and trillions of dollars in debt, of course.

And with Sweden, hindsight is 20/20, as WHO has to know. I thought it was odd that Japan had such few cases of this, being a small island loaded with people on top of each other in the cities - they followed some of the Chinese model but not as lax as Sweden.

Japan doesn't care for foreigners and doesn't tolerate immigration so they helped themselves that way.

We need N95 masks for everyone as China will unleash another virus one day.

 

[KenH]

Meanwhile, Sweden has the 7th most deaths per million population in the world

Sweden made a conscious decision to have more deaths up front for less deaths later as their method was sustainable from the start. Even all this lockdown mess imposed on us in the United States wasn’t so much to limit the number of deaths overall but to spread them out so that hospitals would not be overworked.

As usual, government fouled up the U.S. response.

 

[KenH]

We need N95 masks for everyone as China will unleash another virus one day.

I was told by a nurse that the N95 is awful to wear and hard to breath while wearing.

 

[Calminian]

Your title is correct. Sweden is a model for going forward. However if you look at Dr Ryan’s comments it is not a model to follow for what has happened so far.

The role of public trust in managing COVID-19: WHO briefing



As countries that successfully controlled the spread of covid19 come out if lockdowns, they will need to implement something like what Sweden is doing.

However, Sweden’s approach is rightly criticized for allowing the first wave there to be much worse than it would have been if they had followed their neighbours. And their economy is still projected to suffer similarly to the rest of Europe.

Monetary policy April 2020: The Riksbank is supporting an economy in crisis


Meanwhile, Sweden has the 7th most deaths per million population in the world if you exclude small island nations and city states just after Belgium, Spain, Italy, UK, France and the Netherlands at 256 per million. This is 4-6 times it’s similar neighboring countries of Denmark, Norway and Finland.

Their figures are probably severely undercounted because they are not testing people in the community and really only testing health care/aged care workers and hospitalized patients.

COVID-19 - The Public Health Agency of Sweden

I think what we need to do is wait until this is over, then tally the deaths. Some approaches are going to have more deaths early on, others will struggle longer because they don't have immunity.

And in hindsight, I think it's clear now, knowing what we know, all we needed to do was isolate those at risk, and leave everyone else alone. It would have been a lot cheaper. Take away those above 70s with preexisting illnesses and problems, and this disease is relatively mild. I think Sweden officials have made similar comments. But hindsight's always 20/20.

 

[KenH]

And in hindsight, I think it's clear now, knowing what we know, all we needed to do was isolate those at risk, and leave everyone else alone.

Yep. But fear and panic don’t usually lead to good decision making and the outcomes reflect that.

 

[Gold Dragon]

I think what we need to do is wait until this is over, then tally the deaths. Some approaches are going to have more deaths early on, others will struggle longer because they don't have immunity.

And in hindsight, I think it's clear now, knowing what we know, all we needed to do was isolate those at risk, and leave everyone else alone. It would have been a lot cheaper. Take away those above 70s with preexisting illnesses and problems, and this disease is relatively mild. I think Sweden officials have made similar comments. But hindsight's always 20/20.

Sweden made a conscious decision to have more deaths up front for less deaths later as their method was sustainable from the start. Even all this lockdown mess imposed on us in the United States wasn’t so much to limit the number of deaths overall but to spread them out so that hospitals would not be overworked.

As usual, government fouled up the U.S. response.

The WHO is not saying the Sweden’s approach up until now was the right one. It is saying that Sweden’s approach is a potential model for those coming out of lockdowns for what their response going forward might look like.

I would say from the data shows that Sweden’s approach was clearly the wrong approach. Especially since we don’t know if all those infected people will be immune. Their approach is very unlikely to reduce the total number of deaths compared to their neighbours and also appears to have no improvement to their economy compared to its neighbours according to their own central bank projections. It looks like instead of taking the economic hit early to potentially save lives in the future, they let people die early based on uncertain theory that still has no evidence of being true in order to delay an inevitable economic recession.

 

[Calminian]

The WHO is not saying the Sweden’s approach up until now was the right one. It is saying that Sweden’s approach is a potential model for those coming out of lockdowns for what their response going forward might look like.

Yes, you've said this already.

I would say from the data shows that Sweden’s approach was clearly the wrong approach. Especially since we don’t know if all those infected people will be immune.

Neither do we know if vaccines will work. We don't know anything. We all had our opinions. Now we need to wait and see if no one in Sweden is immune. I doubt you're right on this though.

 

[KenH]

they let people die early based on uncertain theory that still has no evidence of being true in order to delay an inevitable economic recession.

Will probably be at least 2 years before a full accounting of the various paths taken will be available.

 

[Gold Dragon]

Yes, you've said this already.

That was for KenH

Neither do we know if vaccines will work. We don't know anything. We all had our opinions. Now we need to wait and see if no one in Sweden is immune. I doubt you're right on this though.

Before you create another strawman to attack, I never said no one will be immune. Just that immunity is still an unknown.

What we do know about natural immunity from other diseases is that it often corresponds to severity of illness. So people who recover from mild illnesses often do not develop a very strong or long lasting immune response while people who recover from a severe illness are much more likely to develop a good long lasting immunity.

 

[Benjamin]

If the WHO is "lauding" Sweden's model, the most logical response according to WHO's incompetence concerning overseeing this matter would be to "condemn" such a model.

 

[Gold Dragon]

Neither do we know if vaccines will work. We don't know anything. We all had our opinions.

This is an important point. Without the guarantee of a vaccine ever working, it is even more important that we control the rate of infection. It is very possible that we will still be battling covid19 for many years and slowing it down so that we have as much time as possible to research treatment options is then even more important.

Lockdowns are one of the few tools left to control the rate of infection when our other measures are insufficient. That occurs when a highly infectious disease is not taken seriously enough by a government early on and community spread is much faster than traditional public health measures (testing, isolating cases, contact tracing and social distancing) can handle.

 

[church mouse guy]

I was told by a nurse that the N95 is awful to wear and hard to breath while wearing.

Everyone says that but the N95 also is lifesaving.