Give me a mathematical analysis and I might be more receptive to such reasoning. As it stands though, it appears to rely on an argument from silence. Plus, I can't really tell what assumptions are at work.
I don't know how to do mathematical analysis of this but here's a list of the earliest, most useful, copies of canons. All of this stuff is checkable in either Ellis or Metzger's works above or you can hop over to CCEL.org for it.
Now the early versions of the NT are as follows (all of these can be checked by Metzger's
NT Canon):
Muratorian canon, date late-200,
accepted
four Gospels + Acts (of Apostles)
Pauline: 1 Cor, Eph, Phil, Col, Gal, 1 Thess, Rom, 2 Cor, 2 Thess, 1 Tim, 2 Tim, Titus, Philemon
Catholic Epistles: 1-3 John, Jude
Revelation of John
Revelation of Peter (some accept)
Wisdom of Solomon
rejected:
Shepherd of Hermas (though worthy of reading)
Revelation of Peter (some say private reading only)
Paul's Epistle to the Laodiceans (forgery)
Paul's Epistle to the Alexandrians (forgery)
Nothing from Arsinous, Valentinus or Miltiades (all Marcionites)
Canon of Origen, date early 200
accepted
Four Gospels + Acts (of Apostles)
Revelation of John
Catholic Epistles: 1-3 John, 1-2 Peter, Hebrews
Pauline: 2 Cor, Romans
Canon of Eusebius of Caesarea, date early 300
accepted
4 Gospels + Acts (of Apostles)
Pauline: all 13 above listed
Catholic: 1-2 Peter, 1-3 John, James, Jude, Hebrews
Revelation of John
rejected/spurious
Apocolypse of Peter
Epistle of Barnabus
Teachings of the Apostles
worthy of reading, not canonical
Gospel of Peter
Gospel of Thomas
Gospel of Matthias
Acts of Andrews
Acts of John
Canon insert in Codex Claromontanus, date uncertain
accepted
Four Gospels + Acts (of Apostles)
Pauline: Rom, 1-2 Cor, Gal, Eph, 1-2 Tim, Titus, Col, Phile
Catholic: 1-2 Peter, James, 1-3 John, Jude
Epistle of Barnabus
Revelation of John
Revelation of Peter
The Shepherd of Hermas
Acts of Paul
Canon of Cyril of Jerusalem, date c. 350
accepted
Four Gospels + Acts (of Apostles)
Catholic Epitsles: all of James, Peter, John, and Jude
Pauline: All, includes Hebrews in Pauline
rejected
Gospel of Thomas (Manichean gospel)
Cheltenham Canon, date c 360
accepted
Four Gospels + Acts
Pauline: all 13
Revelation of John
Catholic: 1-3 John, 1-2 Peter
Canon approved by Snyod of Laodicea, date c. 363
accepted
Four Gospels + Acts
Catholic Epistles: all of John, James, Jude, and Peter
Pauline: all 13 plus Hebrews
Canon of Athanasius date c. 367
accepted
Four Gospels + Acts (of Apostles)
Catholic: all listed
Pauline: all listed (includes Hebrews with Paul)
Revelation of John
Canon approved by 'Apostolic Canons' date c 380
accepted
Four Gospels + Acts (of Apostles)
Pauline: all 13 plus Hebrews
Catholic: all seven
two Epistles of Clement
for private reading
Constitutions of Clement (all 8 books)
Canon of Gregory of Naziazus date: mid-300
accepted:
Four Gospels + Acts (of Apostles)
Pauline: all 13 plus Hebrews
Catholic: all 7
Canon of Amphilochius of Iconium date post-394
accepted:
Four Gospels + Acts (of Apostles)
Pauline: all 13 plus Hebrews
Catholic: all 7
Revelation of John
Canon approved by Synod of Carthage date c. 397
Four Gospels + Acts (of Apostles)
Pauline: all 13
Catholic: all 7 plus Hebrews
Revelation of John
This is the forma canonization process. I contend that the early churches had the NT at various levels by the end of the second century but they also had other documents. Some of them would have been missing documents and others would have been using documents.
The "Bible" of the early church was the Old Testament. These new documents began being accepted but their proliferation and acceptance took time.
dwmoeller1 said:
Furthermore, I am trying to make a distinction between what is probable and what is possible. You give good points for the improbability, but seem to conclude the probability approaches so close to zero as to effectively be impossible. I am willing to accept that it is unlikely, difficult or improbable, but avoid the conclusion that it was impossible (or nearly so). Of course, the same holds true for any arguing that the churches almost certainly did have access to complete copies. In short, neither side can use this as support or negation.
The probability of a completed NT canon and in the hands of the various churches by the end of the 1st century is nearly zero. They had to handle claims of authorship (remember these guys didn't sign it and notarize it), apostolic authority, accuracy, coherency, dealing with false Gospels, etc. Its so hard to bring these documents together, much less the people, in a situation like this.
I'm willing to accept mid to late second century, but not the end of the first. Most scholars in this area don't accept either and push towards mid to late fourth century. It was a really difficult thing to do, pulling together to NT documents that is.
Really read Ellis its good, good stuff.