Your Aren't Saving Lives After All

[Aaron]

Neither are you flattening the curve.

Professors Push Back On Pandemic Models: Be Honest About What Happens After Lockdowns Are Lifted

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[Use of Time]

Neither are you flattening the curve.

Professors Push Back On Pandemic Models: Be Honest About What Happens After Lockdowns Are Lifted

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They even acknowledge that it helps alleviate hospital capacity, resources and even allows for more strategizing. I find it hard to believe that doesn’t translate into saving lives in response to your misleading thread title, especially in areas where hospitals are already overrun.

What the article doesn’t do is recommend against hunkering down either.

 

[Gold Dragon]

Neither are you flattening the curve.

Professors Push Back On Pandemic Models: Be Honest About What Happens After Lockdowns Are Lifted

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This is their conclusion.

A call to honesty in pandemic modeling

There is a simple truth behind the problems with these modeling conclusions. The duration of containment efforts does not matter, if transmission rates return to normal when they end, and mortality rates have not improved. This is simply because as long as a large majority of the population remains uninfected, lifting containment measures will lead to an epidemic almost as large as would happen without having mitigations in place at all.

This is not to say that there are not good reasons to use mitigations as a delay tactic. For example, we may hope to use the months we buy with containment measures to improve hospital capacity, in the hopes of achieving a reduction in the mortality rate. We might even wish to use these months just to consider our options as a society and formulate a strategy. But mitigations themselves are not saving lives in these scenarios; instead, it is what we do with the time that gives us an opportunity to improve the outcome of the epidemic.

Yes, the authors are correct that if we just go back to lifting containment measures and nothing else changes then we are just delaying the same number of deaths. But there are things we can do with time that we buy with hard shutdowns that can significantly change the course of the pandemic.

Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance

Tomas Pueyo's popular "The Hammer and the Dance" model addresses the concerns of Chikina and Pegden with a model that starts with an initial hard suppression '"hammer" to stop that initial wave and buy time to do things like:
1. increase critical care capacity
2. decrease community infectivity with social habits and masks
3. learn more about the virus
4. get more data on effectiveness of treatments
5. understand the cost and benefits of social distancing

And follow that with longer term pulsed social distancing strategies that increase or decrease depending on case numbers in a “dance” that keeps infection levels under control until a vaccine is developed.

 

[church mouse guy]

Neither are you flattening the curve.

Professors Push Back On Pandemic Models: Be Honest About What Happens After Lockdowns Are Lifted

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Greta was right after all.

 

[Reynolds]

Neither are you flattening the curve.

Professors Push Back On Pandemic Models: Be Honest About What Happens After Lockdowns Are Lifted

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They are buying time to better prepare, develop better treatmebts, and hoping hot weather gets here and stops the spread.

 

[Scott Downey]

The delay tactic is to find treatments that work is all. They have never been able to stop colds and flu from spreading. Tens of thousands die from flu every year and it adds up over 100,000 deaths every 2 years or so just here in the USA. Flu mutates a lot which is why your immunity to it wont last more than the one flu season. And a lot of different corona viruses cause the common cold.

 

[Scott Downey]

Since 80% recover without needing to go to the hospital, this means tens of thousands and hundreds of thousands, then millions, then 10's of millions then 100's of millions will recover from this virus. Which is why the epidemic peters out on its own. Typically pandemics last 2 or 3 months, after which everyone who can be infected got infected and the recovered people offer herd immunity to the rest. The virus just can not spread anymore. And if it does not mutate the virus never comes back. Spanish flu mutated 3 or 4 times, the third time to harmless flu then was nothing.

 

[Aaron]

They are buying time to better prepare, develop better treatmebts, and hoping hot weather gets here and stops the spread.

That's not the rhetoric. And a short term mitigation is the most effective. According to these professors, extending shutdowns from two weeks to a month might increase the numbers of infected and deaths by infection by delaying the inevitable peak to the winter months.

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[Scott Downey]

That's not the rhetoric. And a short term mitigation is the most effective. According to these professors, extending shutdowns from two weeks to a month might increase the numbers of infected and deaths by infection by delaying the inevitable peak to the winter months.

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And that does cause carnage to people's livelihoods, jobs, industries creating bad recessions.
That has a real cost in lives around the world, as the standard of living goes down everywhere, and some countries you can't go down too much as then your basically starving, then dying. Watched a video on India which entered a 21 day total lockdown, ZERO working except for essential jobs. Since over 75% are day laborers they have no job so then no money to get food. They showed all these people getting some government food handout yet they were all sitting close together. What good does that lock down do, I doubt it has much benefit and certainly is causing serious problems there.

 

[Wingman68]

https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/04/how_a_police_state_is_born.html

Never in our lifetime have we witnessed something like this. This article in American Thinker says it all.

 

[InTheLight]

https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/04/how_a_police_state_is_born.html

Never in our lifetime have we witnessed something like this. This article in American Thinker says it all.

Article is a scare-mongering piece.

From the article:
Governments never give up power once attained.

Are you seriously suggesting that we won't be able to congregate in groups of more than 10 people when this is over?
Are you seriously suggesting that retailers, including gun retailers, will not be allowed to open again?
Are you suggesting pastors will continue to be arrested for holding services after the pandemic passes?
Are you suggesting some products previously sold in the USA will not be allowed to be sold after the pandemic passes?

This is what the article is suggesting. You posted the article. I presume you endorse it.

 

[church mouse guy]

https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/04/how_a_police_state_is_born.html

Never in our lifetime have we witnessed something like this. This article in American Thinker says it all.

The epidemic is worse in the blue states and the big cities. Indianapolis people have a hotspot for the Chinese virus and a useless municipal government so Indianapolis people are running around like chickens with their heads cut off. We probably have 50,000 who are HIV positive and thus at risk as well as another 200,000 living in squalor. There is a real panic amongst Indianapolis people. It seems clear that short of martial law people are not going to obey social distancing. At any rate, Indianapolis city buses are packed like proverbial sardines in a can. The economy is not going to rebound as the Republicans say because federal stimulus got hijacked in Congress so that the money went to the Kennedy Center and PBS, not the ordinary people with low-paying service jobs that are not going to return because of the long shut-down. There is too much debt, public and private, and too much vacant commercial real estate. People with cash are going to get some wonderful deals in real estate. Neither party is capable of balancing the governmental budgets at any level. Look for China to launch another soon and look for Islamic terrorism to increase domestically.

 

[Wingman68]

Article is a scare-mongering piece.

From the article:
Governments never give up power once attained.

Are you seriously suggesting that we won't be able to congregate in groups of more than 10 people when this is over?
Are you seriously suggesting that retailers, including gun retailers, will not be allowed to open again?
Are you suggesting pastors will continue to be arrested for holding services after the pandemic passes?
Are you suggesting some products previously sold in the USA will not be allowed to be sold after the pandemic passes?

This is what the article is suggesting. You posted the article. I presume you endorse it.

I’m not suggesting any such thing. You are twisting the gist, & yes I endorse what the author is saying. You are apparently willing to accept whatever they demand of you, wherein you give up all previous rights until THEY decide when & if you get them back. Here is an example, which IS happening: The Dem Gov Blackface from the great state of Virginia, issued a stay-at-home order until June 10. How is it he came up with that date? Ridiculous? Nah, the Republican primary is June 9. The left will be in no hurry to let it rip, & get back to normal after this taste of power. I suspect we will be subject to more of these tactics going forward. This was a wonderful result for them.

 

[Scott Downey]

https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/04/how_a_police_state_is_born.html

Never in our lifetime have we witnessed something like this. This article in American Thinker says it all.

DC police can arrest people if they go outside to do non essential activities, a big $5000 fine and possible 90 days in jail.
I read some governors are setting up squeal hotlines where you can report your neighbor for violating social distancing rules. It does seem the blue states are forcing more populace controls than the red states.

 

[Reynolds]

That's not the rhetoric. And a short term mitigation is the most effective. According to these professors, extending shutdowns from two weeks to a month might increase the numbers of infected and deaths by infection by delaying the inevitable peak to the winter months.

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According to the "professors" we evolved from apes.

 

[church mouse guy]

DC police can arrest people if they go outside to do non essential activities, a big $5000 fine and possible 90 days in jail.
I read some governors are setting up squeal hotlines where you can report your neighbor for violating social distancing rules. It does seem the blue states are forcing more populace controls than the red states.

There's video of a bunch of white cops trying to bust up a birthday party on the streets of Los Angeles. The lovely ladies called the police terrible names and said that they would be back as soon as the police left. I have an idea that the police lost. They say New Yorkers have jammed the parks. I can't see that even the national guard can enforce this distancing thing. The outfit where I work has one supervisor writing people up to be fired for sitting too close together at lunch. But, Indianapolis is having a panic and a temper tantrum. People are driving like idiots even though there is no traffic. Indianapolis is the main hotspot in the state of Indiana.

 

[church mouse guy]

Article is a scare-mongering piece.

From the article:
Governments never give up power once attained.

Are you seriously suggesting that we won't be able to congregate in groups of more than 10 people when this is over?
Are you seriously suggesting that retailers, including gun retailers, will not be allowed to open again?
Are you suggesting pastors will continue to be arrested for holding services after the pandemic passes?
Are you suggesting some products previously sold in the USA will not be allowed to be sold after the pandemic passes?

This is what the article is suggesting. You posted the article. I presume you endorse it.

Minnesota has a hotline to report people who are not social distancing so you can turn in your neighbors--what's not to like:

 

[InTheLight]

I’m not suggesting any such thing. You are twisting the gist, & yes I endorse what the author is saying.

I'm not twisting anything. I read the article. The author lists five or six things that the government has imposed on us during this pandemic and then states:

Governments never give up power once attained.

The article is, in fact, declaring that these government restrictions will continue. There is no other way to interpret what was written!

You are apparently willing to accept whatever they demand of you, wherein you give up all previous rights until THEY decide when & if you get them back.

Mind reading. <Sigh>

 

[OnlyaSinner]

A flood control dam doesn't alter the annual volume of water flowing under the downstream bridge. What the dam does is to catch the flood surge coming from the hills and then to let the water out in measured fashion over a longer period, preventing that surge from washing away the bridge. The curve-flattening actions may not reduce by much the total number of people getting the virus, but may prevent catastrophic overload of the medical system, a scenario that probably would increase the proportion of cases being fatal, due to insufficient and/or exhausted medical professionals having to ration care.

 

[Calminian]

A flood control dam doesn't alter the annual volume of water flowing under the downstream bridge. ....

True, but water doesn't die when it runs out of places to go. Viruses do.