We do know with what we have thus far. That is what we can use...not guesses about what could happen.We don't really know since no real figures are avail that show deaths and effects from the vax. In some places all were vaxxed and they got sick. That means 100%! The numbers do not exist that are honest or reliable for you to cite what any risk is. It is all a matter of belief, and many of us do not believe a word they say any more. In fact, we absolutely disbelieve them. Many of the known liar politicians and blabber mouths used to advance the tyranny are absolute liars.
We know the unvaccinated covid patients are dying of the virus 1540% more often than vaccinated people with covid. We know that deaths possibly associated with vaccines are at .002% while unvaccinated deaths associated with covid are .05%.
Will the data change? Perhaps. But which way we do not know. We are not God.
As it stands your logic dictates the vaccines are safe, with very minimal risk.