Flight MH370 mystery gets deeper and weirder

[kyredneck]

From real people that actually fly these birds for their livelihood.

Deliberate theorist(s):

Post 94:

"I think its time to stop all those conspiracy or alternative theories. Lets face it, this was taken to south indian ocean on purpose, the purpose was to never be found again, to either commit suicide or purposedly to kill the peoplel on board. We will most likely never find out, as the CVR only records 2 hours, so whatever has happened in the cockpit at the time the transponder was turned off, will not be on the CVR. Most likely, the only way we could find out would be, if people on board remained alive and have made notes or videos on their mobiles, describing the event. My fear is however, that soon after the plan was programmed into the computer, the pilot has depresurrized the cabin and once oxygen supply has run out, everyone died of hypoxia. In that case I doubt anyone had the time to record the event until it was too late."

Post 142:

"After Indonesia was passed, someone had to enter either a manual heading SOUTH or had to enter a SOUTH waypoint/route. Someone had to be alive to do that. Argues against a mech fault."

Accidental theorist:

Post 103:

Well, I have to say while the southern crash arc didn't make sense to me earlier on, after speaking with a former 777 captain now 747 captain we were able to hash through a possible scenario that makes some sense.

Right after the handoff from Malaysian ATC, there is a complete failure of the cockpit electrics, panels all go dark, for a few seconds. This may be coupled with the cabin altitude warning or error.

Captain realizes that he has a problem that includes possible cabin and electrical brings the plane down to 12000 and turns back towards the peninsula in anticipation of making an emergency landing.

At some point in this the electronics come back up at least in part (comms are still out). Upon reaching 12000 feet the crew is able to stabilize the pressure (warning may have been a by product of the electrical failure/glitch)

At some point here in the crew realizes that the aircraft is flying too fast for the altitude. They then find that the throttles are non-responsive and the engines are just turning away. So they make the decision to climb back to 295 to keep the aircraft from overspeeding. As they realize they cannot land the aircraft with the engines running like they were.

Realizing that they have no control of the engines, they make the decision to basically wait the fuel out and then hope to glide to a suitable airport. The idea being that they would just circle Sumatra until such time as the fuel ran out. Once the fuel ran out the idea would be to pick the closest suitable airport and glide to it.

However, at some point along the northern track when the turned south to begin the circling Sumatra the controls became completely unresponsive and the aircraft continued on the heading until it ran out of fuel. With the pilots unable to do anything about it.

Circling Sumatra gave them two advantages. First is that they don't have to worry about terrain. Second it kept them close to shore, for rescue or ditching in the event that they didn't or couldn't make an airport.

This brings the entire thing to a single incident, with the rest being the chain of events that followed from it. Eliminates all of the bad people scenarios and leaves us with a very tragic accident. The worst part of this scenario is the possibility that everyone was well aware of what was happening."

Post 113:

"Out in the middle of the straight for a while 50-100 miles from land. When they realized that they had no control of the aircraft they were way too far away for any mobile phone to have a chance of hitting a tower.

It is a theory that we put together, that fits almost all the facts of the case. One other thought we had that I had forgotten to mention is that it could have been a complete no-win scenario. If the cabin did depressurize and then the engines were not responsive, it could be the choice between high altitude with Hypoxia but keep the plane in once piece or fly low and fast and risk the airframe coming apart."

 

[thisnumbersdisconnected]

I was a pilot in another life. I know pilots don't want to admit something can happen for which they are unprepared, and even when something for which they are unprepared happens, they won't admit it. They'll fight for the life of the bird and everyone on board it until there either is nothing left to fight for, or they lose the fight.

I have no idea what happened. On this thread, I've proposed some wild-guess theories that may or may not prove out. I hope they don't, because as an ex-combat helicopter pilot, I know how badly the pros hate the idea that someone can take their plane away from them and use it for ungodly, evil purposes. Of course they're going to fight that notion. It's in their blood.

I hope the plane went down in the Indian Ocean because of a couple pilots with a screw loose, or mechanical failure, or whatever other explanation is benign instead of frightening. But without any real proof this plane went down -- and regardless of what "magical new information" the Malaysians have, there is no such proof -- everything is a potential explanation, even the unthinkable.

 

[kyredneck]

This is the scenario most don't want to believe, including me.

Post 75:

"As suggested by numerous a.netters in previous threads, this has a pilot suicide (or more precisely a murder-suicide) written all over it. I believe the investigators have reached the same conclusion as the most likely theory, as both a hijacking or a mechanical failure appear to be very unlikely.

The scenario is something like this:
- the suicidal pilot incapacitates the other pilot in the cockpit
- transponder is turned off
- ACARS communications channels are turned off
- navigation to avoid primary radars until over the Indian Ocean
- ditching or crashing into the remote parts of the Southern Indian Ocean to conceal all the tracks

It is likely that the pilot depressurized the plane at some point of time to incapacitate the cabin crew and passengers. The cabin crew and passengers must have either been incapacitated or not realized that anything was wrong when flying over the Malay peninsula to prevent cell phone calls. The pilot might have incapaciated himself also at the same time and leave the plane on the autopilot, or the pilot was flying the plane until crash. The investigators can make an assumption on this based on whether the plane was flying a programmed route or hand-flown."

 

[kyredneck]

#Flight370: Chinese vessel arrived at where French satellite spotted suspected object, found a 15m whale carcasse; photo.

 

[Earth Wind and Fire]

#Flight370: Chinese vessel arrived at where French satellite spotted suspected object, found a 15m whale carcasse; photo.

All I gotta do is take a look at my Governor.....he's a whale carcass:laugh:

guess whats on the menu at all the Chinese restaurants for the next coupla days.....:laugh:

 

[kyredneck]

...you should seek help...

 

[kyredneck]

Is this it?:

Malaysia Airlines MH370 jet finally 'found', 122 objects sighted in remote Indian Ocean

[add]

Wow, scroll down check out the wind and wave action in that area over the past couple weeks:

Extreme Challenges for Investigators

Looks like any debris in that area should be getting closer to Australia the whole time.

 

[thisnumbersdisconnected]

Is this it?:

No. :smilewinkgrin:

Wow, scroll down check out the wind and wave action in that area over the past couple weeks:

Extreme Challenges for Investigators

Looks like any debris in that area should be getting closer to Australia the whole time.

Dated March 23, these photos show a position 1,600 miles west-southwest of Perth, and about 800 miles outside Flight 370's absolute maximum fuel-and-glide range, and (beating the dead horse again) would've been a couple thousand miles west of this location due to wind and current speeds along the Antarctic Circumpolar Current back on March 9, the day of the disappearance.

I'm finding this utterly ridiculous, frankly. Can't possibly be, but they're gonna "sell it to us" anyway.

 

[kyredneck]

....lol, you might want to be doing some 'mental preparation' d-CON...

 

[thisnumbersdisconnected]

....lol, you might want to be doing some 'mental preparation' d-CON...

Won't be no undomesticated aviary delicacies on my menu, KRN. They may show us "wreckage," but it ain't from Flight 370. There just is no way possible the plane got as far as the search area, and even if it could, the debris would't be there 17 days later. It would be west or south of Australia, if not washing up on the shores of the country-continent somewhere.

Of course, I'd have a hard time explaining why they'd go to such elaborate lengths to perpetuate a Malaysian lie, but then again, I don't intend to try to "explain' a farce. I'll just point out that it is, indeed, a farce. Farces don't need explaining. They need exposure. After 20 years' military experience, I don't pretend to understand why governments do the utterly stupid and asinine things they do. And they never have to explain them, even when they get caught in lies as big as this whopper is going to be.

 

[kyredneck]

...whew, talk about a die hard conspiracy theorist....

 

[thisnumbersdisconnected]

...whew, talk about a die hard conspiracy theorist....

Look, KRN, you can keep being disparagingly commenting on my objections to the "facts" if you wish, but as I said yesterday, any idiot who takes the time to look at ocean currents, winds, drift rates, etc. -- something you did just two posts ago! -- can turn into a skeptic rapidly.

I tuned into Fox News a few minutes ago. They were interviewing Bruce McIndoe, President of iJet and a widely recognized risk management, travel industry and intelligence expert. He's suspicious of the debris field. Why? It's too closely clustered, and in the same area as the formerly sighted debris allegedly believed to be from MH370. Why shouldn't it be closely clustered, you ask? Why shouldn't it be in the same area as the previously spotted debris, you ask?

Because it's in the middle of the Antarctice Circumpolar Current, that's why! Duh! One hundred twenty-two pieces of airplane "adrift" in one of the fastest currents in the world's oceans, and it's all neatly stacked together in one location -- the same location (oh wait, not it's not, its 50 miles farther southwest, floating in a current that's flowing east ) as the other debris was in ten days ago -- conveniently lined up to smile for the satellite cameras 17 days later? And all of it anywhere from 700 to 800 miles outside the drop-dead, no-way-it-goes-farther limit of the planes ability to fly and then glide after it ran out of fuel? Yeah, right ...

I'm just taking all the facts they've reported over the last two and a half weeks, adding them up, and coming up with the square root of a negative number. It don't work. It ain't true, and they know it.

 

[thisnumbersdisconnected]

Looks like any debris in that area should be getting closer to Australia the whole time.

Here's an update for you, by the way, with my own emphasis added.

Fox News: Satellite spots 122 objects in search for missing Malaysian jet​

None of the objects were seen on a second pass, a frustration that has been repeated several times in the hunt for Malaysian Airlines Flight 370, missing since March 8 with 239 people aboard. It remains uncertain whether any of the objects came from the plane; they could have come from a cargo ship or something else.

Really? All 122 objects disappeared? Ohhh-kaaaaaay.

 

[Gina B]

TND-

my biggest problem with the offered speculation is that it has been said that the passengers' cellphones were ringing hours after the flight took off, and not diverting directly to voice mail as most cellphones do.....even the high-end networks and phones.
if the passengers saw smoke coming out of the cockpit, one or some of them would have called their people, like the 9-11 victims did.
having said all that, well, here's hoping they find the plane, whatever condition it's in.

Maybe everyone on board is a hero. Something malfunctioned. Perhaps, as suggested prior, there was a problem with the lithium batteries that were being transported.
If the pilots knew the plane couldn't be saved upon landing and that attempting to do so would only injure those on the ground along with all of them being lost, so maybe everyone made the decision to take the plane as far away as possible from where it could harm others, and they just flew until it wouldn't go anymore. Maybe they turned off communications because it was known that they would be stopped from doing this or not believed...but they never thought the wreckage wouldn't be found after.

It makes more sense than anything else so far, if you only go by information released. They didn't find anything to suggest the pilots had anything to do with this. Stolen passports are common, and they surely did intense investigations on the person who provided the tickets and those associated with those two customers. Nobody else seems to have been of concern. Nobody has claimed this. It was carrying a potentially hazardous shipment. It did seem as if there may have been an attempt to land in Malaysia before going off again.

So as long as anything is possible, I personally consider "everyone is a hero" to be the most likely scenario now.

 

[kyredneck]

Thai satellite 'shows 300 floating objects'

"A Thai satellite has detected some 300 objects in an area of the southern Indian Ocean being searched for missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370.

The image was taken by the Thaichote satellite on 24 March, a day after images from a French satellite purported to show 122 floating objects."

 

[kyredneck]

....I'm just taking all the facts they've reported over the last two and a half weeks, adding them up, and coming up with the square root of a negative number. It don't work. It ain't true, and they know it.

All the facts? ROFL!

There's a whole lot of men and equipment involved in this search that's actually in reality a ruse intended to fool the jihadists into thinking that we've been fooled, don't cha think? Do you think this clever scheme is working, or do the jihadists see right through it? You would think that the more countries that get involved, the more convincing this stratagem will be, lol:

"In a statement on its website, AMSA said a total of six countries are now assisting in the search and recovery operation – Australia, New Zealand, the United States, Japan, China and the Republic of Korea.

It also said a total of seven military and five civil aircraft will be involved in today’s search activities.

One Ilyushin IL-76 aircraft from China departed Perth around 8am (Australian Eastern Daylight Time- AEDT) (5am local time) for the search area.

A Royal New Zealand Air Force (RNZAF) P3 Orion aircraft NZ P-3K2 departed for the search area around 9.10am (6am local time).

A Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) P3 Orion scheduled to depart Perth around 11am (8am local time).

A US Navy P8 Poseidon is due to depart around 2pm (11am local time).

A Japanese P3 Orion is due to depart Perth around 3pm (noon local time).

A second RAAF P3 Orion is scheduled to depart for the search area around 4pm (1pm local time).

A Republic of Korea P3 Orion is due to depart around 5pm (2pm local time).

“Two civil aircraft have now departed Perth for the search area. The remaining three civil aircraft will depart for the search area between 10am (AEDT) and midday.

“A total of 34 State Emergency Service (SES) volunteers from Western Australia will be air observers on board the five civil aircraft,” AMSA said.

It added that HMAS Success and China’s polar supply ship Xue Long are now in the search area...."

 

[thisnumbersdisconnected]

A whole lot of men and equipment involved in a search that has yet to turn up anything, despite the satellites overhead reportedly finding some 300 objects in the water below.

CNN: Best Lead Yet?​

The location recorded by the satellite was within the search area scoured Wednesday by a dozen aircraft from six nations, the Australian Maritime Safety Authority said. Nothing was found, the agency said on Twitter.

Experts say it's possible the materials may have drifted or sunk. [Emphasis added]

Fox News: Thai satellite spots 300 floating objects​

All but three of the planes -- a U.S. Navy P-8 Poseidon, a Japanese P-3 Orion and a Japanese Gulfstream jet -- reached the search zone, about 1,550 miles southwest of Perth, before the air search was suspended, AMSA spokesman Sam Cardwell said.

They were there "maybe two hours" and they did not find anything, Cardwell said.

"They got a bit of time in, but it was not useful because there was no visibility," he said.

In a message on its Twitter account, AMSA said the bad weather was expected to last 24 hours.

Planes have been flying out of Perth for a week, looking without any success for objects spotted in vague satellite images, including the French one. [Emphasis added]

Just answer one question: If "it's possible the material drifted or sunk," why don't they look in the direction the current is flowing? They're intelligent people, they know more about these things than I do, right?

 

[kyredneck]

...Just answer one question: If "it's possible the material drifted or sunk," why don't they look in the direction the current is flowing? They're intelligent people, they know more about these things than I do, right?

You keep mentioning this aspect of the search as if you know something; how do you know that they are searching in the wrong direction? Where are you obtaining your 'drift data'?

Everything I've read indicates that they are indeed including 'drift data', or 'drift estimations', in their search efforts.

 

[thisnumbersdisconnected]

You keep mentioning this aspect of the search as if you know something; how do you know that they are searching in the wrong direction? Where are you obtaining your 'drift data'?

The Antarctic CP Current​

The ACC is arguably the "mightiest current in the oceans" (Pickard and Emery, 1990). Despite its relatively slow eastward flow of less than 20 cm s-1 in regions between the fronts, the ACC transports more water than any other current (Klinck and Nowlin, 2001). The ACC extends from the sea surface to depths of 2000-4000 m and can be as wide as 2000 km. This tremendous cross-sectional area allows for the current's large volume transport. The Antarctic Circumpolar Current's eastward flow is driven by strong westerly winds. The average wind speed between 40°S and 60°S is 15 to 24 knots with strongest winds typically between 45°S and 55°S. Historically, the ACC has been referred to as the 'West Wind Drift' because the prevailing westerly wind and current are both eastward.

Without the aid of continental reference point, except for the Drake Passage, where by convention, all flow through the Passage is the ACC, the current's boundaries are generally defined by zonal variations in specific water properties of the Southern Ocean (Gordon et al., 1977). Variations in these properties have been used to classify regions whose edges are defined by fronts, where there is rapid changes in water properties which occur over a short distance. North of the ACC is the Subtropical Convergence or Subtropical Front (STF), usually found between 35°S and 45°S, where the average Sea Surface Temperature (SST) changes from about 12°C to 7 to 8°C and salinity decreases from greater than 34.9 to 34.6 or less. Three fronts and three zones south of the STF and associated with the ACC are, from north to south; the Subantarctic Zone (SAZ), the Subantarctic Front (SAF), the Polar Frontal Zone (PFZ), the Polar Front (PF), the Antarctic Zone, and the Southern ACC Front. The Antarctic Convergence is approximately 200 km south of the Polar Front. In the Antarctic Convergence, summer SST varies between 3°C to 5°C, while winter SST varies between 1°C to 2°C. North of the SAF, average Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is greater than 4°C, while south of the Polar front, average SST is less than 2°C. A fourth zone, the Continental Zone, and the westward flowing Antarctic Coastal (or Polar) Current are located even further poleward, between the Southern Front and the Antarctic continent. SST poleward of 65°S is about -1.0°C (Deacon, 1984).

Additionally, media are finally beginning to talk about this factor, and eventually someone is going to catch onto the fact it doesn't add up.

The Guardian: MH370 search zone: rough seas and strong currents pose string of problems​

Simon Boxall, of the National Oceanography Centre in Southampton, told Henley that "the Antarctic circumpolar current runs at around one mile an hour, which may not sound a lot but in ocean terms is very fast. In four days … objects could have travelled 100 miles." By this reckoning, after 18 days, wreckage could be over 500 miles from where debris was spotted, and hundreds of miles farther from where the plane actually struck the water. A captain familiar with the region told CBC he thought 700 miles west of debris would be a good place to look for the wreck – as of last week.

You can see what the newspaper is talking about on this map.

The 3,200 mile radius for the maximum distance the flight could have reached flying and gliding is about 200 miles south of Perth. The search area is another 150 miles south of that 3,200 mile circle. (By the way, that corrects what I said a day or two ago -- I had the search area calculated much too far south. But it is still outside the max range of the plane.)

Keep in mind what was said in The Guardian article. In eighteen days, objects could have traveled over 500 miles. The fact is, high winds could have increase localized current speed and added another 500 miles to that total. The search for debris is in the wrong place. For the debris to be where they are looking, it would have started out 500 miles west of this search area, and that (considering current direction) would put the plane a good 700 miles outside the maximum range radius, since this location is at the southern apex of the radius. yet that is where the "experts" are saying to look for the plane's black boxes.

If the plane reached the max range at this location, debris would be about 450 miles straight south of Perth. If the plane reached the radius further west, debris would have been caught in the West Australia Current, and it would be about 400 miles off the coast of Australia, northwest of Perth. In another week, it would be practically washing up on Australian beaches, again, far north of Perth. I don't know what the satellites are finding, but it ain't Flight MH370.

Everything I've read indicates that they are indeed including 'drift data', or 'drift estimations', in their search efforts.

Wonderful. Now if they'd just try looking in the right place to begin with ...

For the record, I have no clue why they're doing this. Seems ludicrous. Fooling terrorists is a throw-away idea I had sometime ago, but this is a pretty elaborate setup for a ruse. Maybe they are just stupid, but that's doubtful. Any idea is as good as any other, I guess.

The content of this post, by the way, is called "reading and research." It often proves to be valuable.

 

[kyredneck]

Why don't you contact AMSA (see their website) and tell them these things that you know? It might prove to be the break they've been looking for.

I'm a river rat, for real, no pretending. Where I'm located large sections of the [dammed] river flows into the prevailing wind. Floating debris has two opposing forces acting upon it within these sections, current and wind, and, depending which is strongest at any given moment is the determining factor in which direction the debris will drift. Nothing is for certain at all times. The only constant is that the strongest force at any given moment will be the one that determines drift direction.