canadyjd
Well-Known Member
Reality check:
This same group predicted Hill:ry victory.
I guess we will see if their accuracy will continue.
peace to you
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GIANT RED WAVE COMING!
- Thread starter Benjamin
- Start date
This same group predicted Hill:ry victory.
I guess we will see if their accuracy will continue.
peace to you
Did you notice I didn’t claim such a thing? I responded to your question by showing you what I have publicly predicted.
Let me make it explicitly clear, no, I don’t foresee a 300+ margin win.
I’m impressed with your math skills.
Actually, they didn’t. They gave probabilities, just like they have given this year. They gave Trump about a 28.6% chance of winning to Clinton’s 71.4% chance.
If you know anything about probability, that means Trump had nearly a 1 is 3 chance of winning. And he did.
For the most part, their model was quite accurate. People simply interpreted it incorrectly, assuming that the American public would not be so foolish as to elect Trump.
I suspect they will be quite accurate.
And to be clear, Trump can still win. But if Trump does win, it is highly unlikely that we will know that tonight. It will likely take several weeks to count all the votes. If Biden wins Florida or Texas, Trump has almost no opportunity to win... Again, we need to count all the votes to be certain, and that will take a couple of weeks.
RighteousnessTemperance&
Well-Known Member
I noticed you avoided addressing the actual question, but thanks for the follow up.
Glad to help you out.
Sai
Well-Known Member
Blacks were the most merciful among the rapists thieves and murderers that I walked among in the 80’s while a teen and homeless outside the Los Angeles Greyhound station.
However, that was just one generation from those black families that thrived while still in segregation, had mothers and fathers in the home, had been in Vietnam, and were not what the black community is today.
America was never meant to replace the coming Kingdom of God on earth in Israel which will soon be here.
If Trump is elected it will be a miracle, it will be the outworking of Genesis 15 the blessing of him who blesses Israel. A vote for Biden is a curse of Israel and will bring a curse to America.
Joy unspeakable full of glory
Sai
Well-Known Member
What we serve are the Kings of the Fourth Beast of Daniel’s Times of the Gentiles.
Joy unspeakable full of glory
RighteousnessTemperance&
Well-Known Member
The model appears very skewed at best. A 10% chance of Trump winning vs a 12% chance of a 300+ margin Biden win sounds like nuts--loaded dice or loaded programmers.
I apologize, I misunderstood your initial question.
Yes, I think it is entirely realistic for Biden to win with more than a 300+ margin, although I think it is unlikely. As I pointed out before, my optimistic view is that Biden will get somewhere around 371 (not a 300+ margin, but a clear victory).
The fourth king/beast is the Roman Empire, which has already passed. The only remnant of the Roman Empire (other than structures) is the Roman Catholic Church, and that has little to do with the Roman Empire, except that the bishop of Rome obtained prominence during the Roman Empire and that became institutionalized.
It is from a compilation of historically accurate polls and polling methods, weighted according to known behavior and political structures.
Polling is both a mathematical science and an art. FiveThirtyEight is quite good at it.
canadyjd
Well-Known Member
Nice attempt at spin. Actually, Silv:r stated about 10 days out in 2016 and again 2020 that “this race is over!” declaring victory for Hil:ry and now for Bid:n.
But all valid ballots should be counted and states shouldn’t change the rules for valid ballots in the middle of the election
peace to you
In my experience, there is enormous compassion in the black community.
Please note, I am not black. My avatar is of Daryl Davis, a man I greatly admire. My personal experience with the KKK, is from a high school friend of mine who told me one day that he was a member of the KKK (showed me his membership card), and was quite upset to find out that my grandparents were nominally Roman Catholic and my mother’s side of the family was in the Holocaust (although, not Jewish), and were refugees after World War II. He verbally berated my family and then physically attacked me a bit later when I was not expecting it, damaging the cartilage in both of my knees. He ended up not graduating high school. Last time I tried looking him up, I discovered he has been arrested at least 31 times since 1984.
The Kingdom of God is already here. However, only those who are disciples of Jesus are part of it.
The New Jerusalem will descend from the heavens, re-uniting the full presence of God with humankind. It will cover all the earth, not just a part of the Middle East.
Political Israel (modern day Israel) is not God’s favored nation.
No, not at all.
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Do you have a credible link for those claims?
I listened to almost every 538 podcast in both the 2016 and 2020 campaigns, plus I’ve read many of their articles and updates, and I’ve never heard such a comment from Silver.
Moreover, Silver just posted an article pointing out that Trump has a way to win the election. That’s a LONG way from claiming “The race is over.”
I agree.
Reality checks:
By simply observing our surroundings we see the enthusiasm for the incumbent President is unmatched in modern times, it’s not even close.
If we see looting and burning in the streets, by that action alone there will be no doubt who the losers are. By their fruits we will know them.
Doubting Trump practically never pays off and the media forecasters against him are practically always proven wrong. This is nothing new: “Hillary Clinton has an 85% chance to win.”
History often has a way of repeating itself and there is nothing new under the sun with the media's forecasting:
Clinton heavily favored to win Electoral College: poll
Hillary Clinton's Odds to Win 2020 Election Soar
The results of Tuesday’s presidential election came as a surprise to nearly everyone who had been following the national and state election polling, which consistently projected Hillary Clinton as defeating Donald Trump. Relying largely on opinion polls, election forecasters put Clinton’s chance of winning at anywhere from 70% to as high as 99%, and pegged her as the heavy favorite to win a number of states such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that in the end were taken by Trump.
How could the polls have been so wrong about the state of the election?
By simply observing our surroundings we see the enthusiasm for the incumbent President is unmatched in modern times, it’s not even close.
If we see looting and burning in the streets, by that action alone there will be no doubt who the losers are. By their fruits we will know them.
Doubting Trump practically never pays off and the media forecasters against him are practically always proven wrong. This is nothing new: “Hillary Clinton has an 85% chance to win.”
History often has a way of repeating itself and there is nothing new under the sun with the media's forecasting:
Clinton heavily favored to win Electoral College: poll
Hillary Clinton's Odds to Win 2020 Election Soar
The results of Tuesday’s presidential election came as a surprise to nearly everyone who had been following the national and state election polling, which consistently projected Hillary Clinton as defeating Donald Trump. Relying largely on opinion polls, election forecasters put Clinton’s chance of winning at anywhere from 70% to as high as 99%, and pegged her as the heavy favorite to win a number of states such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that in the end were taken by Trump.
How could the polls have been so wrong about the state of the election?
Dan Bongino tweet today-
If Donald Trump wins again, despite
-Twitter
-Facebook
-Google
-The entire mainstream media
-The deep staters in the intel community
-The Hollywood hate machine
-and the cancel culture libs,
It’ll be the greatest political story ever told.
If Donald Trump wins again, despite
-The entire mainstream media
-The deep staters in the intel community
-The Hollywood hate machine
-and the cancel culture libs,
It’ll be the greatest political story ever told.
Sai
Well-Known Member
That is a mistake that was when theologians named the fourth beast Rome.
It according to Daniel would go thru stages which was what made it perplexing and unique to Daniel.
Rome was the first stage of the Fourth Beast the Empire of Imperialism.
Joy unspeakable full of glory