TomVols said:
I couldn't disagree more. Obama should be winning by 20 points. The fact that many polls still have this in the margin of error and all but a couple have this as a single digit race says something about the trepidation Americans have about an Obama presidency. It surely can't be that McCain has marshalled forces with extraordinary persuasion :laugh:
I couldn't disagree more, there has only been one democratic president in the last 30 years for obvious reasons. Most of the folks in the cities who would vote democratic aren't interested in politics and don't bother voting. This made the Republican machine which mostly contains rural "less government" conservatives dominant and able to win elections by primarily energizing their own base. They were also able to scare a few independents their way which doesn't seem as effective this election.
The reason Clinton, Carter and even Johnson got into office is because they were able to carry southern, rural red states because they were southern liberals. There is no way a Senator from IL can ever carry AR, TX or GA. This is why I thought Obama should have chosen Hillary. She would have stirred the southern waters and drawn the blue collar workers of the swing states. She was an all in one package.
The polls are close for several reasons. The biggest of which is the new interest Obama was able to drum up with liberal thinking people in the big cities. This is evident by the crowd of 100K in MO and is how he is leading in the polls. I don't recall an election like this where everyone is talking about it. You don't normally see it like this in the big cities.
I think the republican machine is as it normally is but the liberals have successfully gotten slightly ahead in the polls by bringing new voters to the booth. The conservatives know this is true which is why they are making such a big deal of normal activities like ACORN. They can't seem to increase their voter base so the key now is to reduce the liberals. What ACORN did has happened in every election but they've never worried about it because they know Michey Mouse doesn't turn out to vote.
However the ACORN scare tactic seems to be backfiring. Liberals are turning out for early voting in large numbers. They are making sure their vote is in, valid and will be counted come Nov 4th. The have scared them to the booths instead of away. I've never seen liberals involved in early voting like this election. The question is how many of these new voters will turn out and be able to vote? We know we can count on the republican faithfuls to show, the question is will these new voters actually vote?
If they vote Obama is in. If they don't McCain will win.
