Featured Trump winning the evangelical vote

Trump’s romp in Nevada shows why conventional wisdom about his ceiling may be wrong

"....The returns from last night’s Nevada caucuses cast doubt on three assumptions that are widely held and often repeated by Republican elites in Washington, who are perhaps too eager to assure one another that Donald Trump still cannot actually win the nomination.

The first is that Trump has a relatively low ceiling of support. With 100 percent of precincts reporting, Trump won the Silver State with 46 percent. He beat Marco Rubio by 22 points. Ted Cruz finished a close third with 21.4 percent. As the Washington Examiner’s Byron York writes, “If he has a ceiling, at least in Nevada, it is higher than earlier thought.”

The second is that Trump will ultimately be hobbled by a lack of organization. After his surprisingly soft second place finish in Iowa, many operatives concluded he would struggle to close the deal in future caucus states. Most of the coverage before last night said it was possible The Donald could lose in Nevada – despite leading in polls – because his rivals had built impressive ground games and his own supporters tend to be lower-propensity voters. Trump’s people proved last night that they will show up for caucuses.

The third is that, as the field of candidates condenses, every voter who is not currently for Trump will fall in line behind whoever emerges as his alternative. Many of Cruz’s voters actually look a lot like Trump voters demographically and ideologically. It should not be treated as a given that Cruz supporters would automatically move to Rubio if it becomes a two-man race. It stands to reason that many backing the Texan might prefer Trump over the other Cuban American senator, who continues to be dogged by his role in the Gang of Eight immigration bill....."

 

Wow, Trump won Nevada. Big Whoop. That's a blue state anyway. Ewe-idge turnout too--about 50,000 people.

If Trump continues to take about 30% of the delegates in the primaries with proportional delegate allocation, but he loses the "winner take all" states of Florida (Rubio's home state) and/or Ohio (Kasich's home state) he won't have enough delegates to lock up the nomination on the first ballot at the convention. If this scenario with Florida and Ohio plays out, after the first binding vote at the convention shows Trump falls short, anything can happen.

So really, the only thing that has to happen for Trump to not "automatically" get the nomination is for Kasich to win Ohio or Rubio to win Florida. At that point the RNC can do whatever they feel necessary to oust Trump from the nomination. Shouldn't be hard.

 

And you'd approve of any dirty tactic whatsoever to deny Trump the nomination? Even if it would mean Trump would be justified to run third party himself and consequently throw the election to Hillary?

 

Trumps whole purpose is to ensure a win for the Dems. I will always believe he is a Trojan horse and we have an extremely gullible electorate. I will be writing in a candidate if Trump gets the nomination. I will not vote for him. And I will never underestimate the GOP power to snack defeat from the jaws of victory again. If he is the nominee I will be done with the GOP. It's about time for a new party anyways.

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I think as the race condenses, you're gonna see more and more of the other candidates going toward Trump. I'm already seeing more and more comments from evangelicals who feel like he's the inevitable candidate so they've already started positioning themselves to believe he's the best candidate. And they will vote for him.

My response to them however would be, "Why vote for the surrogate

when you can vote for the real thing?

 

I agree. If all Southern Baptists ALONE formed a new party and overwhelmingly always supported our aligned with Christ nominees, things could get interesting.

But then again, I don't know that we need to be so closely affiliated with party politics even if it is our own formed party.

 

What dirty tactic? If he doesn't win on the first ballot at the convention, the deal making starts. Then we will see that Trump just doesn't always come out winning and making good deals. Ha!

 

So what? That is what news is for to be informed.

 

*Mounting a third party run IF HE WINS the nomination. You approve of that in order to stop him from becoming POTUS? Even if it meant Hillary would become POTUS?

Donald Trump is well on his way to the 1,237 delegates he needs to be the GOP nominee

"Presidential politics is, at its core, all about math. Nowhere is that more true than in the fight for delegates to this summer’s Republican National Convention. And, the delegate math is close to conclusive: Donald Trump will be extremely close to the 1,237 delegates he needs to formally
claim the party’s nomination by the end of the primary process....."

* [add] I incorrectly worded in post #23. This is what I'm referring to:

Will U.S. Conservatives Mount a Third-Party Challenge If Trump Is the Nominee?

...not a brokered convention.

 

I would also add the word Stupidity.

 

I am still waiting to hear how he plans to make Mexico pay for his Wall...

 

Because he's a terrific businessman and knows how to make a deal.

Psssst. Somebody remind him about Trump Airlines and Trump Vodka and Trump Magazine and let's not forget Trump University.Rolleyes

 

He's going to put a surcharge on money transfers to Mexico and increase the cost of obtaining a visa for Mexicans to come to the U.S.

That ought to raise about $10,000...

 

Carter's was an act. The secret Service has finally outed that hypocrite.

 

Secret Service Hated Jimmy Carter

 

Soooo.. what are you talking about?

 

The chances of a brokered convention are slim as of right now - the RNC require that a nominee must win a majority in at least eight states, so there is no way somebody out of it altogether like Christie or Romney is going to be the nominee.

The current delegate countis NOT directly proportional:

1. Donald Trump: 81
2. Ted Cruz: 17
3. Marco Rubio: 17
4. John Kasich: 6
5. Jeb Bush: 4
6. Ben Carson: 4
7. Carly Fiorina: 1
8. Rand Paul: 1
9. Not yet allocated: 2,341

Anybody ahead by the slimmest of lead by March 15 will win it this time,

 

The nomination process is not automatic. A candidate must receive 1,237 delegate votes on the floor of the Republican National Convention to become the nominee. Delegates are bound to vote as their state went in the primaries and caucuses. If someone doesn't attain 1,237 on the first vote, delegates are released from being bound by their original vote and can vote for someone else. This never happens on a large scale nowadays, but 100 years ago and longer, it was commonplace.

It's important to note that if things progress the way they are currently going, that is, Trump garners 30% of the delegates he needs to win Florida and Ohio, which are winner take all, to possibly get to 1,237 delegates. If he loses either of these states he likely will not have 1,237 heading into the convention. A brokered convention is a very real possibility.