Trump’s romp in Nevada shows why conventional wisdom about his ceiling may be wrong
"....The returns from last night’s Nevada caucuses cast doubt on three assumptions that are widely held and often repeated by Republican elites in Washington, who are perhaps too eager to assure one another that Donald Trump still cannot actually win the nomination.
The first is that Trump has a relatively low ceiling of support. With 100 percent of precincts reporting, Trump won the Silver State with 46 percent. He beat Marco Rubio by 22 points. Ted Cruz finished a close third with 21.4 percent. As the Washington Examiner’s Byron York writes, “If he has a ceiling, at least in Nevada, it is higher than earlier thought.”
The second is that Trump will ultimately be hobbled by a lack of organization. After his surprisingly soft second place finish in Iowa, many operatives concluded he would struggle to close the deal in future caucus states. Most of the coverage before last night said it was possible The Donald could lose in Nevada – despite leading in polls – because his rivals had built impressive ground games and his own supporters tend to be lower-propensity voters. Trump’s people proved last night that they will show up for caucuses.
The third is that, as the field of candidates condenses, every voter who is not currently for Trump will fall in line behind whoever emerges as his alternative. Many of Cruz’s voters actually look a lot like Trump voters demographically and ideologically. It should not be treated as a given that Cruz supporters would automatically move to Rubio if it becomes a two-man race. It stands to reason that many backing the Texan might prefer Trump over the other Cuban American senator, who continues to be dogged by his role in the Gang of Eight immigration bill....."
